Prospects of an average harvest are high but floods remain a threat to selected areas

• The country is in the peak of the lean season and the food security situation has deteriorated, even in the presence of some half rations being distributed across many parts of the country. Most southwestern areas continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes, while most northern areas are currently facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) food insecurity outcomes in the presence of assistance.
• Continued funding shortfalls for the Seasonal Targeted Assistance (STA) has resulted in continued half rations for a reduced number of households. The number of targeted districts has been reduced from 39 to 16 districts.
• The green harvest has started in some northern areas that planted their crops early. Elsewhere in the southern areas, crop conditions continue to be good and most crops are in the reproductive stage.
• Due to excessive rains received in the last week of January through mid February, households in selected areas in Muzarabani, Gokwe, Middle Sabi, Tsholotsho, Chiredzi, Chivi and Mwenezi districts are under a serious flood threat. Both shelter and crops have been affected in these areas and continued heavy rains could have a negative impact on crop yields.

• Currently food insecurity outcomes for most parts of central and north-central areas of the country are Minimal (IPC Phase 1). Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes continue in the southwestern parts of the country, in the presence of limited assistance. Pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are still evident in parts of districts, including Tsholotsho, Gwanda and Bulilima. These conditions will likely continue from through March.
• As STA funding challenges persist, the WFP has reduced the coverage of the program in line with the available resources. In January about 39 districts were targeted, and this was reduced to 16 districts in February—during the peak of the lean season. This peak period is when most households in drought affected areas normally rely on assistance. Even with this reduction in districts covered, targeted households will continue receiving half rations because resources are not adequate enough for the distribution of full rations. As a result of funding shortages the STA program is not able to provide coverage to meet the food needs of all of the 2.2 million projected by the ZIM VAC to be food insecure during the January to March quarter. Most poor households, including those receiving the half rations will continue to face food gaps and livelihood protection deficits.
• As more households increasingly rely on local markets for cereal purchases due to the reduction in the STA coverage, poor household access will remain limited due to the higher than normal prices. The national average prices for both maize grain and maize meal have not increased much in the past month, but they are approximately 34 and 10 percent higher than same time last year, respectively. 
• Crop conditions across the country are ranging from good to fair and  the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) is ranging from average to very good  (Figure 1). The soil water index is also showing favorable conditions required for the crop to reach maturity. On average the maize crop across the country is now between the early and late reproductive stages with the early planted crop in the northern areas already in the maturity stage. Rainfall conditions remain favorable across the country and unlike in the previous year, the dry spell was mainly mild and only lasted for two weeks from mid January to early February. Prospects of an average harvest remain high in most areas across the country.
• Excessive rains received in the last week of January through early February resulted in floods in Muzarabani, Gokwe, Middle Sabi, Tsholotsho, Chiredzi, Chivi, Mwenezi, Gutu, Mberengwa, and Gwanda districts. In these areas both crops and infrastructure like bridges have been destroyed. In areas around Tokwe Mukorsi Dam in Masvingo, flooding is reportedly threatening both lives and livelihoods of nearly 60,000 people. The Government declared a state of disaster and has made an emergency humanitarian appeal worth about 20 million dollars to cover food and non-food needs for displaced households. There are higher chances of reduced harvests in the flood affected districts listed above.

The current situation has not changed the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the period of January to June 2014. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the January 2014 Food Security Outlook.

The Food Security situation is likely to continue deteriorating between February and March due to the impact of the reduced STA coverage from 39 to 16 districts in February. With the current provision of half rations to the few targeted households in selected districts,  poor households (especially in the southwestern districts) are not likely to fully meet all of their food requirements and will therefore likely experience Stressed ( IPC Phase 2!) food insecurity outcomes. Households in the northern districts are likely to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1 and IPC Phase 1!) outcomes due to the timely start of the green harvest especially for the early planted crops.

April to June is the main harvesting period and most households across the country will start accessing food from own production. Current conditions and forecasts for good rains from February through March will increase chances of a normal harvest; improving cereal supplies on the market and reducing cereal market prices. Most districts across the country, including southwestern areas, will likely experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes from April through June.
 

ABOUT THIS UPDATE
This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook.