Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Widespread heavy rainfall in the first half of December decreased early season rainfall deficits across much of the country, especially in the north. Cumulative rainfall from October to mid-December is normal to above normal across most of the country (Figure 1). There are some areas where rainfall deficits have been reported in the southeast and extreme northern parts of the country. In some areas, heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds and flash flooding caused localized damage to crops, houses, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. The wet spell also led to increased engagement in agricultural activities, especially planting. Official reports indicate area planted to date is higher than at the same time last year. However, key informants in many areas point to planted areas being still lower than expected despite prevailing wet conditions. One of the reasons relates to concentrated efforts on smaller government-promoted conservation farming plots.

As a result of increased rainfall, water availability and pasture conditions improved across much of the country. The Zimbabwe National Water Authority reported national average dam water levels have somewhat increased though still quite low, at about 37 percent in the first week of December. Livestock conditions remain poor to fair, especially in typical low rainfall areas.

In early December, the government announced new producer prices for the 2020/21 season, increasing maize grain prices by over 50 percent and nearly 75 percent for small or traditional grains. Moreover, soya prices increased by over 150 percent. This is partially an incentive for farmers to produce the crops and in recognition of the depreciated local currency. Agricultural input distributions from the Presidential Input Scheme continue in various parts of the country. Given constrained livelihoods and incomes among poor urban households, the government has announced plans to distribute crop inputs to targeted urban and peri-urban farmers for the 2020/21 cropping season.

According to ZIMSTAT, in November, the official annual inflation decreased to 402 percent, decreasing for the fourth consecutive month. The monthly inflation rate also dropped in November to 3.2 percent from 4.4 percent in October. Despite this, the cost of living in rural and urban areas continues to increase, mainly driven by the continued high inflation rates. The official and parallel market exchange rates have been relatively stable in recent months. The government has reemphasized that the multi-currency regime will continue with the ZWL as the official currency. Diesel prices increased by almost 20 percent in the first week of December, while petrol prices increased only marginally.

Maize grain and maize meal remain generally unavailable across markets in deficit-producing areas and remote parts of the country. This, coupled with high market demand and poor macroeconomic conditions, is driving price increases in some areas. In surplus-producing areas of the Mashonaland provinces, maize grain prices are relatively stable, averaging 5 USD per 17.5 kg bucket. In most deficit areas, maize prices increased by nearly 20 percent over the last 2 to 3 months to 7 USD per bucket on average. Maize prices are predominantly in USD, marked at or above the parallel market exchange rates in ZWL. As income remains generally stagnant, this is limiting many poor households’ access to market foods.

As was in November, the number of confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases reported continues to increase at higher rates in December than in September and October. Most of the local infections were from schools and other learning institutions as schools re-opened at the end of November. The government indicated no intentions to impose stringent lockdown measures but to continue enforcing basic preventative measures. Land borders re-opened to pedestrians and private vehicles on December 1, though public buses reportedly continue to be restricted from crossing borders. Despite the re-opening of the border, the movement of people across the borders did not substantially increase, partly and largely due to the high cost of COVID-19 testing requirements.

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across most deficit-producing areas of Matabeleland, Masvingo, Manicaland, and Midlands Provinces. Humanitarian assistance in some districts has resulted in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Most surplus areas in parts of the Mashonaland Provinces in the north are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as poor households are unable to meet their non-food needs. Urban areas continue to be mainly Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to constrained livelihoods and incomes.