The main harvest significantly improves food availability for poor households

• Households are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. Most households have started consuming their current harvest in both the northern and southern areas of the country. These acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to continue through September in all areas, including districts in the southwest.
• As the new consumption year starts, staple food prices have already started decreasing. Since March, the national average for maize grain has decreased by 11 percent. Maize meal prices remained stable and only registered a 2 percent reduction from last month. The recent drop in maize grain prices is attributed to the beginning of household consumption of cereals from own production.
• Ongoing tobacco curing and sales are boosting household income, particularly in the northern areas, where production levels are projected to have significantly increased. Based on the first round Ministry of Agriculture’s crop and livestock assessment, this year’s production levels has surpassed the 2012-13 season by about 21 percent. The second round assessment is expected to be released within the next month.

Current Situation

• Currently food insecurity outcomes for very poor households across the country are Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to the successful start of the main harvest. These outcomes are expected to continue through September.
• While the results of the second round national crop and livestock assessment are not yet published, the first round results indicate that there are increased chances of an above average harvest, especially for maize, millet, and sorghum. This assumption is based on an estimated 16 percent increase in cropped area for cereals this season in comparison to the 2012/13 season. Maize alone this season accounts for approximately 1.6 million hectares, which is an 18 percent increase from the previous season. This increase in area planted for cereals is due to fairly well distributed rainfall patterns this season.
• In three sentinel districts (Rushinga, Mutare, and Beitbridge) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) shoes that this year’s vegetation conditions were above average, thus increasing changes of an improved harvest this season. The NDVI is a crude estimate of vegetation health and is a means of monitoring changes in vegetation over time (Figure 1).
• The tobacco curing and selling season is currently at its peak in the most northern parts of the country. To date actual tobacco sales have increased by 19 percent compared to same period last year. However, average prices (approximately $3.19/kg) remain 15 percent lower than the same month last year. Despite this current decrease in average prices, total incomes from tobacco remains slightly higher than last year due to the increase in the volumes (21 percent) of cropped tobacco in comparison to the previous year. This will be the second consecutive year of increased production of about 20 percent. At the household level, higher than average tobacco production will increase farmer income levels and opportunities for casual labor opportunities (i.e. curing, processing, transportation) for poor households. Households benefiting from this labor will therefore receive additional income for food purchases and other livelihood needs. 
• Cotton production this season is 16 percent below last year’s levels. The processing of cotton is ongoing in cotton growing areas but incomes are likely to remain low. The reduction in the area under cotton is due to marketing price uncertainty given the low marketing prices offered during the previous season.
• As households begin to access cereal from their own production there have been significant reductions in monthly maize grain price trends. Since March, national maize grain prices have dropped by 11 percent, but in comparison to national averages during the same period last year the prices are still 16 percent higher. For maize meal the national average stands at $0.66 and has decreased by 2 percent in comparison to the same time the previous month, but remains 4 percent higher than the national average for same time last year. Month-on-month maize grain prices fell by 26 and 16 percent in Manicaland and Masvingo Provinces, respectively.
• Livestock body conditions in areas including Matebeleland South and Masvingo Provinces have significantly improved and are in good shape. Despite the improved pasture and water access for cattle, the calving rate included in the recent first round crop and livestock assessment report remains low at 49 percent, and only 2 percent higher than last season. 
• Casual labor for harvesting related activities is reportedly increasing, but due to the limited availability of cash, a number of households are being paid in-kind, mostly through grain.
• The World Food Program (WFP) safety-net programs are still ongoing and mainly cover health and nutrition support initiatives, including people living with HIV/AIDS who are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and those with chronic illnesses such as Tuberculosis. On average WFP normally targets around 300,000 beneficiaries through both safety-net and food for assets programs. In addition to this the government is expected to continue their cash transfer program ($15-25 per month) supporting labor constrained and vulnerable households in a maximum of 22 districts through September.

Assumptions

For the Food Security Outlook for April to September 2014, FEWS NET completed Household Economy Approach (HEA) outcome analysis in 2 livelihood zones. The analysis for the May-September 2014 period is informed by the following national and sub-national level assumptions:

• Cereal production: According to the first round crop estimates and fairly well distributed rainfall this season, there was a 16 percent increase in area planted under cereals in comparison to the 2012/13 production season. Expectations are that cereal production levels will be above the five year average of 1.3 million MT and last year’s production levels of 900,000 MT. Above average cereal production would be sufficient to cover all poor households’ cereal requirements through September.
• Maize meal and grain: National cereal availability will remain stable from April to September due to ongoing harvests and functional markets. Most markets are likely to have adequate locally produced supplies of maize grain and maize meal. Therefore demand from private traders will likely be lower than it has been over the past few years. Since most households are expected to have access to enough cereal to cover their food needs through September, typical flows of cereal supplies from traditional surplus areas to deficit zones will likely be unnecessary.
• Staple food prices:  With anticipated above average cereal production levels this season, staple food prices have already started decreasing in Manicaland Province and a few urban areas, and will likely continue decreasing through the rest of the country between May and June. These price decreases are typical during the post-harvest period due to strong supply and relative low demand since most households are accessing their own food stocks and relying less on markets for purchases. Despite the price decreases anticipated from April through June, average maize prices are still projected to remain 15-25 percent higher than the four-year average. From July through September prices will likely remain stable as most households will still be accessing cereals from their own production.
• Agriculture and other labor availability and rates: Typically, during the April-June period, improved harvests will provide increased opportunities for casual labor for very poor households across the country. In the northern areas, increased tobacco production this year will likely increase casual labor opportunities for poor households through curing and marketing till the end of June. Similar opportunities will exist in cotton growing areas although production levels are likely to be lower than last year due to the 15 percent reduction in the cropped area for cotton. From July through September, most very poor households will engage in construction; however they will likely be paid in-kind due to the current cash flow challenges in Zimbabwe. Overall, casual labor opportunities are expected to increase by 10-20 percent throughout the outlook period.
• Livestock: As a result of the good rainfall distribution this season, which has significantly improved both pasture and water sources for livestock throughout the country, fair to good livestock conditions are expected through September. Prices for livestock are expected to be 40 percent above the reference year owing to improved conditions and improved availability of cereals which will likely reduce livestock distress sales. Household incomes from livestock is also projected to increase by 30 percent above the normal during the outlook period. 
• Social Safety Nets:  Ongoing WFP supported health and nutrition programming for labor constrained households living with a chronic illness will likely continue throughout the outlook period, targeting about 200,000 people between May and September. An additional 100, 000 beneficiaries will likely be supported through the WFP productive asset creation activities for non-labor constrained households from June to September. The current Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) cash transfer program will also continue to support labor constrained and vulnerable households, but the coverage of the program is likely to be extremely limited to no more than 22 districts across the country.
• Self-employment: Activities such as natural resource exploitation or mining are expected to remain at normal levels. The sale of Mopani worms harvested and stocked in April is expected to provide normal income from May to June, particularly in the southwestern parts of the country. Income through precious mineral panning is also expected to be ongoing throughout the outlook period. 
• Vegetable production: The increase in the availability of water due to the good rainfall this season will increase gardening activities from May through September. Vegetable production will provide both food and cash to very poor households.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The majority of very poor households across the country including the traditionally food insecure southwestern districts, will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes between May and June owing to the projected above average 2013/14 harvest. Similar outcomes will continue from July through September as most households will still be consuming cereals from own production. Markets will continue functioning but most of the cereal supplies are likely to be locally procured with a few imports by private traders. Increased cereal supplies in markets due to expected high production levels will likely result in an oversaturation of markets and reduced demand as most households will be consuming cereals from own production. Market prices are expected to decrease between May and June and will remain stable through September.

Casual labor opportunities are projected to increase by up to 20 percent throughout the outlook period as a result of ongoing harvesting activities. Additional incomes, particularly in the northern areas, will be earned through tobacco preparation, sales and casual labor for poor households. However given cash constraints, most casual labor will likely be paid by in-kind.

Beitbridge South Western Lowveld Communal Livelihood zone (BSWLC): covering Matebeleland South Province, and Mangwe, Matobo, Gwanda and Beitbridge districts

Context

A late start of the season resulted in late planting between the second week of December and mid-January in most districts within this livelihood zone. However despite this late start of season, the livelihood zone received heavy rains which raised concerns about possible water-logging and leaching of soils. Production during the previous 2012/13 agricultural season was at its lowest in comparison to the past four seasons. Despite this, the zone is anticipating an above average 2013/14 harvest, which is very unusual in this traditionally drought prone area. 

Current Situation

• After a late start of the season all of the districts in this zone received well distributed rainfall between the months of October and March. In March, the maize WRSI anomaly shows nearly all districts in this zone are within 130 -150 percent of average crop conditions (Figure 2). This indicates that the water required for crops to reach maturity is well above average and this is in line with field observations and FEWS NET key informant interviews which indicated that crop and rainfall conditions are above average and are comparable to the conditions experienced in 1980.
• A few factors that are expected to affect yield prospects this season include heavy rainfall, lack of fertilizers, and crops planted after mid-January. However, an overall increase in the areas cropped across districts is likely to off-set some of these factors. Seasonal performance is expected to be above average in this zone.
• Currently households that planted their crops early are accessing food through their green harvests. Those that planted their crops late are making purchases at local markets. Cereals from the new harvest have not yet reached markets, so the only cereal available in ships is the maize meal sourced from South Africa and Bulawayo. April prices in this area have held steady over the past month and range between $0.60 and $0.65 per kg, which are 8- 20 percent higher than they were during this same period l. As more households increase reliance on green consumption and the early harvest, cereal prices are expected to decrease.
• Opportunities for casual labor are expected to be normal between April and September, following good seasonal performance.
• Livestock conditions are rated as fair to good due to pasture regeneration and availability of water. This has resulted in cattle and goats maintaining selling prices above $350-$400 for cattle and $30-$40 for goats across the zone which are slightly above average.

Masvingo Manicaland Middleveld Communal: covering parts of Chivi, Masvingo, Gutu, Bikita, Buhera, Mutare Zvishavane, Chirumhanzu, and Zaka districts.

Current Situation

• All districts in the livelihood zone have had a near normal start of season with fairly distributed rainfall throughout the season. The March average WRSI anomaly shows most districts covered by the livelihood zone experienced crop conditions that were within the range of 90-130 percent of average crop conditions (Figure 2). This data indicates the water conditions required for crops to reach maturity is well above average when compared to a 10 year average. This is also in line with field observations and FEWS NET key informant interviews with indicated that crop conditions are better than normal. 
• A few factors that are expected to affect yield prospects this season include heavy rainfall and the lack of fertilizers. However, an overall increase in the areas cropped across districts is likely to off-set some of these factors. Seasonal performance is expected to be above average in this zone. The exception is for low lying areas and the basin on the banks of the confluence of Tokwe and Mukosi rivers where floods destroyed crops and led to the displacement of an estimated 2,500 households outside the zone.
• Households are accessing food through market purchases, green harvest consumption and grain from early planted crops. Supplies from the new harvest are not yet available on the market and most of the grain available is from last season and it is being sourced by traders outside the zone. Although prices are higher than average for maize grain ($0.49) and for maize meal ($0.65), they have stabilized since the start of the green consumption and are anticipated to decrease further as the main season harvest continues.
• Opportunities for casual labor (mainly harvesting) are normal following good seasonal performance.
• Livestock conditions are fair to good due to pasture regeneration and the availability of water. This has resulted in cattle and goats prices maintaining above average trends and are ranging between $350-$400 for cattle and $30-$35 for goats across the zone.
• Seasonal targeted assistance ended in March, but the emergency and food assistance for the Tokwe –Mukosi flood victims continues to be supported by various organizations. The government social-safety nets (cash transfers) programming is ongoing.

Assumptions for BSWLC and MMMC Livelihood Zones

In addition to the national assumptions described above, the following assumptions have been made about BSWLC and MMMC livelihood zone:

• Households are likely to experience a significant increase in staple food and cash crops harvests from April to June which will result in significant maize grain supplies entering local markets and decreasing prices. These price reductions are likely to be experienced between May and July as households access most foods from their own production. However, prices are likely to start showing seasonal increases from August/September as demand begins to increase among very poor households that may need to complement their own production with market purchases.
• Harvesting and associated labor activities will progress normally between April and June and labor rates are likely to be favorable due to increased opportunities linked to higher cropped areas and projected above average harvests. However due to cash flow limitations, laborers are likely to be paid in-kind using grain. 
• Households will pursue off farm labor opportunities from May to September.
• Households will start engaging in vegetable production activities from May to September.
• Seasonal targeted assistance for the last consumption year ended in March but the government social-safety nets (cash transfers) program continues to target most vulnerable individuals, along with the WFP productive asset building program.
• Remittances have significantly decreased due to economic challenges and reduced migrant casual opportunities in South Africa. In comparison to the reference year, current levels of remittances have reduced by 20 percent during this outlook period.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

The majority of very poor households throughout BSWLC and MMMC will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes between May and June owing to the projected above average harvest. The same outcomes are expected to continue from July through September because this year’s harvest is expected to be sufficient to cover most household cereal requirements for this period. Markets will continue to provide an alternative source of cereals, at prices that are projected to be below current prices, but still 10-20 percent above reference year levels. Gardening and vegetable production by poor households will likely increase between May and September owing to increased rainfall and improved water access. Additionally, the likely presence of assistance through the WFP safety-net support of productive asset creation programs and the government cash transfer programs will likely help to keep food insecurity outcomes at Minimal levels.

During the entire outlook period, casual labor opportunities are expected to slightly increase but remain within 20 percent of average. These will likely improve cash and food incomes for very poor households and the activities will range from harvest to construction.

Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming six months. Learn more here.