Likely favorable rainy season a potential consecutive second productive season

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Following the favorable 2025 cereal harvest, most rural households in both typical surplus- and deficit-producing areas continue to access food from own-produced stocks. FEWS NET estimates the harvests will likely support household food access in most areas through at least the end of the year, representing a significant improvement in food security conditions from the same time last year. By the end of 2025, an increasing number of households in deficit-producing areas will likely deplete their own-produced food stocks and increase market reliance to access food. Low-income urban households – who are mainly market dependent – will most likely continue to face food access challenges due to low, irregular, and mainly informal sector income negatively affecting purchasing power, compounded by the high rental, utility, transport and other costs. While humanitarian assistance needs are expected in late 2025 into early 2026, the level of food assistance needed is anticipated to be lower than both last year and average.
Income from ongoing crop sales is relatively low due to below-normal market demand, as many rural households are primarily consuming own-produced foods. Currently, there are insignificant to no grain flows from typical surplus- to deficit-producing areas, a scenario only seen following very favorable harvests when very few private traders typically would purchase grain from farmers in surplus areas for immediate sale to deficit areas or for speculative reasons. However, the movement of grain is likely to begin around October as more households start to deplete their stocks in deficit-producing areas and start relying on markets for grain. The Grain Marketing Board (GMB) has reportedly opened around 1,800 ward-based grain collection depots across the country to encourage farmers to sell to the GMB by facilitating easy delivery and lowering transportation costs for farmers. This year, the government liberalized the marketing of maize grain, with the GMB no longer the authorized sole buyer of grain from farmers.
The 2025 tobacco and cotton marketing seasons have officially ended. A record 353 million kilograms of tobacco were sold by farmers this season, nearly 50 percent higher than the five-year average and earning 1.2 billion USD, bolstering household incomes. Tobacco is Zimbabwe’s second-highest foreign currency earner after gold. Around 28,000 MT of cotton was marketed this season, slightly more than double last season. The production of winter wheat is on course; the area planted has reportedly surpassed the target of 120,000 hectares by about 2 percent. In recent years, wheat has been declared part of the country’s strategic grain reserves and is increasingly used for humanitarian food assistance distributions.
According to key informants, maize grain prices in both surplus- and deficit-producing areas are around 50 percent lower than the same time last year due to the above-average harvest and low market demand. There are currently very slight maize grain price differences between surplus- and deficit-producing areas. The prices are likely to marginally increase through the start of the peak lean season in January 2026, but will likely remain lower than last year and near the five-year average. Despite lower demand, maize meal prices have remained similar to last year and the five-year average, probably due to some commercial millers still using residual imported stocks ahead of the procurement of local 2025 stocks.
In August, exchange rates and ZWG and USD prices remained relatively stable, continuing a general trend starting in early 2025. The Zimbabwe National Statistical Agency (ZIMSTAT) reported August ZWG, USD, and blended (ZWG and USD) monthly inflation at near zero, down from 1.6, 0.3, and 0.6 percent, respectively, in July. The ZIMSTAT August ZWG national Food Poverty Datum Line and the national ZWG Total Consumption Poverty Datum Line were relatively stable, with a slight downward trend compared to July. The Food Poverty Line represents the amount of money that an individual requires to afford a daily minimum energy intake of 2,100 calories, while the Total Consumption Datum Line represents the minimum total income needed for an individual not to be deemed poor. Despite the relative price stability, poor households still face access challenges to basic goods and services on the market due to low purchasing power, especially in urban areas.
Poor households are earning income from a variety of activities, including crop and livestock sales, casual labor, vegetable production and sales, petty trade, construction activities, and artisanal mining. Due to favorable government policies, engagement in artisanal small-scale mining, especially for gold, has become widespread in gold-producing areas. Gold deliveries by these “secondary” producers to Fidelity Gold Refinery, a subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe and the country’s sole legal gold buyer, increased by 29 percent between January and July. Artisanal mining accounted for 73 percent of all gold deliveries to Fidelity Gold Refinery in July. The above-average 2025 harvest will likely promote in-kind payments (mainly with food crops) for labor through January 2026. However, cash and in-kind income may still be insufficient for poor households to meet their food needs towards the end of the year.
An anticipated weak La Niña will likely drive average to above-average rainfall in Zimbabwe for the start of the October 2025 to March 2026 rainy season. This will likely replenish surface and underground water resources; support cropped areas and favorable crop development at normal to above-normal levels; and enhance agricultural labor activities. The higher-than-normal availability of livestock supplementary feeds, such as the 2024/25 stover and hay (during the dry season), and the anticipated normal to above-normal 2025 pasture regeneration and water supply (with the 2025/26 rainy season), will likely enhance livestock conditions in semi-arid areas, especially in the southern, eastern, western, and far northern areas. This will likely avoid the distress livestock sales and deaths associated with the last few drought years. The rainfall is also likely to favor normal to above-normal occurrence and harvesting of Mopane worms (Gonimbrasia belina) in southern and western areas where they are widely consumed, providing a highly nutritious protein source and an important income source for poor households.
Due to the above-average 2024/25 rains and the likelihood of an average to above-average October 2025 to March 2026 rainy season, there is a risk of flooding and waterlogging in typical flood-prone areas of the country. Forecasts also indicate an average to above-average likelihood of tropical cyclones across the Southern Africa region, which may impact mainly the eastern parts of Zimbabwe. Tropical cyclones in the past have resulted in the loss of lives, destruction of infrastructure, and disrupted livelihoods in affected communities. Above-average temperatures are also expected between September and January. This could benefit crop production if there are no prolonged dry spells. However, associated risks include water and heat stress on crops and livestock; negative impacts on water bodies and cropping activities, such as weeding and fertilizer application; and chances of violent thunderstorms.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Zimbabwe Key Message Update August 2025: Likely favorable rainy season a potential consecutive second productive season, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.