Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expanding during lean season through March

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand in early 2026 as an increasing number of households face difficulty accessing food. Households in these areas are expected to have depleted own produced food stocks. With grain stocks low or unavailable on the market in some areas, many poor households will likely face challenges purchasing staple cereal, mainly maize meal, due to below-average purchasing power. Meanwhile, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to prevail in most typical surplus-producing areas of the Mashonaland Provinces during the same period. Poor households in these areas are expected to meet only their minimal food needs through own-produced stocks or seasonal casual labor engagement at below-normal levels due to low payments.
• Acute food security is expected to improve from April/May 2026 throughout the country driven by most likely favorable 2026 harvest following the forecast above-average rainy season. This will result in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Many households are expected to consume food from their own production. Meanwhile, as market supplies increase, staple-food prices are expected to be at a seasonal low, improving access for non-crop-producing households, especially in urban areas.
• Above-average rainfall between October 1 and December 15 in most areas is facilitating engagement in land preparation and planting activities. However, Mashonaland Central, northern areas of Mashonaland East, and localized areas in Masvingo provinces have received below-average rainfall since October. Water and pasture conditions have improved. Given sufficient rainfall by early December, planting is ongoing across the country, and planted areas are significantly higher than at the same time last year.
• Typical seasonal income-earning activities and household income remain at below-normal levels across many parts of the country. These include food crop sales due to lack of stocks among the poor in some areas, agricultural labor, self-employment, petty trade, remittances, and cross-border trade. Most of these have been reduced due to localized rainfall deficits last year and continued macroeconomic constraints.

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 19, 2025. 

• Maize imports are supporting staple food price stability. According to the South African Grain Information Service, maize grain imports from South Africa by commercial millers, processors and stock feed manufacturers increased since October as maize grain import restrictions eased (Figure 1). As a result, maize meal remains available on the market at stable prices.

• Planting continued in December, and all indications are that planted area will be above last year and above average due to sufficient soil moisture.
• The Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency indicated in November, monthly inflation (ZWG, USD, and blended) has been mostly stable for much of 2025, but annual inflation is high enough that prices for food and other essential items are high compared to what poor households were paying last year. The November ZWG and USD food and non-food inflation were 0.7 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, the same as October. November ZWG annual headline inflation dropped to 19 percent from 32.7 percent in October. The USD annual headline inflation remained high but stable in November at about 13 percent, the same as October. The main categories driving annual headline inflation in November were food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels. Most transactions in the country continue to be conducted in USD.
• Rainfall has not been well distributed across the country, but it has led to good pasture conditions and facilitated planting. According to the Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe, between October and mid-December, most western and northern areas, as well as parts of Masvingo and Manicaland Provinces, had received above average rainfall. However, Mashonaland Central Province, northern parts of Mashonaland East Province, and patches in Masvingo Province, received below average rainfall from October to mid-December. Key informants report localized variability in rainfall distribution even in areas recording above-average rains, with some pockets experiencing drier conditions and uneven spatial and temporal distribution. Even with poor temporal distribution of rainfall, planted area has been expanded compared to last year. Pasture or veld conditions have improved across most areas.
• Favorable rainfall has not restored electrical generation capacity from Lake Kariba and associated income-sources that rely on electricity. The Zambezi River Authority reports that water levels in the lake were steadily declining and usable live storage for hydropower generation was about 4.7 percent as of December 16, compared to about 2.4 percent same time last year, with both of these figures being below-average.
• The government suspended import duties on fertilizer, specifically ammonium nitrate and urea, early this month. The policy change is expected to increase supplies and lower fertilizer prices, improving farmer access and supporting increases in crop yields. However, poor households will likely not increase their fertilizer purchase and use due to low disposable income.
• The government released the 2026 national budget at the end of November, which includes an increase of the Value Added Tax (VAT) by 0.5 percent to 15.5 percent, effective January 1, 2026. The announcement did not lead to any immediate price adjustments.
• In November, flash floods have already occured in Masvingo and Matabeleland. Floods resulted in deaths in some cases and some damage to a small number of homes and schools.
• Floods killed miners already this season. Many poor households do some artisanal, small-scale mining each year as an additional income source, especially during the December to February lean season. Authorities are issuing warnings that mining can be especially dangerous this year due to continued risk of floods and dangerous conditions in some mining areas due to soaked ground.

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook from October 2025 to May 2026 remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• While cumulative October 2025 to March 2026 seasonal rainfall is still most likely to be above average, rainfall for January to March is most likely to be average. Given above-average rainfall for the first half of the season, October to December, cumulative rainfall will still be above average.
• Above-average cumulative rainfall most likely will result in higher-than-average incidences of some crop pests and livestock diseases. Poor households are expected to continue experiencing access challenges to pesticides and drugs on the market due to low disposable income and high prices. While unlikely to lead to widespread reductions in crop and livestock production, untreated pests and diseases will decrease food production and income for affected households.
• Following overall favorable 2024-2025 seasonal October to March rainfall and elevated groundwater levels, especially in the southern districts, groundwater regeneration is expected to be above-average during the 2025-2026 rainy season. This will ensure above-average ground and surface water levels during and after the rains and is expected to enhance water availability and access for household and livelihood use.
• With the ground already being wet, there will be more flooding than is typical during the December to March rainy season. Floods will mainly but not only occur in the southern areas.
• Artisanal and small-scale mining activities are likely to be affected by flooding in some areas, negatively impacting income from this source. Following some fatalities early this rainy season, authorities have warned on the risks of such activities where no proper measures are available. This is likely to reduce the number of people engaging in small-scale mining and the amount of time they devote to this income source, decreasing incomes.
• Water levels at Lake Kariba are currently so low that despite the favorable rainfall forecast, they will remain below-average levels through the end of the outlook period in May. This is expected to continue affecting power generation and negatively impacting some income-earning activities. While water levels will increase with rainfall inflows through the end of the rainy season in March, seasonal peak levels will most likely remain well below average.
• With the start of the new Value Added Tax (VAT) rates expected in January 2026, the prices of goods and services are anticipated to increase slightly. As a result, while food crop prices like maize will still likely follow their typical seasonal pattern of rising during the lean season and falling once the harvest starts in April, there is likely to be a higher-than-typical price increase in January and February, especially for processed foods like maize meal and cooking oil. 

Deficit-producing areas: From December 2025 through March 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across most typical deficit-producing areas of Matabeleland North and South, Masvingo, Manicaland, Midlands, and the far northern parts of the Mashonaland provinces. During the lean season from December to February, poor households will be almost entirely market dependent and likely have food consumption deficits. By March, the green harvest will start to fill these deficits. A few deficit-producing areas will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), meaning households will only meet their minimum food needs but struggle to afford other essential non-food expenses.

Food security outcomes in deficit-producing areas are expected to improve by April or May. This is when the 2026 main harvest begins and increases dietary diversity and food consumption. Most areas are expected to move into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while others will likely experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. 

Surplus-producing areas: Between December 2025 and March 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in a few of the surplus-producing areas in the Mashonaland Provinces. These are areas that were negatively affected by the poor progression of the October-2024-to-March-2025 rainy season, including northwestern areas of Mashonaland West. Food consumption gaps are likely to peak in February and March during the lean season. However, most areas are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. As the main harvests, which are expected to be above average, come in April and May 2026, the situation is expected to significantly improve with most areas expected to move into Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

Urban areas: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through May 2026. Typical incomes for poor urban households are likely to remain atypically low, limiting household purchasing power. From April/May 2026 with the coming in of harvests, poor households engaged in urban and peri-urban agriculture are expected to get own-produced food stocks or in-kind crop remittances from rural areas. Seasonal low grain prices will also improve market access. However, despite these consumption improvements, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist as poor households continue to struggle to meet their non-food needs. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Multi-week dry spell and below-average rainfall from January to March 2026

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: This would reduce crop and livestock production. The green harvest beginning in February and March would be lower than currently anticipated, as would the main harvest that starts in April. The lean season would be prolonged, as improvements in food security conditions associated with the harvest would be limited and delayed for the affected areas. Agricultural labor opportunities and labor rates both for cash and in-kind payments will likely be atypically low. If the dry spell lasts long enough, it could also affect water and pasture conditions, negatively impacting livestock body conditions, sales, and prices, especially for cattle. The availability of seasonal fruits and other wild products, such as Mopane worms in the southern and western areas, could also be reduced. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes could continue in typical deficit-producing areas with mainly Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in typical surplus-producing areas.