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Reduced incomes and high food prices are expected to increase food insecurity among poor households in south-western districts

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Zimbabwe
  • July - December 2013
Reduced incomes and high food prices are expected to increase food insecurity among poor households in south-western districts

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  • Key Messages
  • National Overview
  • Areas of Concern
  • Additional Areas of Concern
  • Events that might change the Outlook
  • Key Messages
    • The majority of rural households across the country are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes. However, in localized areas of Masvingo, Matebeleland South, Matebeleland North, and Midlands provinces very poor households are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to poor production and high staple food prices. From July to September, very poor households in parts of Matebeleland South, Midlands, Masvingo, Manicaland and Mashonaland Central    will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

    • Based on estimates from the second round crop production and livestock assessment for the 2012/13 season, the current national cereal deficit is estimated at 695,552 MT after considering opening stocks (320,000 MT) and imports to date (150,000 MT). This year’s deficit is 37 percent higher than last year’s shortfall and accounts for 34 percent of the national requirement. This shortfall is expected to be filled through imports. 

    • Maize grain, maize flour, beans, and oil are generally available on the market and accessible for most households across the country. Food prices in the south-western districts are 2-10 percent higher than the national average. These slightly higher prices are likely to decrease purchasing power among households that are depending on markets for most of their food purchases. 

    • According to the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee’s (VAC) food security assessment, 1.5 million people are estimated to be in need of assistance between October and December, and this figure is expected to rise to 2.2 million between January and March 2014. Based on these findings, humanitarian assistance through the Seasonal Targeted Assistance (STA) program is planned to start as early as September/October in most areas, while likely ending in March. In the presence of STA, FEWS NET projects that most households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes between October 2013 and March 2014, with the exception of some localized areas that will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in Tsholotsho, Bulilima, Mberengwa, and Chivi districts. 


    National Overview
    2012-13 Production Estimates

    Based on the second round crop production and livestock assessment, the total cereal production for 2012/2013 is estimated to be 909,965 MT, which is approximately 15 percent lower than 2011/12, a below-average year. Projected domestic maize production is around 798,596 MT, 18 percent below last year’s levels.

    With annual domestic cereal requirements for both humans and livestock estimated at 1.78 million MT, the country is likely to face a cereal deficit of about 870,000 MT this consumption year. After considering opening stocks (320,000 MT) and imports to date (150,000 MT), the current national cereal deficit is estimated at 695,552 MT. Imports are expected to fill most of the cereal production gap.

    This low cereal production is attributed to several factors, including the late onset of the rainy season, poor rainfall distribution, dry spells experienced from February through March, limited access to fertilizers, as well as the armyworm outbreak, and flooding experienced in most parts of the country during the first half of January.

    In comparison to last year’s levels, cotton production is also estimated to have decreased by about 62 percent as a result of reduced land cultivated for cotton due to low pricing and high production costs. However, tobacco production is estimated to increase this season by about 20 percent due to an increase in the number of farmers who have been attracted by the high pricing of the crop. Tobacco production for 2012/13 is estimated to surpass USD $100 million in value and with high prices, the value of this year’s crop is being compared to the record sales obtained prior to 2000.

    Cattle census figures estimate that the national cattle holdings have increased by only two percent when compared to last year. This sluggish growth is attributed to the excess livestock mortality experienced in Masvingo and Matebeleland South Provinces due to poor grazing conditions and limited access to water in 2012. Herd sizes in these two areas have declined by about one and four percent, respectively.

    Current Situation
    • Most rural households in the northern districts are experiencing Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) and are able to meet their basic food requirements. The main source of cereal for most households in these areas is own production from the ongoing harvest. Markets in these northern areas are also fully stocked with maize, and prices of maize grain are averaging USD $0.43 per kg which is near the national average of $0.42 per kg.
    • The tobacco selling season has closed with the total sale of 156.2 million kilograms through auctions at an average price of USD $3.70 per kilogram, giving a total value of $577.3 million for this marketing season. The volume of tobacco sold this season is about 20 percent higher than the amount sold during the 2011/12 season. This income is expected to support household food requirements and other basic needs, particularly in the northern-central parts of the country where tobacco is grown.
    •  The southern half of the country has been severely affected by drought this season. At the start of the season the rains arrived late, this was followed by extended dry spells from the third week of January through March. These drought conditions resulted in both maize and small grain (millet and sorghum) crops wilting beyond recovery. Recent FEWS NET field assessments in Matebeleland South and Masvingo provinces confirmed that most households in these areas experienced reduced harvests; producing only enough to cover two to three months of consumption, as compared to normally producing enough to cover four to six months of consumption.
    • Poor households that rely on rain-fed farming in the southern region have also been impacted by reduced labor demand for harvesting due to poor agriculture performance this season.  In recent years, poor rainfall in this region has pushed farmers to engage more in livestock production and this has also contributed to decreasing agricultural labor demand in some areas.
    • Market supply of staple food is stable with national average prices of maize grain averaging USD $0.42 per kg and maize meal $0.61 per kg. These prices are 34 and 13 percent higher than during the same period last year.
    • Across all wealth groups, most households in the southern districts that experienced a poor harvest are relying more on market purchases for their cereal requirements. Most local shops in these southern districts have sufficient supplies of maize meal but prices remain higher than normal, especially in most areas in Matebeleland South. For example, in Gwanda district maize meal is selling at prices that are 6-39 percent higher than the national average and 8-13 percent higher than maize meal prices during this same time last year. Similarly, high staple prices were observed in Matebeleland North and South where maize meal is currently selling at prices that are 6-15 percent above the national average.
    • Most of the maize meal sold in the southern districts is imported from Botswana and South Africa through informal trading. In addition to this, small amounts of locally processed maize meal are also available from nearby towns like Gwanda, Plumtree, and Beitbridge, where millers are using maize grain purchased from markets in surplus areas. For Matebeleland North and Midlands provinces, recent FEWS NET assessments show that staple prices in most of the districts are ranging between USD$ 0.39 to $ 0.44 per kg.
    • Livestock body conditions in areas including Matebeleland South and Masvingo province vary from fair to good.  Based on a recent FEWS NET assessment, there is an increase in small livestock sales amongst poor households as more households seek cash for cereal purchases in local markets.
    • Overall most households in the areas of concern in the southern region of the country are currently experiencing Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1). However some very poor rural households in localized areas in Western Kalahari Sandveld Communal, Beitbridge South Western Communal Livelihood, Masvingo Manicaland Middleveld Smallholder, and Mwenezi Chivi South Midlands Communal livelihood zones are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
    Assumptions

    For the Food Security Outlook for July 2013 to March 2014, FEWS NET completed Household Economy Approach (HEA) outcome analysis in portions of 19 livelihood zones and identified several southern districts within these livelihood zones as areas of concern. The analysis for the July-December 2013 period is informed by the following national and sub-national level assumptions:

    • Cereal production: Based on the second round crop production and livestock assessment, the total cereal production for 2012/2013 is estimated to be 909,965 MT, which is approximately 15 percent lower than 2011/12, a below-average year. Projected domestic maize production is around 798,596 MT, 18 percent below last year’s levels. This reduced production is expected in the northern cereal surplus areas as well as southern deficit districts. Overall, households in the typically surplus areas in the north are still likely to meet their cereal consumption requirements through own production, while rural households in parts of the south parts are likely to start depending on market purchases as early as July once they run out of food from their own production.
    • Maize meal and grain: National availability will remain relatively stable throughout the outlook period with month on month fluctuations expected, particularly in the deficit areas in the south-western parts of the country. Cereal availability will depend on domestic production, imports by private traders mainly from South Africa, and Grain Marketing Board (GMB) deliveries during the outlook period. Emergency food assistance through STA is likely to further improve availability from October to December. In the past few years Zambia has been a major source market for cereals, but because of Zambia’s trade export ban supplies to structurally maize deficit areas will likely be impacted.  
    • Staple food prices:  Between July and September household reliance on market purchases for maize meal and grain will increase as poor and very poor households finish their stocks earlier than normal. This increased demand will likely exert more pressure on already high prices. Prices are expected to increase at the start of the typical lean season in October, as surplus grain is moved to deficit areas.  However, the start of the STA and other non food humanitarian activities are expected to stabilize these price increases. Based on the FEWS NET’ integrated approach analysis, which looks at seasonal trends, fuel prices, maize meal supply, demand, and inflation levels, average maize prices during the July to September period are expected to remain four percent higher than last year’s averages and could increase between four to six percent in the October to December period.
    •  Seasonal progress: The Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum is likely to issue the seasonal forecast in August. Based on climatology chances for a normal start of the rain season around November in the northern parts of the country are high, along with a slightly delayed start in southern areas in December. Based on this expected start of season, normal labor availability levels are projected for this time of the year.
    • Labor availability and rates: There is a reduction in labor demand for the current season’s harvest. This is usually a period when most very poor and poor households earn income through labor in order to make market purchases. Based on the recent FEWS NET field assessments post harvest activities typical of the July to September period, including cotton picking and threshing of food crops are expected to be limited given the reduction in land area cultivated for cotton as well as poor production. The demand for labor in land preparation, planting and weeding activities from October to December is expected to remain at normal levels. Labor rates for these activities are expected to remain the same as in the previous season, and will be 10 to 15 percent higher rates than normal (based on 2009/10 reference year rates).
    • Livestock: The previous two main cropping seasons have been particularly poor, which has resulted in households selling their livestock in order to get the income necessary to make market purchases. This has resulted in animal herd sizes not increasing within very poor and poor households; resulting in a declining trend in ownership of livestock among the poor, particularly goats. Although current prices are higher than the 2009/10 reference year prices (based on the recent FEWS NET assessment in Matebeleland North and Midlands), the limited capacity of households to dispose their livestock at sustainable levels will have an impact on the sustainability of their livelihoods. Cattle conditions are expected to deteriorate between July and September in the south-western parts of the country due to poor pasture and water availability, which will likely result in lower prices that will improve with start of rains between October and December.
    • Humanitarian assistance: Based on the Zimbabwe VAC results, an estimated 1.5 million people will be in need of food assistance over the next six months. This figure is expected to increase to 2.2 million from January through March. The food needs of this population is expected to be met through the World Food Program’s (WFP) STA program earmarked to start in September and October. The program is expected to run through March 2014. Most of the ongoing safety-net programs are targeted at very poor labor constrained households and people living with HIV as well as children enrolled in nutrition support programs. The Food and Agriculture Organization’s agriculture support and other interventions by NGOs and the government will likely provide cash or in-kind distributions between October and December. It is expected that these schemes will provide enough resources to cover the food and non-food gaps identified for vulnerable households across the country.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    The majority of very poor households in Matebeleland South, Masvingo, Matebeleland North provinces, northern and southern parts of Manicaland, and southern parts of Midlands province will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes between July and September as households finish their own production and begin to rely heavily on local markets for food that is being sold at prices that are higher than average. Parts of districts, including Bulilima, Mberengwa Chivi, Mwenezi, Chivi, Zaka, Chiredzi, Nkayi, Tsholotsho, Chirumanzu, Shurugwi, Bikita, Masvingo, Chimanimani, Buhera, Matobo and Zaka will likely face Crisis ( IPC Phase 3) outcomes in the absence of food assistance.  

    Most areas in the northern and central parts of the country will likely maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes, throughout the outlook period due to impact of increased income from tobacco sales and relatively better production.  However, parts of the Northern Zambezi Valley Communal and Greater Mudzi will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes between July and September will need closer monitoring as the conditions are likely to deteriorate in the absence of humanitarian assistance.

    At the national level food security is expected to improve during the October to December outlook period due to the start of the next cropping season and related labor opportunities, along with the start of STA and other safety-net programming in deficit areas. Cereal prices in the deficit areas will likely remain above the national average of $0.42 per kg and increasing between approximately five and eight percent during the October to December period. Incomes for cereal market purchases are likely to be affected by limited casual labor opportunities, likely reduction in livestock prices due to stress sales, deterioration of livestock conditions due to likely poor pasture, and water sources between October and November. From January through March humanitarian assistance through the STA program is expected to be the major source of cereals for most households in the cereal deficit areas, especially the south-western areas.  The start of the green harvest is expected to further improve food availability in most areas which are likely to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes.


    Areas of Concern

    The following scenarios are based on Household Economy Approach (HEA) outcome analysis which has incorporated the assumptions described above in comparison to baseline information collected between April 2009 and March 2010. While analysis was conducted for portions of 19 livelihood zones across central and southern parts of the country, this report focuses primarily on southern districts in two livelihood zones that were the worst affected by poor seasonal performance: Western Kalahari Sandveld Communal (WKSC) and  Cereal and High Cotton Producing Communal (CHCC). Additional analysis was also done on some secondary areas of concern (Figure 4).

    Western Kalahari Sandveld Communal (WKSC) (Covering Tsholotsho, western parts of Hwange and northern parts of Bulilima districts in Matebeleland North and Matebeleland South Province)

    Current Situation

    Currently, very poor households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in most areas covered by WKSC Livelihood Zone. Following poor rainfall performance, the cereal production levels in the districts covered by this zone were approximately 74-91 percent below normal (compared to the reference year of 2008/09). Normal production levels usually cover four to six months of household food consumption, but given this season’s production shortfalls only two months of household food consumption is expected post harvest. For the remainder of the consumption year households will have to rely heavily on local markets for their cereal purchases. Maize meal is the most commonly purchased cereal and current prices remain high. Maize meal prices are ranging from $0.65 to $0.70/kg which is higher than the national average of $0.61 per kg while maize grain is selling at an average of $0.57 per kg. These current prices are 7 and 43 percent higher than national averages for maize meal and grain, respectively. Most of the maize meal sold in this area is locally processed maize meal that is being transported from the nearby town of Bulawayo, Plumtree, Hwange, and Victoria Falls. A large portion of the maize meal is also being imported from South Africa by private traders.

    Very Poor households in WKSC have limited casual labor opportunities due to poor production this season, which has resulted in lower labor construction opportunities being offered by better-off households.  As is typical during this time of the season, households also rely on the sale of mopane worms for additional income, particularly in Bulilima district.

     Livestock conditions are currently fair but pasture availability and conditions are deteriorating quickly due to the long dry spell experienced from February through March. Water sources are still available but are expected to start drying up by end of July because of the limited rains received during the 2012/13 production year. Goats are the major livestock income source for very poor households and are currently being sold for about USD$35 which is 40 percent higher than normal. However, due to consecutive poor seasons and the reduced amount of goats kept by households, the ability of very poor households to sell enough goats to cover gaps at sustainable levels has been reduced. Although households indicated that remittances from mainly South Africa will increase their purchasing power, the exchange rate of the Rand to the USD is currently depreciating, but this could stabilize during the outlook period.  

    Assumptions

    In line with the national level assumptions described earlier, the following assumptions have been made about the WKSC Livelihood Zone:

    • Both formal and informal maize meal imports from South Africa and Botswana are expected to provide stability in market supplies. The flow of maize meal and maize grain from surplus districts to deficit areas will likely decline between July and December. As a result, during this period cereal prices are expected to remain higher than average and to continue to increase. Based on FEWS NET’s price projections, maize meal prices are expected to rise between five and eight percent between July and December.
    • Casual labor income from construction work between July and October is expected to be reduced by 33 percent between July and September. However, cultivation and other agriculture labor opportunities are expected to remain at normal levels during the October to December period.
    • Self employment income from the sale of natural resources (including grass, crafts, and firewood), petty trade, and brewing is expected to decline by 33 percent during the outlook period.
    • Livestock income is expected to increase between July and December, following a 40 percent increase in livestock prices when compared to the baseline. However the number of goats that very poor households can sell sustainably cannot be greater than three since over the past several years very poor households have not increased their herds due to the recurrence of drought.
    • Vegetable production between July and September is expected to be typical for this time of the year. Additionally, income from production is expected to be at the same levels as the reference year because prices have not changed.
    • Humanitarian assistance in the form of food and livelihood support is expected to start in October 2013 and will conclude in March 2014.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Based on the current food security situation and the above assumptions, between July and September very poor households will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes, in the absence of humanitarian assistance, due to reduced access to income and higher than average staple food prices expected during this outlook period. Since humanitarian assistance is not expected between July and September, households are likely to engage in typical coping strategies in order to earn income, which includes the overselling of their livestock and the distress migration of younger household members to South Africa.

    The income from the sale of goats, construction labor, and self employment will be important in covering some of the food and non-food needs of households, but will not be sufficient to cover all of the household needs. HEA outcome analysis shows that the very poor households are likely to face an 11 percent food deficit between July 2013 and March 2014, since current income levels are not adequate to cover livelihood associated costs, including school fees, medical costs, and other basic household needs.

    The very poor households in WKSC are likely to receive humanitarian assistance during the October to December period, mostly in the form of food and cash assistance, along with livelihood support through agriculture input assistance. The presence and implementation of these humanitarian interventions by government and non-government organizations will likely improve food insecurity outcomes, so very poor households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes between October and December.

    Within WKSC, the continuation of humanitarian assistance programming between January and March 2014 will likely maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes among very poor households in some areas, but due to expected rises in cereal prices due to low supplies and high demand, some households in WKSC will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) even in the presence of humanitarian assistance.  

    Cereal and High Cotton Producing Communal (CHCC) (covering communal areas in the districts of Gokwe North, Gokwe South in Midlands and Sanyati Mashonaland West province)

    Current Situation

    Households in this zone are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes. Households are able to cover their food needs from own production supplemented by non-staple purchases. Cereal production in this zone was also impacted by poor rainfall performance this season, resulting in production levels that are 30 percent below normal (2008/9 reference year). CHCC is commonly known for its high cotton production, however following poor pricing last year most households have drastically reduced the amount of land cultivated for this cash crop. This season cotton production is estimated to be 35 percent below normal levels. Although current cotton price levels are higher than the baseline year, reduced production will still have a negative impact on the amount of income earned by very poor households through cotton sales.

    Maize grain is the most commonly purchased staple in CHCC and is generally available in markets because it is supplied from neighboring surplus zones, including Lusulu Lupane Southern Gokwe mixed Agriculture (LLSG). Grain prices in June are 38 percent lower than the national average, however these prices are 13 percent higher than this same time last year.  The price of maize meal currently ranges from USD$0.60 to $0.65/kg compared to an average of $0.57/kg during this same time last year.

    Purchases made by very poor households are through income obtained by goat sales, vegetable production, and self employment activities. This season’s poor cereal and cotton production also affected better-off households in this zone. Subsequently, current post harvest activities, including threshing, cotton picking, and stalk cutting, are limited. Even though labor rates are 15 percent higher than normal (2008/9 reference year), the amount of work available is reduced, so income from these activities is lower than normal.

    Assumptions
    • Maize grain supplies are expected to be stable between July and September, as supplies flow from neighboring surplus livelihood zones, including LLSG and HPCR. However, as the lean season begins between October and December, maize grain supply will likely be limited.
    • Based on FEWS NET’s price projections, staple food prices are expected to follow seasonal trends between July and December and rise by approximately 10 percent.
    • Vegetable production between July and September is expected to be typical for this time of the year. Additionally, income from production is expected to be at the same levels as the reference year because prices have not changed.
    • Although current cotton price levels are 40 percent higher than the baseline year, reduced production will still have a negative impact on the amount of income earned by very poor households through cotton sales.
    • Livestock income is expected to increase between July and December, following a 25 and 75 percent increase in goat and cattle prices when compared to the baseline, respectively. However the number of goats that very poor households can sell sustainably cannot be greater than two since over the past several years very poor households have not increased their herds due to recurrence of drought.
    • Casual labor income from construction work typically between July to October is expected to remain stable and higher wage rates are expected to lead to increased income earnings. Cultivation and other agriculture labor opportunities are expected to remain at normal levels during the October to December period.
    • Humanitarian assistance in the form of food and livelihood support is expected to start in October 2013 and will conclude in March 2014.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    From July - September most parts of the zone will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), in the absence of assistance. Most very poor households will rely mainly on market purchases for cereal, however access to food through these purchases will be limited due the loss of income from cotton sales. In addition to this, household purchasing power will decrease due to higher than normal staple prices and expected increases during the July-September period. Very poor households are likely to get some income for cereal purchases through increased causal labor activities including brick molding, hut thatching, and self employment activities.  Limited post-harvest activities will force very poor households to seek more off-farm labor from July to September. Some of these off-farm activities will include firewood and craft sales, beer brewing, and petty trading. Gardening activities are also likely to provide both food and incomes for cereal purchases. Given the low ownership of goats by the very poor, income from livestock sales is going to be limited as they will not be able to sell more than two stocks without affecting herd viability.

    The very poor households are likely to receive humanitarian support during the October to December period, mostly in the form of food and cash assistance, along with livelihood support through input assistance. The presence and implementation of these humanitarian interventions by government and non-government organizations will likely improve food insecurity outcomes, so very poor households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes between October and December.

    During the January to March 2014 period, most poor households in CHCC will continue to meet their food needs through humanitarian assistance and will supplement this with income from agricultural related labor activities. Depending on the quality of the season, food from the green harvest could also improve household food insecurity between February and March. During this period most households in CHC will maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes, with the exception of a few areas where households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), even in the presence of humanitarian assistance.


    Additional Areas of Concern

    Additional analysis was also done on the following secondary areas of concern: Eastern Kalahari Sandveld Communal (EKSC), Kariba Valley Kariangwe Jambezi (KVKJ), Cereal and Low Cotton Producing Communal (CLCC), Beitbridge South Western Communal Livelihood (BSWL), Masvingo Manicaland Middleveld Smallholder (MMSC), Save River Valley Ndowoyo Communal (SRVN), Mwenezi Chivi South Midlands Communal (MCSM), Matebeleland Middleveld Communal (MMHC), Lusulu Lupane Southern Gokwe mixed Agriculture (LLSG), Greater Mudzi Communal (GMUC), Southern Cattle and Cereal Farming (SCCF), Central Northern Semi-intensive Farming (CNSI), Eastern Highlands Prime Communal (EHPC), Northern Zambezi Valley Communal(NZVC), Agro-Fisheries Livelihood Zone (AGFC), Livestock and Cereal Farming in Forests Communal (LCFF), Southern Cattle and Cereal Farming (SCCF).

    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

     Within these additional areas of concern, households will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between July and August as poor household access to necessary food purchases is limited by higher than average prices and limited income from casual labor during this period. Food security is expected to deteriorate further between September and October and poor households in these areas of concern will be in Crisis (IPC 3). Poor households in many of the districts in the areas of concern rely on humanitarian assistance as a normal source of food and income, so in the absence of this assistance households will face survival food deficits starting in late August. However with start of humanitarian food and livelihood support during the October-December period, households in all the areas of concern will experience improved access to food and basic livelihood needs. In the presence of humanitarian assistance poor households in these areas will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.  

    Continued humanitarian assistance between January and March, along with the start of the green harvest in February, will likely result in continued Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity outcomes. However, expected increases in staple prices due to low market cereal supply during the peak lean season will likely affect poor households’ ability to supplement humanitarian assistance through market purchases and some households will likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Stressed outcomes are likely to be experienced in livelihoods zones including, Beitbridge South Western Communal, Mwenezi Chivi South, Midlands Communal, and Masvingo Manicaland Midveld Smallholder. 


    Events that might change the Outlook

    Area

    Event

    Impact on food security outcomes

     

     

     

     

     

    All zones

     

    Inadequate funding of food assistance and livelihood humanitarian support.

    Inadequate humanitarian support will reduce household access to food and result in food insecurity outcomes deteriorating, as food gaps will not be met during the October to December period.

    Disputed elections results may affect humanitarian space and markets.

    Following the elections to be held on July 31st, there is likelihood that any legal disputes arising could disrupt trader market supply flows and reduce humanitarian space. This could result in an increase in food prices and limited access to humanitarian assistance, which will result in deteriorating food insecurity outcomes.

    EKSC and WKSC

    Deportation of people from South Africa

    This will result in the loss of income from remittances which could contribute to deterioration in food insecurity outcomes in these livelihood zones.  

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Current food security outcomes, July 2013

    Figure 2

    Current food security outcomes, July 2013

    Source: FEWS NET

    Primary and secondary livelihood zones of concern

    Figure 3

    Primary and secondary livelihood zones of concern

    Source: FEWS NET

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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