Stability in staple prices improves food access for households in the south

• The food security situation continues to be fairly stable as most households are still consuming staple from own production. Few households in low cereal production areas in the southern parts of the country are supplementing their staples with market purchases.   The majority of households are experiencing Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1).

• Unlike in typical years when staple prices increased significantly in November, current national average grain and meal prices have remained stable since August. Current maize grain prices are the same as the five year average and 20 percent below the two-year average. This price trend is mainly influenced by increased market supply combined with low demand. 

• Land preparation for the 2014/15 agriculture season is starting at a slow pace because rainfall across most areas in the country has been low.  Actual accumulated rainfall from last month is less than 75 percent of average rainfall for the month of October. 

• Maize seed is now available in small quantities in most rural shops but retail prices are nearly 30 percent higher than they were during the same time last year.  Fertilizers are scarce even within district level markets. Most rural households will rely on agriculture inputs from the planned Government input scheme. Although the program is starting late this year it is expected to cover nearly 1.6 million households across the country.

• Staple food is readily available in most markets, including small grains in the south and western areas.  Most households in rural communities are consuming cereals from own production and some households that are fully dependent on labor for food and income are receiving assistance through various forms of safety net programming, including the Government’s harmonized cash transfer program, the World Food Program, the Save the Children cash transfer program, and through the AMALIMA and ENSURE projects that are funded by USAID’s Development Food Assistance Program. Availability of staple food at the household level has resulted in most households experiencing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.
• Preparations for the 2014/2015 agricultural season are slow since rainfall performance remains poor across the country. Based on the Zimbabwe Meteorological Service Department rainfall updates, the accumulated rainfall in October across most parts of the country is below 20 mm and no rains have been received in areas in the extreme northern and south eastern parts of the country. Current rainfall levels are well below normal (approximately < 75 percent), however the national forecast predicts an improvement in the rainfall situation during the second half of November.
•  The main income source for poor households is currently land preparation, which is a typical activity at this time of the year across the country. Some households are engaging in other typical off-farm activities including brick molding, construction, and vegetable sales. However, the income level for off-farm activities is starting to decrease because most households are now beginning to engage in agriculture related activities in preparation for the start of the season. 

The assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the October 2014 to March 2015 Outlook period are still valid and no changes are expected on the food security outcomes. The October 2014 to March 2015 food security outlook  is available online and provides detailed information on the assumptions and projected most likely food security outcomes.  

Most households are projected to experience Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) from December 2014 through March 2015.  The majority of households will still be consuming cereals from their own production from December-January. In February households will increase reliance on market purchases, particularly those in cereal deficit districts in the south and western parts of the country. The start of the green harvest by late February and through March will likely improve household food levels and food consumption patterns in March. Households experiencing some food gaps in Binga and Kariba districts including from the Kariba Kariyangwe Jambezi Livelihood zone will further benefit from the Emergency Food Security Program (implemented through Save the Children) that is providing cash transfers to nearly 32,000 beneficiaries.  Maize grain prices are projected to be stable when compared to the two-year average and 15 percent below last year’s prices while maize meal prices will continue to be above the two-year average and last year’s levels. Demand for both maize meal and maize grain will likely increase between December and February when households’ reliance on the market is also expected to increase.

Livestock conditions are expected to follow seasonal trends and improve from December through March due to the availability of pasture and water once the seasonal rains start. This improvement in animal conditions will impact market prices, increasing income for households selling livestock for food purchases and other livelihood needs during the lean season. Income from typical on-farm casual labor activities, particularly weeding is likely to increase from December through February.