Favorable rainfall persists across most areas, though area planted remains lower than expected
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase
countries:
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
CURRENT SITUATION
Widespread heavy rainfall in the first half of December decreased early season rainfall deficits across much of the country, especially in the north. Cumulative rainfall from October to mid-December is normal to above normal across most of the country (Figure 1). There are some areas where rainfall deficits have been reported in the southeast and extreme northern parts of the country. In some areas, heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds and flash flooding caused localized damage to crops, houses, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. The wet spell also led to increased engagement in agricultural activities, especially planting. Official reports indicate area planted to date is higher than at the same time last year. However, key informants in many areas point to planted areas being still lower than expected despite prevailing wet conditions. One of the reasons relates to concentrated efforts on smaller government-promoted conservation farming plots.
As a result of increased rainfall, water availability and pasture conditions improved across much of the country. The Zimbabwe National Water Authority reported national average dam water levels have somewhat increased though still quite low, at about 37 percent in the first week of December. Livestock conditions remain poor to fair, especially in typical low rainfall areas.
In early December, the government announced new producer prices for the 2020/21 season, increasing maize grain prices by over 50 percent and nearly 75 percent for small or traditional grains. Moreover, soya prices increased by over 150 percent. This is partially an incentive for farmers to produce the crops and in recognition of the depreciated local currency. Agricultural input distributions from the Presidential Input Scheme continue in various parts of the country. Given constrained livelihoods and incomes among poor urban households, the government has announced plans to distribute crop inputs to targeted urban and peri-urban farmers for the 2020/21 cropping season.
According to ZIMSTAT, in November, the official annual inflation decreased to 402 percent, decreasing for the fourth consecutive month. The monthly inflation rate also dropped in November to 3.2 percent from 4.4 percent in October. Despite this, the cost of living in rural and urban areas continues to increase, mainly driven by the continued high inflation rates. The official and parallel market exchange rates have been relatively stable in recent months. The government has reemphasized that the multi-currency regime will continue with the ZWL as the official currency. Diesel prices increased by almost 20 percent in the first week of December, while petrol prices increased only marginally.
Maize grain and maize meal remain generally unavailable across markets in deficit-producing areas and remote parts of the country. This, coupled with high market demand and poor macroeconomic conditions, is driving price increases in some areas. In surplus-producing areas of the Mashonaland provinces, maize grain prices are relatively stable, averaging 5 USD per 17.5 kg bucket. In most deficit areas, maize prices increased by nearly 20 percent over the last 2 to 3 months to 7 USD per bucket on average. Maize prices are predominantly in USD, marked at or above the parallel market exchange rates in ZWL. As income remains generally stagnant, this is limiting many poor households’ access to market foods.
As was in November, the number of confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases reported continues to increase at higher rates in December than in September and October. Most of the local infections were from schools and other learning institutions as schools re-opened at the end of November. The government indicated no intentions to impose stringent lockdown measures but to continue enforcing basic preventative measures. Land borders re-opened to pedestrians and private vehicles on December 1, though public buses reportedly continue to be restricted from crossing borders. Despite the re-opening of the border, the movement of people across the borders did not substantially increase, partly and largely due to the high cost of COVID-19 testing requirements.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across most deficit-producing areas of Matabeleland, Masvingo, Manicaland, and Midlands Provinces. Humanitarian assistance in some districts has resulted in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Most surplus areas in parts of the Mashonaland Provinces in the north are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as poor households are unable to meet their non-food needs. Urban areas continue to be mainly Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to constrained livelihoods and incomes.
UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS
Most of the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook for October 2020 to May 2021 remain unchanged except for the following:
- Based on model forecasts, rainfall for the January to March 2021 period across most of the country is expected to be average, with average cumulative rainfall expected for the 2020/21 season. Due to the heavy rainfall in December and the likely average rainfall after that, the area planted is most likely to be near normal.
PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH MAY 2021
As household food stocks are generally unavailable and access to market food is limited for most poor households in deficit producing areas of Matabeleland, Masvingo, Midlands, Manicaland, and the northern parts of the Mashonaland Provinces, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through at least March 2021. In these areas, most poor households are expected to engage in consumption-based coping such as limiting portion sizes and skipping meals and livelihoods-based strategies, including extended casual labor, petty trading, and livestock sales. In the worst cases, some households are expected to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) as they face large food consumption gaps and extreme loss and/or depletion of livelihood assets. Significant humanitarian assistance is expected to continue through the lean season in some areas, improving food access and resulting in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes.
In most surplus-producing areas, mainly in the Mashonaland Provinces, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to prevail through March 2021. With exhausted or much reduced own-produced food stocks, poor households are expected to rely mainly on markets for food, though access to markets for non-food items is expected to be limited due to high prices.
Across the country, as the harvest begins and access to own food improves beginning in April 2021, food security outcomes are expected to improve with Stressed (IPC Phase 2), expected to be the highest area level phase classification. Urban areas are anticipated to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
About this Update
This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.
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