Key Message Update

Above-average production expected to drive improved income from crop sales and casual labor

May 2021

May 2021

June - September 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The ongoing harvests and seasonally high availability of agricultural labor are improving food availability and access across the country. As a result, widespread Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present and expected to persist through September. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are primarily expected in southern and western areas where crop production was negatively impacted by excessive rainfall, and household income continues to be constrained. Urban areas are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as poor households are likely to meet their basic food needs but are expected to continue having difficulty earning income for non-food purchases.

  • Due to the significantly above-average 2021 harvest, the government has suspended all formal maize grain and maize meal imports. Grain deliveries to the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) are set to increase as harvesting and drying of grain to recommended moisture levels progress. Maize grain supply on the open markets is gradually improving as harvesting continues, although grain supply is expected to be affected by low demand, especially in surplus-producing areas and the government directive for farmers to deliver all surplus grain to the GMB.

  • Maize grain prices on the open markets are decreasing, with prices dropping by 15 percent across some monitored markets between March and April. Still, prices remain high impacting access for market-dependent poor households. Also, prices for other food and non-food items continue to increase. Though the official annual inflation rate in May decreased to 162 percent from 194 percent in April, it still remains high. The monthly inflation rate increased to 2.5 percent from 1.6 percent over the same period.

  • Household income is expected to be above-average during the post-harvest period due to the anticipated above-normal crop sales and agricultural labor, especially in surplus-producing areas. Income from livestock sales and seasonal livelihood activities like vegetable production and sales, brick making, construction, and artisanal mining is expected to be near-normal. Above-average water availability and access are expected in most areas to drive near-normal engagement in income-earning activities. However, even with the favorable 2020/21 rainfall season, the water supply in some typical semi-arid areas is expected to be seasonally depleted partly due to limited water holding capacity. This will likely drive declines in water availability for domestic, livestock, and other livelihood uses through October.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics