Favorable 2025 harvest drives delays in typical onset of lean season

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in November across many typical deficit-producing areas in Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, Midlands and Manicaland provinces, and the far northern parts of the Mashonaland provinces. Own-produced food stocks this year are likely to last longer than typical following the above-average 2025 harvest, driving a delayed onset of the lean season. As households exhaust food from their own production and become market dependent with below-average purchasing power, moderate food consumption deficits will emerge. In early 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand in deficit-producing areas and to a few typical surplus-producing areas.
• Seasonal improvements in acute food insecurity are most likely countrywide in April and May 2026 with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes driven by the 2026 harvest. The forecast average 2025/26 rainfall is expected to support crop and livestock production and income from agricultural labor. The most likely 2026 above-average harvest will mark a second consecutive favorable harvest.
• The areas of highest concern are the worst-off typical deficit-producing areas facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Worst-off areas include locations impacted by the poor performance of the 2024/25 rainfall season, which, combined with late planting resulted in a short growing season and poor maturation of crops, reduced crop yields. In the south, excessive rainfall also negatively affected crop production. Typical income sources such as labor, self-employment, petty trade, and remittances are expected to be below typical levels, as is the Mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) harvest.
• Food assistance needs are expected to increase through the peak of the January to March 2026 lean season. Overall, food assistance needs are expected to be at near-average levels, though lower than the atypically high El-Niño-induced needs during the last 2024/25 lean season. Thereafter, food assistance needs are expected to decline with the availability of the 2026 harvest.

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 17, 2025.

Households in Zimbabwe typically rely on multiple on-farm and off-own-farm food and income sources to meet their food and non-food needs. However, food and cash crop production and livestock rearing are important to rural livelihoods. In the high-rainfall areas, largely in northern Zimbabwe, farmers typically have higher yields and produce staple crops like maize that can meet their food needs for most of the year, while earning income from the sale of surplus crops (Figure 1). However, in the lower-rainfall areas of southern, western, eastern, and extreme northern Zimbabwe, crop production tends to be lower and typically provides food stocks only for three to four months of the consumption year for most poor households. 

In surplus-producing northern areas, some farmers also grow cash crops such as tobacco, along with a variety of pulses/legumes, root crops, vegetables, and fruit. In the dry season (June-September), irrigated winter wheat is grown under commercial production. Maize, sorghum, and millet are grown for food in the deficit-producing areas, while cash crops like cotton are produced for income. Livestock, particularly cattle, are an important source of wealth and mainly reared by middle and better-off households across the country. Most livestock rearing occurs in the country's southern, eastern, western, and far northern parts. Small livestock, mainly goats and chickens, are reared by all household groups, with poor households regularly selling the animals to earn income to buy food and meet other needs. 

The main agricultural season occurs from October to May, with rainfall from November to Februarybeing particularly important for crop production. While households historically prepared their land and planted starting in October, the late onset of rainfall in recent years has resulted in planting in November or December. Rainfall in January and February is considered critical for harvest potential, as staple cereals are often in their reproductive and grain-filling stages. The green crop harvest occurs from February to March, with the main harvest taking place from April through June. Zimbabwe is prone to weather shocks, particularly drought during the October to March rainy season, negatively impacting crop and livestock production and other livelihoods. Most recently, El Niño-driven droughts in 2015/16, 2019/20, and 2023/24 resulted in poor and sometimes failed harvests. 

Households also engage in off-own-farm income-earning opportunities such as casual labor, self-employment, petty trade, crafts, artisanal mining, and the sale of wild foods (including fruits, vegetables, and Mopane worms [Gonimbrasia belina], and thatch grass to earn income. Some households also rely on remittances from relatives in urban areas and abroad. Labor opportunities vary seasonally and are mainly linked to agricultural production and marketing chain activities. Poor urban households also engage in urban and peri-urban agriculture to help meet their food needs. 

Over the last two decades, Zimbabwe has experienced significant economic volatility, characterized by foreign currency shortages, highly unstable exchange rates and prices, and high inflation. However, macroeconomic stability has been observed in 2025, with notable exchange rate stability and significant reductions in inflation. A multicurrency regime continues, consisting mainly of the local ZWG, the USD, and the ZAR in southern areas. Poor households mainly depend on informal markets where prices are cheaper and USD/ZAR-dominated, as these households are often paid in USD/ZAR for casual labor, self-employment, and other informal income-earning opportunities.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Zimbabwe Key Message Updates: August and September 2025
• Latest Zimbabwe Key Message Update: July 2025
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis 

Cereal production: The government’s most recent post-harvest survey estimates the 2025 maize harvest at 1.8 million metric tons (MT), 30 percent above the 10-year production average (based on the second-round annual crop assessments). This is a 20 percent reduction from the April estimates of 2.3 million MT. Total 2025 cereal (maize and small grains) production was reassessed at 2.24 million MT, nearly 25 percent above the five-year average; however, this is 25 percent down from the second-round assessment of 2.93 million MT. 

Despite the above-average harvest, Zimbabwe still faces a potential cereal supply deficit for the 2025/26 marketing year. In anticipation of the deficit, the government is reportedly allowing commercial millers, processors, and stock feed producers to import maize, supplementing national supplies following an earlier ban.

Macroeconomic conditions: The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with relatively stable formal and informal currency exchange rates, prices, and monthly inflation since the beginning of the year (Figure 2). However, despite relative price stability and the easing of short-term price pressures, limited disposable income among poor households and relatively high prices continue to negatively impact their purchasing power and access to markets. In urban areas, this is compounded by high rental, transport, utilities, and other costs. 

Market supply and food prices: Grain flows from typical surplus-producing areas in the Mashonaland provinces and other parts of the country to deficit-producing areas are atypically low, partly due to reportedly low household/farmer surplus stock levels in surplus-producing areas, driving reduced market supply and reliance on maize meal in some deficit areas. Non-cereal basic food commodities are readily available on the formal and informal markets, with local products increasingly dominating the market. As market demand for maize grain increases, seasonal price increases are being recorded. While the maize grain prices across most markets are 30-40 percent lower than the same time last year, they remain above average. 

Rangeland resources: Water and pastures are available for livestock consumption across much of the countryHowever, despite the improved conditions relative to last year, water and pasture conditions are deteriorating ahead of the rainy season across most typical low-rainfall areas in Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, Midlands, parts of Manicaland, and the far northern areas of the Mashonaland provinces. The national average dam level at the end of September was 79 percent full, compared to the approximately 65 percent typically expected at this time of the year. The government’s September post-harvest survey indicates that 85 percent of cattle-owning households reported adequate water for their herds, with 73 percent and 25 percent of households reporting their cattle to be in fair and good conditions, respectively. 

Income sources: Income from seasonal food crop sales is atypically low, except in a few areas which recorded high production. Despite above-average production nationally, which includes yields from commercial growers, household-level harvests were variable, limiting income potential. Multiple factors are contributing to the current below-average income from food crop sales, including insufficient crop stocks to sell after household consumption or consumption reserves, and holding stocks to sell at higher prices during the peak lean season. Income from tobacco sales in the main tobacco-growing areas in the three Mashonaland provinces and Manicaland Province was above average this marketing season (which ended in September), following a  record sale of nearly 355 million kilograms (kg) of tobacco (50 percent above last year and the five-year average). 

Small livestock sales and prices and related income are near-average levels with limited distress sales, but cattle sales are atypically low in many areas, a residual impact of localized cattle losses in the preceding years; however, cattle prices are higher than last year. 

The poor (and in most areas failed) harvest of Mopane worms in Matabeleland South and North provinces and southern parts of Masvingo and Midlands provinces during the 2024/25 harvest season has resulted in no current seasonal income. Seasonal income-earning opportunities of vegetable production and sales, brick making, and construction are back to near typical levels (after lower levels last season) driven by favorable water availability and access. Informal artisanal and small-scale mining and income, especially from gold, is favorable across most parts of the country, with associated labor migration to gold-producing areas. Income from petty trade is atypically low due to high competition. Cross-border trade activities and related income have decreased across the country following government measures which were reinforced from the end of last year to control illegal and informal imports. International remittances for poor households are generally below typical levels, having declined in both value and frequency due to depressed in-kind and cash remittance flows from mainly South Africa, especially in the southern areas of Matabeleland South and North provinces and Masvingo and Midlands provinces.

Humanitarian food assistance

While discussions between the government and partners are underway for 2025/26 lean season food assistance, food assistance plans are currently unavailable.

Deficit-producing areas

Unlike in years following poor harvests, where food consumption deficits start emerging in September/October,  Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is not widespread across the country; however, consumption deficits are likely ongoing among at least 20 percent of the population in areas of Kariba District. In Kariba District, a chronically food-insecure deficit-producing district in the northwest Mashonaland West Province,  poor households long exhausted food from own production and are market dependent for food access. This district recorded a very poor 2025 harvest. The Ministry of Agriculture’s second-round crop assessment reported Kariba only had cereal available for up to three months following the harvest. Households have below-average income from agricultural labor and are relying on other income sources; however, total income from these sources is below average. This is driving below average purchasing power and household ability to access food. As a result, moderate food consumption deficits are ongoing in Kariba District. 

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are currently ongoing across most deficit-producing areas as households slowly deplete their own-produced food stocks. Households are barely able to meet their minimum food needs using the remaining stocks and/or limited income. Due to low income, households are unable to meet their non-food needs. Some households are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and are atypically market dependent amid below-average purchasing power. 

Surplus-producing areas

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are ongoing, mainly in the northern surplus-producing Mashonaland Provinces, as households are able to meet their food and non-food needs. Most households in these areas are still consuming own-produced food stocks. Income from crop sales and other sources is supplementing basic food and non-food needs. However, some households’ food stocks in typical high-producing areas that were negatively affected by a poor 2024/25 rainfall season are atypically depleting and are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

Urban areas

Urban areas are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with some households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Income for poor households (from activities like petty trade, self-employment, remittances, and informal and formal employment) is below typical levels, and households can meet their minimum food needs but not their non-food needs amid above-average prices. Atypically high rental, transport, utilities, and other costs are compounding the situation for these households. Most poor households prefer to purchase from informal markets where prices are relatively cheaper compared to formal supermarkets, and where small commodity units are available.

• Cumulative rainfall for the October 2025 to March 2026 season is expected to be average, with average rainfall at the start of the season from October to December.
• An above-average number of tropical cyclones and tropical storms across the Southern Africa region is anticipated and likely to affect parts of Zimbabwe. Tropical cyclones in the past have resulted in the loss of lives, destruction of infrastructure, and disrupted livelihoods in affected communities.
• Own-produced cereal stocks are expected to be available at the household level through the peak lean season in early 2026 in some typical surplus-producing areas. However, households in districts that received unfavorable rainfall in these areas will deplete stocks atypically early.
• Despite the anticipated availability of cropping inputs (e.g., seeds and fertilizers) on the market for the 2025/26 agricultural season, access to agricultural inputs for poor households is expected to be constrained due to limited disposable income and relatively high input prices. As a result, a high proportion of poor households are expected to rely on government crop input assistance, retained seeds, and other sources. Overall, area planted and seasonal labor availability are expected to be above average, though labor rates are expected to be below average.
• The 2025/26 harvest is expected to be above average due to favorable rainfall facilitating crop development and expected above-average area planted.
• The relative stability in formal and informal exchange rates is expected throughout the projection period. This is expected to drive stable prices of basic goods and services in local and foreign currencies (mainly USD and ZAR). . Poor households, however, are expected to continue experiencing access challenges to market purchases due to constrained disposable income.
• Maize grain supplies on the open markets will likely remain below average through early 2026 due to relatively low supply from farmers, despite increased demand. This is expected to drive above-average grain prices across all areas, albeit lower than last year. As a result, an increasing number of households will rely on maize meal. Maize meal supplies and prices are expected to be typical as commercial millers are expected to rely on imports following the government reportedly granting an allowance for imports. However, as maize grain supply increases with the availability of the 2026 harvest in April/May, grain prices are expected to decline.  
• Typical water availability and access are expected in most areas through the start of the 2025/26 rainy season around November. Water challenges are expected in most typical low-rainfall areas as water tables and borehole yields decline, with surface water sources long depleted. Water availability and access are expected to improve to average levels with the start of the 2025/26 rainy season in November.
• Pasture conditions are expected to be fair in high-rainfall areas through the start of the 2025/26 rainy season. While significantly better than last year, pasture conditions in semi-arid areas are expected to progressively deteriorate and become poor until the rains start. With the start of rains in November, pasture conditions are expected to improve across most areas through May 2026 to average levels.
• Livestock conditions are expected to remain fair to good, with livestock prices significantly higher than the same time last year but near average throughout the projection period. Livestock price reductions are expected through the end of the dry season and will increase with the start of the rains in November, following seasonal trends at average levels thereafter.
• Income-earning opportunities from informal artisanal and small-scale mining are expected to remain at above-average levels due to favorable government support measures. However, income from petty trade is likely to remain atypically low due to increased engagement and competition and low disposable income in some communities.
• Remittances (mainly from South Africa) are also likely to remain atypically low throughout the projection period. 

Humanitarian food assistance

• Details on humanitarian food assistance deliveries from the government and partners were not available at the time of the analysis. Therefore, this analysis does not include the impacts of humanitarian food assistance.

Deficit-producing areas

From October 2025 to January 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across typical deficit-producing areas of Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, Manicaland, Midlands, and the far northern parts of the Mashonaland provinces. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is most likely in areas that received poor harvests with below-average income. Own-produced food stocks are expected to be depleted between November and December in areas affected by poor early-season rainfall and erratic, below-average, or excessive rainfall later in the 2025/26 season. By December, most poor households are likely to be market dependent, but low incomes will constrain access to markets, leading to food consumption gaps. Poor households in these areas are expected to increasingly engage in consumption and livelihood coping strategies as the lean season peaks in December, including skipping meals, reducing portion sizes, borrowing or buying food on credit, labor migration, and selling productive assets. The forecasted average 2025/26 rainfall season will likely support the availability of wild foods (fruits, vegetables, and other natural products) for consumption and sale. However, Mopane worm availability in southern and western districts is expected to remain atypically low due to poor recovery after two below-average rainfall seasons, resulting in very limited consumption and income from this source. The seasonal improvements in wild foods are unlikely to offset food consumption gaps among the worst-affected households. 

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are most likely in areas where own-produced stocks will last longer or household income remains near typical; poor households are likely to meet their minimum food needs, but struggle to afford other non-food and household needs.     

At the peak of the lean season in February and March 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand across deficit-producing areas and some typical surplus-producing areas as food prices peak and more households are market dependent with below-average purchasing power, having depleted their own-produced stocks. Households will experience increasing food consumption gaps and poor households will continue to employ livelihood and consumption coping strategies. The green harvest (February-March) will slightly improve food access; however, moderate food consumption deficits are most likely. From April to May, the main harvest is expected to improve food availability and access, with many households starting to consume food from their own production. As a result, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and even Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely.  

Surplus-producing areas 

From October 2025 to January 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in some of the worst-affected high rainfall- and surplus-producingareas in the Mashonaland Provinces, including northwestern areas of Mashonaland West, due to atypically depleted own-produced food stocks and reduced income from cash crops like tobacco following poor rainfall and harvests. Most other areas in the Mashonaland Provinces are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, as below-average harvests and incomes support minimal food, but not non-food, needs. The more productiveresettlement areas are expected to rely on income from crop sales and other typical income sources like seasonal labor, although at below-typical levels.

From February to March 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in a few areas, while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist across most surplus-producing areas. In areas where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge, households are expected to face moderate food consumption deficits as they are heavily market dependent for food with below-average purchasing power. Food consumption gaps are likely to peak during the February-March lean season, with green harvests insufficient to change classifications. Typical main harvests and income from crop sales in April-May will improve food access, supporting improvements to Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

Urban areas

In urban areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected throughout May 2026. Typical incomes for poor households — including from petty trade, self-employment, remittances, and formal and informal work — are likely to remain atypically low, limiting household purchasing power. Poor urban households are expected to meet only their minimum food needs and will continue to face difficulty accessing non-food essentials amid sustained above-average rental, transport, and utilities costs. From April 2026, above-average harvests are expected, allowing poor households engaged in peri-urban and urban agriculture to rely on own-produced food stocks or in-kind crop remittances. Seasonal declines in staple and other food prices will improve food access but are not anticipated to alleviate Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Below-average 2025/26 rainfall occurs. 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Below-average rainfall during the 2025/26 rainfall season will negatively impact crop and livestock production, as well as some seasonal livelihoods and income. As a result, agricultural labor opportunities and labor rates (cash and in-kind) will likely be atypically low. The prospects of green harvests around February/March will be reduced, as will the main harvest from April to May, preventing the anticipated improvement of food security outcomes from harvests and own-produced food stocks. Poor rains will also affect water and pasture conditions, impacting livestock (mainly cattle) body conditions, sales, and prices. The availability of seasonal fruits and other wild products, such as Mopane worms in the southern and western areas, will also be affected. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes could continue in typical deficit-producing areas with mainly Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in typical surplus-producing areas.

A significant decline in macroeconomic conditions and limited maize imports occurs.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: If exchange rates become volatile, this will likely increase prices of basic food and other non-food commodities and services on the markets, further negatively impacting poor households’ access to markets. Conversely, if no or very limited maize grain imports are allowed, there will likely be national grain shortages that will reduce maize meal availability and increase prices, impacting poor households’ access to staple cereal in the absence of own-produced food stocks. This may result in increased populations experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.