Below-normal incomes are impacting market access as the 2024/25 lean season begins early

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Just two to three months after the harvest, at least one in five households in the typical deficit-producing areas in the south, east, west, and extreme north, as well as some typical surplus-producing areas in the north, are likely engaging in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to meet their food needs following the poor 2024 harvest and early start to the 2024/25 lean season. Households that were able to harvest have likely already exhausted their own produced food stocks, while limited access to income and high food prices are keeping household purchasing capacity low. Only a few areas in the Mashonaland Provinces and other places are likely still area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2), although an increasing proportion of households in these areas are engaging in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to meet their food needs. However, from October 2024 to January 2025, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across the country as an increasing number of households engage in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) coping strategies to meet their food needs.
In July, market supplies of staple grain remain very low, with stocks not available across most markets. Unlike during typical post-harvest periods, current prices of staple grain are equal to or higher than staple grain prices in February and March 2024, which typically is the peak of the lean season. Prices range between 9-12 USD per 17.5 kg bucket of maize, more than double the price (3-5 USD) retailed normally in July following an average harvest. Maize meal prices are between 20-25 percent higher than normal, retailing for 5.50-8.0 USD per 10 kg bag, compared to July 2023, when prices ranged between 4.50 and 6.50 USD. In general, USD, ZAR, and ZWG prices of other basic food commodities remain relatively stable, but prices are higher than what most low-income households can afford.
Most typical sources of income during the dry season remain significantly below normal, including crop sales, casual labor, and self-employment. The cotton marketing season has been extended by three weeks to July 31 as some farmers were still harvesting due to late planting earlier in the season. Livestock sales and income continue at below-normal levels, driven by below-normal demand, poor body conditions in some areas, and distressed sales and low prices, especially for cattle. In some areas, households are selling some of their livestock to purchase livestock supplementary feeds to support the rest of the herd. Some key informants have reported high chances of early dry-season cattle deaths in parts of the south due to critical pasture and water conditions. In urban areas, low-income households continue to realize below-normal income from typical activities such as petty trade/vending, self-employment, and others, compounded by high rental, transport, and utility costs.
Water access and availability are becoming increasingly critical through the dry season, affecting household engagement in livelihood activities across all typical low rainfall areas, as well as some high rainfall areas in the north and the eastern border areas. Households and livestock are primarily dependent on water from boreholes, but the increased demand and overuse of boreholes, a main source of water in most communities, is resulting in a high number of them drying up or breaking down due to mechanical faults. In some areas, households have to travel further away to access water, which reduces their opportunity to engage in other livelihood activities such as accessing food or income. However, water access and availability are expected to improve due to the anticipated average and timely start to the 2024/25 rainy season, with the emergence of La Niña ENSO conditions in August-October.
In July, most households continue to employ consumption-based coping measures such as skipping meals, reducing meal portions, or prioritizing the feeding of children and the ill, which are usually characteristic of the peak of the lean season. Some households in parts of the country that received grain from the government are relying on this food assistance as a main source of food. The government has reported plans to resume its school feeding program in rural and urban areas to help address food shortages, malnutrition, and school dropouts because of the drought. The government has also announced a 1.6 billion USD 2024/25 agricultural season crop input assistance plan to be financed by the government (40 percent) and the private sector (60 percent) to support engagement in the 2024/25 agricultural season and take advantage of the forecast average to above-average rainfall.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Zimbabwe Key Message Update July 2024: Below-normal incomes are impacting market access as the 2024/25 lean season begins early, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.