Atypical countrywide Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until start of 2024/25 harvests

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected throughout the country from October 2024 through May 2025. Following the 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought, own-produced food stocks are widely unavailable, even in typical surplus-producing areas, while high prices and below-average income are constraining access to markets. As a result, higher-than-normal food assistance needs are expected throughout the annual lean season. 
• Although seasonal improvements in income are expected with the beginning of the main agricultural season in November and December, and although green harvests are likely to begin in January or February, outcomes are not expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until April or May with the arrival of anticipated near-normal harvests.
• The areas of highest concern are likely to be typical deficit-producing areas, where larger portions of the population are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. However, given extensive crop losses in both typical surplus- and deficit-producing areas during the 2023/24 agricultural season, as well as negative impacts to livelihoods and prices, all rural and urban areas are likely to be negatively affected. Humanitarian food assistance needs are expected to be at near-record levels in both rural and urban areas throughout the outlook period. 
• Some improvements in water availability and access and pasture and livestock body conditions are expected after the start of the 2024/25 rainy season, alleviating the critical conditions caused by the El Nino-induced drought. However, lingering impacts of last season’s drought are expected and will continue to negatively impact livelihoods such as casual labor demand and payment rates, self-employment opportunities, income from livestock sales, among others, throughout the outlook period.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook: June 2024 to January 2025 
• Latest Zimbabwe Key Message Update: September 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 

Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected from October 2024 through May 2025, mainly driven by significantly below-normal 2024 crop harvests and constrained household incomes. Most typical livelihood and coping activities and income sources are expected to remain at below-normal levels, with a high proportion of the population unable to cover food consumption gaps. Prices of food and other basic commodities and services will likely remain higher than average, constraining market access, especially for poor households. However, the situation is expected to improve around April/May 2025 with the start of the main harvests. 

Significantly below-normal 2023/24 crop production due to El Niño-induced drought has critically affected own-produced food sources, reduced income from food and cash crop sales, and resulted in a 2024/25 national cereal deficit of around 1 million MT. As a result, the majority of households across the country lack access to own-produced food stocks. Given the forecast for a normal 2024/25 rainy season, on-farm labor opportunities will likely improve, although wage rates are likely to remain below average, constrained by poor liquidity and above-average competition. Households are expected to pursue a variety of methods to procure agricultural inputs to ensure near-normal cropped area, but yields may vary depending on the quality of inputs procured. The government crop input scheme is expected to be a main source of inputs for most poor and other households.  

The poor 2023/24 rainfall season has severely affected water and pasture conditions, with widespread negative impacts on livelihood activities, including livestock production, casual labor, and self-employment activities like brickmaking and construction, in addition to crop production. Across most typical low-rainfall areas, surface water sources (streams, rivers, weirs, dams) are dry. River-bed sand-scooping for water is common, posing a health risk to people. Water tables have receded significantly, affecting borehole yields in many communities, and people and livestock are traveling longer and further than usual for water. The situation is not expected to improve until after the onset of the rainy season. 

Due to poor water availability and poor pasture conditions, livestock body conditions are generally fair to poor, especially for cattle. The worst affected region is Matabeleland South Province, where 3,500 cattle deaths were recorded between April and September. Ongoing cattle losses are compounding last year’s above-normal rate of cattle deaths, resulting in significantly reduced herd sizes for most households. Seeking to cushion themselves from losses due to livestock deaths, some households continue to engage in distress sales, especially in typically low-rainfall areas. As a result, livestock prices in some areas have dropped to less than half of the typical prices this time of the year, negatively impacting household incomes. Despite the forecast for a normal 2024/25 rainy season, livestock body conditions are only expected to improve gradually starting in early 2025 after pasture conditions have regenerated. 

Already above-average prices for staple foods and other food and non-food commodities are expected to continue increasing, constraining purchasing power for poor households and reducing access to markets, exacerbated by the annual lean season. The official devaluation of the local currency (ZWG) at the end of September has driven significant increases in the prices of goods and services. Staple maize grain and small grains are expected to remain largely unavailable on the open markets throughout the outlook period. Where available, prices are expected to be up to 100 percent above normal. Maize meal is expected to be readily available, though prices will remain above normal in both formal and informal markets, just like other basic food and non-food commodities. 

Given the atypically long and unusually severe 2024/25 lean season, humanitarian food assistance needs are anticipated to be above normal countrywide throughout the outlook period,including in typically surplus-producing parts of the Mashonaland Provinces, which normally experience very low assistance needs.

Households in Zimbabwe typically rely on various on-farm and off-farm food and income sources to meet their food and non-food needs. Food and cash crop production and livestock rearing are important to rural livelihoods. In the high-rainfall areas, largely in northern Zimbabwe, farmers typically have higher yields and produce staple crops like maize that can meet their food needs for most of the year, while they earn income from the sale of surplus crops. However, in the lower-rainfall areas of southern, western, eastern, and extreme northern Zimbabwe, crop production tends to be lower and typically provides food stocks only for three to four months of the consumption year for poor households in most of these areas. 

In the surplus-producing northern areas, farmers also grow cash crops such as tobacco, along with a diversity of pulses/legumes, root crops, vegetables, and fruit. In the dry season, from June to September, wheat is grown with irrigation under commercial production. However, maize, sorghum, and millets are grown for food in the deficit-producing areas, while cash crops like cotton are produced for income. Livestock, particularly cattle, are an important source of wealth and are mainly reared by better-off and middle-income households across the country. But most livestock rearing is in the country's southern, eastern, and western parts. Small livestock, mainly goats and chickens, are reared by all household groups, with poor households regularly selling them to earn income to buy food and meet other family needs. 

The main agricultural season occurs from October to May, with rainfall from November to February being particularly important for crop production. Households typically prepare their land and plant from October to December, with rainfall in January and February considered critical for harvest potential, as staple cereals are often in their reproductive and grain-filling stages at this time. The green harvest of crops occurs from February to March, with the main harvest taking place from April through June. Unfortunately, Zimbabwe is prone to weather shocks, particularly drought, which frequently drives below-average to significantly below-average rainfall during the October to March rainy season, negatively impacting crop and livestock production and other livelihoods. Most recently, El Niño events drove droughts in 2015/16, 2019/20, and 2023/24, resulting in poor and even failed harvests. 

Households often engage in off-own farm income-earning opportunities such as petty trade, casual labor, self-employment, crafts, artisanal mining, and the sale of wild produce such as fruits, vegetables, grass, and Mopane worms to earn income for food purchases. Some households also rely on remittances from family members in urban areas and abroad. Labor opportunities increase seasonally and are linked to agricultural production and marketing chain activity. Poor households in urban areas also engage in urban and peri-urban agriculture to help meet their food needs.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section. 

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards 

Weather

The El Niño-induced drought during the 2023/24 rainy season was marked by a historic dry spell compounded by very high temperatures from mid-January into March 2024. A late start of the season (in mid- to late December) and a very early cessation of rainfall in mid-January worsened the situation. For some northern areas, such as parts of Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland West, and Midlands Provinces, this was the driest mid-January through March period on record, with other parts of the country recording their second or third driest period on record for this time frame. Overall, cumulative rainfall was 65 to 90 percent of the 40-year average across much of the country, with parts of the Mashonaland Provinces recording 45 to 60 percent of the 40-year average. With cumulative 2023/24 rainfall less than 50 percent of normal across most typical low rainfall areas, surface water sources (streams, rivers, weirs, dams) are predominantly dry, causing water shortages for human and animal consumption and other livelihood and economic uses. Given poor groundwater recharge during the last rainfall season, water tables are fast receding in most areas, affecting borehole levels and yields; increased demand on boreholes is causing more frequent breakdowns. People and livestock are walking long distances to access water, and reliance on sand-scooped dry riverbed water sources is increasing across most areas, posing a health risk. The drought and persistent water shortages have severely impacted crop production, pasture and livestock body conditions, and income-generating activities, and these impacts are still being acutely felt across the country. In addition, significantly below-normal water levels in Lake Kariba have resulted in low hydroelectric power generation, causing prolonged power cuts across many areas, negatively impacting some livelihoods and economic activities. 

Economy

Poor macroeconomic and market conditions continue to drive acute food insecurity concerns in Zimbabwe, limiting income-generating activities and reducing household purchasing power. In early April when the new local currency (ZWG) was introduced, the official foreign currency exchange rate was generally stable (just below 14 ZWG to 1 USD). However, parallel exchange rate increases of more than double the official rates were recorded from August to September, driving significant ZWG price increases on the market. On September 26, the government devalued the local currency by nearly 43 percent, a development that drove further ZWG price increases on formal and informal markets. On the parallel market, the ZWG has devalued by up to 65 percent compared to April. Prices in USD have also been rising over the last few months, owing to reported shortages of foreign currency in formal markets affecting manufacturers and importers of goods, some of whom resorted to the parallel market. High and above-normal food, fuel, and transportation costs are of particular concern.

Crop production: 

The near-record El Niño-induced drought severely impacted Zimbabwe's 2023/24 crop production. Of the 2023/24 maize planted area, 53 percent was a complete write-off, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. At just 635,000 MT, national maize production was 60 percent below the 10-year average. With a small/traditional grain harvest of 109,000 MT, the total cereal production of 744,000 MT was 70 percent lower than in 2023. In April 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture estimated that 70 percent of Zimbabwe’s 60 rural districts had only 0 to 3 months of cereal self-sufficiency for the 2024/25 consumption year. The 2024/25 annual national cereal deficit was estimated at over 1 million MT, with the private sector and government importing grain to bridge the gap. Own-produced 2023/24 staple cereals have been long-depleted for most households across all rural districts in the country. Besides staple cereals, most non-cereal food crop production (groundnuts, round nuts, sugar beans, sweet potatoes, and cowpeas) was around 70 to 80 percent lower than in 2023. This means that the majority of households across the country are without own-produced stocks. In addition, seasonal income from food crop sales has been severely impacted, with a very high proportion of households who typically sell food crops not being able to do so this year. To compound the loss in food crops, the 2023/34 cash crop production was also significantly below normal, negatively impacting household income. Tobacco production (235 million kg) was 20 percent lower than in 2023. Just 13,000 MT of cotton were reportedly harvested, 14 percent of the 90,000 MT harvested last year. Other cash crops like sunflower also suffered significant losses. 

Livestock production: 

Water, pasture, and livestock body conditions are poor and further deteriorating across the country, particularly in typically low-rainfall areas in the south, east, west, and extreme northern parts of the country. In some critical areas, the ground is already bare, with hardly any grasses. In April 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture estimated 0 to 3 months of available drinking water and pasture for livestock across most parts of Matabeleland North and South Provinces, parts of Midlands, Masvingo, and Manicaland Provinces, and the extreme north. This is driving poor livestock (mostly cattle) body conditions across these areas. Livestock deaths are occurring across some of these areas, with 3,500 cattle deaths reported in Matabeleland South Province between April and September 2024. Homemade feeds are in short supply, while commercial feeds are too expensive for most farmers. Livestock mitigation efforts by the government, some NGOs, and private companies include hay, fodder, and silage production and supply in the most critical areas, but community and household coverage remains generally low. The national Livestock Drought Action Committee set up by the Ministry of Agriculture in April has since reportedly saved up to 50,000 cattle in Agroecological Regions 4 and 5 of the Matabeleland North and South, Midlands, and Manicaland Provinces through targeted feed and water interventions. In early October, the government enacted a directive to compel wheat farmers to convert wheat stover into livestock feeds to help increase the supply of stock feeds, which are in short supply following poor rainfall last season. One challenge with this is that most wheat farms are in northern and central areas, entailing high transportation costs to ferry the stocks where they are most needed. Livestock diseases also remain a hazard across most areas, with up to 90 cattle deaths reportedly recorded every day in Matebeleland South Province due to January disease (Theileriosis). The Department of Veterinary Services (DVS) has indicated that tick-borne diseases accounted for more than 60 percent of annual livestock mortalities in recent years, with the January disease accounting for more than 75 percent of these mortalities. Low incomes and high prices are constraining most farmers’ access to veterinary drugs and care. 

Poor cattle conditions and high rates of livestock deaths continue to drive distress sales of cattle. As a result, prevailing cattle prices are significantly lower than normal in most areas, depriving selling households of potential income. Despite the government ban at the end of June on household-level cattle sales in favor of centralized ward-based sales, reports indicate that household-based sales are largely continuing. However, small livestock like goats are in fair to good conditions across most areas, and prices are relatively stable, though in some areas they are trending towards below-normal levels due to above-normal supply and constrained liquidity.

Off-own-farm sources of income: 

Most typical income sources are below normal across most areas. Seasonal agricultural and non-agricultural labor opportunities and self-employment opportunities are also below normal, influenced partly by poor 2024 harvests, ongoing liquidity challenges, and the lack of food stocks for in-kind labor payments. Income from vegetable production and sales is low to non-existent in most communities due to ongoing water challenges. Petty trade is increasing as a coping strategy, but as it increases, so does competition, resulting in below-average income. Domestic remittances are also below normal due to prevailing macroeconomic challenges. For southern districts, remittances from South Africa are generally below typical levels due to economic difficulties and residence status challenges experienced by some emigrants. Artisanal mining activities continue to increase across the country, providing income (though irregular and unpredictable) to members of households engaging in the activity. Although the government banned river bed alluvial mining in August of this year on environmental and health grounds, the activity reportedly continues in many parts of the country. Sales of wild products (fruits, thatch grass, etc.) are lower than typical following the El Niño-induced drought. The last two typical harvest periods for Mopane worms (amacimbi/madora) (December/January and April/May) in the southern and western districts were a total loss, given non-availability of the worms.

In addition, water challenges are also affecting some urban areas. For example, Bulawayo, the second largest city in the country, had a total supply dam storage capacity of usable water of just 28 percent at the beginning of October 2024, which was about 20 percent lower than the same time last year. Of the six usual supply dams, two have been decommissioned (Umzingwane in November 2023 and Upper Ncema on October 3, 2024), with decommissioning of another (Lower Ncema) imminent. The Bulawayo City Council has increased the water-shedding schedule from 120 hours to 132 hours per week in the city, negatively affecting economic activity and income-generating opportunities.  

Market supplies: 

Staple cereal grains are largely unavailable on the market, even in typical surplus-producing areas. Where available, stocks are significantly lower than normal and prices up to double the typical prices during this time of year. A survey conducted by the Ministry of Industry and Commerce between September 27 and October 4 following the devaluation of the ZWG indicated significant price increases, with prices in formal retail shops higher than in open markets. On the open market, staple cereals are sold exclusively in foreign currency (USD or ZAR). Maize grain prices are trending between 10 and 12 USD per 17.5 kg bucket in most areas. A few southern area markets have access to maize grain from South Africa, mostly informally imported. This grain is usually available at lower prices (6–7 USD per bucket). 

However, maize meal is readily available across most parts of the country, except in some remote rural areas. Prices of maize meal are also above normal in local currency and in USD and ZAR. The government has also reportedly set up agro-shops and hammer mills at selected Grain Marketing Board (GMB) depots, which sell basic commodities at cheaper prices compared to retail shops to cushion poor households from high prices on the market. Although other basic food commodities are generally available on both formal and informal markets, albeit at above-normal prices, shortages of some basic commodities have been reported in some shops as some wholesalers and formal retailers channel commodities onto the open market where they are sold exclusively in USD. Follow this link for more information on the regional supply and market outlook. 

Household purchasing capacity: 

Given significantly below-average income from typical food and cash crop sales, access to markets for most households is constrained, and household purchasing capacity is severely limited. Prices on the informal markets are mainly in USD or ZAR. Those who earn in local currency need to convert their earnings to foreign currency at high rates to buy on open markets. Prices in local currency are almost limited to formal retail sectors like supermarkets, yet the ZWG prices are pegged using significantly higher parallel market exchange rates compared to prevailing official rates (around 29 ZWG to 1 USD). 

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable.

Seasonal humanitarian assistance delivered by the government is ongoing across rural districts. Available information indicates that the government is distributing rations of 8.5 kg of maize grain per person per month (distributed as a three-month once-off ration of 27.5 kg per person) in rural areas. In urban areas, the government has been registering beneficiaries for the urban cash-for-cereal program, through which the cash equivalent of a 10 kg bag of maize meal will be distributed to vulnerable households. Information about WFP and other humanitarian partner agencies’ plans is not yet available. Seasonal humanitarian assistance delivered by the government is ongoing across rural districts. Available information indicates that the government is distributing rations of 8.5 kg of maize grain per person per month (distributed as a three-month once-off ration of 27.5 kg per person) in rural areas. In urban areas, the government has been registering beneficiaries for the urban cash-for-cereal program, through which the cash equivalent of a 10 kg bag of maize meal will be distributed to vulnerable households. Information about WFP and other humanitarian partner agencies’ plans is not yet available. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

Rural areas (including both deficit- and surplus-producing areas):

In a typical year, surplus-producing areas would exceed deficit-producing areas in crop production and income-generating opportunities and would see relatively better acute food security outcomes. However, this year, some of the worst rainfall deficits occurred in typical surplus-producing areas, eliminating the structural advantages of these areas. The 2024 crop harvests failed across most of the country, and for those households that managed some production, own-produced stocks lasted less than three months after the harvests in April. Whereas seasonal income from food crop sales can typically stretch until the next harvest in some surplus-producing areas (especially the more productive resettlement areas), income from this source was largely unavailable this year. As noted above, other typical sources of income are significantly below normal. Poor liquidity and low levels of disposable income among middle and better-off households have impacted on-farm and off-farm labor opportunities for poor households, as well as self-employment opportunities. As a result, although households are mainly reliant on markets, below-average income and above-average food prices are constraining access to markets for most poor households. Household food diversity and consumption are poor for most households, with many poor households consuming just one meal per day, eating less preferred foods, and restricting food consumption for adults so that small children can eat, and engaging in Crisis livelihood coping strategies. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread across all rural areas.

Urban areas:

The severity of this year’s drought has significantly impacted urban areas, even though these areas are not as closely tied to agricultural outcomes. All urban areas are currently experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Many urban and peri-urban households have access to small plots of land, where they typically produce some food crops. However, due to the drought, own-produced food stocks are not available this year, and neither are food crop remittances sent from rural relatives to urban areas. Incomes for most poor households are below normal, constraining access to markets amid above-average, increasing prices. Petty trade/vending and other self-employment activities are prevalent, but incomes earned from these activities are limited by high competition and low demand. The high costs of housing rentals (exclusively in USD/ZAR), transportation, and other utility costs are putting additional pressure on food access for poor households. Most poor households are relying on informal markets to meet their food needs, where goods, though cheaper than in formal retail shops, are sold exclusively in foreign currency (USD/ZAR). This disadvantages households earning in local currency, who must convert their ZWG earnings at premium rates to be able to buy using USD/ZAR, reducing their potential purchasing power. Some poor households cope by buying small quantities of repackaged food commodities for one or a few meals at a time, borrowing money to buy food with limited ability to pay the loans back, or resorting to selling productive assets. Despite the use of these coping strategies, food consumption remains inadequate among poor households, and food consumption gaps are likely for a high proportion of households as they skip meals and reduce portion sizes. 

According to the 2024 rural Zimbabwe Livelihoods Assessment Committee (ZIMLAC) report, national global acute malnutrition (GAM) prevalence in June 2024 was 4.9 percent, which is slightly below the World Health Organization’s “Acceptable” threshold of 5 percent. With a significantly early onset of the annual lean season and extended market reliance amid above-average prices, it is likely that acute malnutrition has deteriorated to Alert levels (GAM 5–9.9 percent) nationwide by October.  

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

• Above-average temperatures are most likely through March 2025, although cumulative rainfall and crop development throughout the October 2024 to March 2025 rainy season are likely to be normal. 
• Although most households are likely to use a variety of means to procure agricultural inputs and increase cropped area compared to last season, poor households will face limited input access due to above-average prices and below-average incomes. Poor livestock body conditions (especially in typical low-rainfall areas) will likely constrain land preparation/plowing activities that require draft power and reduce cropped areas for some. The potential use of low-quality seed and limited access to fertilizer is likely to reduce yields for a portion of poor households, but overall harvests are likely to be near normal.
• Until the start of the rainy season, water availability and pasture conditions are expected to be well below normal across much of the country, driving poor livestock body conditions, with typically low-rainfall areas worst affected. Livestock deaths and distress sales (particularly of cattle) are expected to be higher than normal until after the start of the rainy season. There is an increased risk of livestock diseases during the 2024/25 rainy season as poor households have limited access to livestock drugs and other veterinary services. A gradual improvement in pasture conditions and livestock body conditions is expected in late 2024 and early 2025.
• Livestock prices (particularly cattle) are expected to be lower than last year’s levels and the five-year average due to poor livestock body conditions, high market supply due to distress sales (especially in southern areas), and low demand due to low liquidity among potential buyers. Gradual price improvements are expected as livestock body conditions improve with the projected favorable rainy season. 
• In both deficit- and surplus-producing areas, own-produced cereal and other food stocks will not be available until the next main harvest begins in April 2025. 
• The 2024/25 national cereal deficit is expected to remain higher than the five-year average, with the government maintaining duty-free imports of maize and rice to meet national needs and both the government and private sector expected to continue importing maize grain throughout the outlook period. Maize and traditional grain supplies will likely remain significantly below normal or unavailable in most markets, while maize meal supply is expected to be stable. Informal imports — mainly in southern Zimbabwe — will likely continue to supply cheaper-priced maize meal brands.
• National cereal (grain and maize meal) prices as well as fuel and transportation costs (in ZWG and USD) will likely remain higher than last year’s and the five-year average throughout the outlook period. 
• Casual labor demand will likely be near normal; however, due to well above-average labor supply, poor liquidity, and the lack of food crops typically used for in-kind payments, wage rates will likely be below normal.
• Engagement in informal artisanal mining and petty trade will increase atypically, while income from petty trading will be constrained by high competition and limited demand. Household income from livestock sales is expected to remain below normal, despite anticipated improvements in body conditions by early 2025. 

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• Seasonal humanitarian assistance by the government, WFP, and humanitarian partners is expected between October 2024 to March 2025 across all 60 rural districts. Available information indicates that the government will be distributing rations of 8.5 kg of maize grain per person per month from October to March, and this will be distributed as a three-month ration of 27.5 kg per person. In urban areas, the government has plans to distribute the cash equivalent to a 10 kg bag of maize meal per person to vulnerable households through the urban cash-for-cereal program. However, detailed plans for WFP and other humanitarian partner agencies’ distributions are not yet available.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

Rural areas (including both deficit- and surplus-producing areas): 

Access to markets will continue to be constrained for poor and other households due to significantly below-normal income and above-normal food prices on the markets. Between October 2024 and January 2025, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected, as typical on-farm labor opportunities such as land preparation, planting, and weeding are expected to be below normal partly due to low levels of disposable income and no food stocks for in-kind payments by middle and better-off households. Though improvements in water and pasture conditions are expected in line with the forecast for an average rainfall season with a timely onset, income from livestock sales is expected to remain below normal as some livestock, especially cattle, will not have fully recovered following the extended drought since late 2023. In addition, some households have lost some or most of their stock due to livestock deaths or distress sales, limiting the number of animals available for sale. Livestock prices are also expected to remain subdued during this period due to constrained demand. Some households will remain dependent on income from off-own farm sources such as casual labor, petty trade, self-employment, crafts, and remittances, which are expected to be at below-normal levels, and artisanal mining. Market purchases will be limited by above-average food prices. The forecasted normal start of the 2024/25 rainfall season is expected to be favorable for wild fruits, vegetables, and other products for consumption and sale. However, these are not expected to offset food consumption gaps. Due to constrained purchasing capacity, many households are expected to continue to engage in consumption-based coping strategies such as eating less-preferred food, skipping meals, and prioritizing food for children during this period, which is also characterized by high demands for the new school year, as well as livelihoods coping strategies, such as selling productive assets and atypically increasing temporary labor migration. 

At the peak of lean season from February to March, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist, despite anticipated green harvests providing marginal relief from January onwards. However, as households are expected to prioritize planting for the season, given the positive rainfall forecast, near-average harvests are expected for all deficit- and surplus-producing areas, which will significantly improve outcomes with the main harvest. Between April and May, once these harvests become available, the improved access to own-produced food stocks will drive the transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and even Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, especially in surplus-producing areas. However, the overall classification for February to May will be Crisis (IPC Phase 3), influenced by peak lean season (February to March) outcomes. 

Urban areas:

Similar to rural areas, no meaningful improvements in food security outcomes are expected in urban areas throughout the lean season as poor households’ purchasing power will likely remain constrained throughout the outlook period as a result of below-normal household incomes, below-normal in-kind remittances from rural families and friends, below-normal own-produced food stocks, and above-normal prices of goods and services in both the local currency and USD/ZAR. Poor households are likely to continue to engage in coping strategies (e.g., skipping meals, reducing portion sizes, eating less preferred foods, borrowing to buy food, or purchasing by credit, labor migration, selling of productive assets,) indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, as near normal 2024/25 harvests are anticipated beginning in April, this is expected to avail own-produced urban and peri-urban food stocks for mainly poor households, food crop remittances, and income from crop sales from rural areas for some urban households. Prices for staple and other foods are expected to seasonally reduce. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated for April/May, though overall area classification for February to May remains Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

As the lean season progresses and household access to food continues to deteriorate, nutrition outcomes are expected to deteriorate, although likely remaining within Alert levels (GAM 5–9.9 percent) through May 2025. The rainy season is often associated with an increase in diarrheal diseases in children, which may also contribute to increased GAM rates during the outlook period.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National: 

Below-normal rainfall or prolonged dry spells.

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: This would likely lead to below-normal yields for both green and main harvests across the country. Seasonal on-farm casual labor opportunities such as land preparation, planting, weeding, fertilizer, and chemical application would likely decrease or become unavailable, as would water-dependent livelihoods such as brickmaking, construction, and horticulture. This would negatively impact poor households’ income. Poor water and pasture conditions would likely worsen livestock body conditions, driving spikes in poverty deaths and distress sales at significantly below-normal prices. As a result, there would likely be an increase in the proportion of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, particularly in rural areas, although area-level outcomes would likely remain Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Significant decline in macroeconomic conditions. 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Shortages of foreign currency in the formal banking system would force some businesses to increasingly resort to parallel markets, further increasing parallel market exchange rates.  Increased foreign currency exchange rates and the continued devaluation of the local currency would likely drive significant increases in the prices of goods and services in both ZWG and USD. Shortages of basic goods would also be increasingly likely as some wholesalers and formal retailers divert commodities to informal markets selling exclusively in USD/ZAR. All these developments would likely further constrain access to markets for poor households, increasing food gaps and increasing the proportion of households experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in both urban and rural areas.