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- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to emerge in October in several typical deficit-producing areas in the south, east, west, and extreme north, as an increasing number of households are anticipated to exhaust their own-produced food stocks early and become market-reliant amid below-average purchasing power. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through September across these areas, with most households meeting their basic food needs from the 2026 harvest as well as income from casual labor and other livelihood activities. Nevertheless, poor households in deficit-producing areas currently cannot afford essential non-food items due to below-average incomes and high prices.
- Staple food prices remain high in typical deficit-producing areas as market supply is constrained. Grain supplies in these areas remain low, with only limited farmer-to-farmer sales. Low supply is driving above-average maize grain prices, ranging between 0.34-0.57 USD/kilogram (kg), according to key informants. Poor households are purchasing widely available maize meal, prices for which are stable and generally affordable when considering the added cost of milling for unprocessed grain. In surplus-producing areas, staple food prices are low, reflecting the above-average 2026 harvest and well-stocked markets. In these areas, maize grain prices averaged 0.22 USD/kg – 30 percent lower than the same time last year and the previous month – according to key informants.
- Cash and in-kind remittances are likely to decline as Zimbabweans residing in South Africa continue to repatriate amid xenophobic-related social and economic attacks in South Africa. This will mainly impact the southern areas of the country, which had high proportions of households depending on remittances from South Africa. The government reported over 115,000 returnees through the Beitbridge Border Post from the end of May through the end of July, a third of whom returned using government assistance. The government of Zimbabwe, UN agencies, and other non-government and community-based organizations are mobilizing resources and supporting documentation, food, transportation, health services, temporary shelter, and long-term reintegration initiatives for returnees.
- Gasoline (petrol) and diesel prices remain around 25 percent and 28 percent higher, respectively, than before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East in February 2026, despite marginal price adjustments in July by the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority. Public transport fares remain elevated at 50 to 100 percent above February 2026 levels, contributing to constrained purchasing power among poor households, especially in urban areas. However, prices for most non-staple cereal basic foods and other commodities, inflation, and exchange rates have remained relatively stable.
- The government has instituted preparedness and mitigation plans to respond to El Niño through the coming year. Historically, El Niño events in Zimbabwe resulted in below-average precipitation levels. To prepare and mitigate against the impacts of El Niño, the government's plans include boosting the national Strategic Grain Reserve that will enhance government capacity to respond to likely increased humanitarian needs, and potentially allowing for early grain imports by the private sector and individuals, which will augment national grain availability and moderate grain prices. The plans also aim to reduce vulnerability to poor rainfall by promoting conservation agriculture (pfumvudza/intwasa), short-season and early-maturing seed varieties, drought-tolerant crops, expanding irrigated land, preventing livestock losses by producing and stockpiling livestock supplementary feeds, and improving access to finance and facilitating agricultural insurance. Some non-governmental and community-based organizations are also releasing mitigation and response plans and mobilizing resources to mitigate the impacts of El Niño.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Zimbabwe Key Message Update July 2026 - January 2027: Food access likely to decline in late 2026 amid high cereal prices in deficit areas, 2026.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.