Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Following erratic and poorly distributed rains, cumulative rainfall through early December was generally below average. Mid-November rains were followed by three weeks of little to no precipitation accompanied by very high temperatures, affecting agricultural activities, other livelihoods activities such as casual labor, self-employment, sale of wild products, and resulted in water stress in some planted crops. Moderate to heavy rainfall during the second week of December decreased rainfall deficits with average to above average cumulative rainfall as of mid-December in areas of the country. This slightly increased agriculture activities; however, cropping activity, mainly land preparation, planting, fertilizer application, and weeding remain below average. Dry and hot conditions again set in after the short rains. As a result, area planted for the 2019/20 season is expected to be substantially below average, also in part due to widespread crop input and draught power shortages. Livestock conditions, especially for cattle, remain poor as water and pasture availability and access challenges continue. As of early December, nearly 21,000 drought-related cattle deaths have been reported in Matebeleland North and South Provinces this year, which is above normal levels. Additionally, atypically high numbers of livestock deaths have been reported in other parts of the country. Incomes from livestock sales are also below average given the poor livestock conditions and erosion of herd sizes due to consecutive poor seasons.

Typical livelihood activities for this time of the year are severely being impacted by the negative macroeconomic environment, last season’s below normal harvests, and poor progression of the 2019/20 rainfall season. On- and off-farm cash and in-kind casual labor opportunities are very limited and payment rates are below normal, taking away a significant seasonal income source. Petty trade has increased; however, household incomes are very low and unpredictable due to poor demand as a result of poor disposable incomes on the markets. Bartering for grain or other basic food commodities is being reported in some communities, involving for instance livestock (large and small), household assets and garden produce. Some household members are migrating for labor as a coping strategy to purchase food and other basic needs.

Inflationary pressures continue as prices of most goods and services further increase, some in US Dollar terms, as the end of 2019 approaches. The new Zimbabwe Dollar (ZWL) notes and coins as well as bond notes and coins remain in short supply in the formal markets. Parallel market exchange rates and interbank market rates for the US Dollar increased by about 10 percent in December from the November rates, averaging ZWL $21.0 and ZWL $16.5 (electronic or mobile transfers) to the US Dollar, respectively. The ZWL in the parallel market is selling between 40 and 55 percent, affecting most poor households whose incomes are very low and quickly depreciating.

The demand for cash is high as cash payments for goods and services are generally cheaper than electronic and mobile money payments (especially in the informal markets). Some goods and services are only available for cash, which is very scarce. Coins less than ZWL $1 are increasingly being rejected in the formal and informal markets as inflation increases. Fuel and electricity shortages continue, contributing to the high pricing of goods and services. The government re-introduced the maize meal subsidy in early December following the near doubling of prices at the end of November after the government had indicated plans to remove the subsidy starting January 2020. Though some outlets have reduced maize meal prices, others have not yet done so in response. Maize meal shortages are being reported across most markets following the announcement to remove the maize grain subsidy. Most markets are without maize grain and imports are slow as a result of foreign currency shortages.

Currently, most of the country is experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes, with some areas of the country in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) as humanitarian assistance is improving outcomes.