Famine Early Warning Systems Network

In typical deficit-producing areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to persist until the start of the harvest in April 2023. In the surplus-producing areas’ communal areas and resettlement areas Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to continue through the outlook period, respectively. Following the harvest, most typical deficit-producing areas are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September, with at least one in five poor households expected to meet their basic food needs but be unlikely to meet other food and non-food needs. Most northern surplus-producing areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through the outlook period, with urban areas likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

Crop conditions have significantly improved following favorable rainfall in the northern and typical surplus-producing areas during the second half of the 2022/23 rainy season. However, in some areas water logging, caused by persistent rainfall, has rendered some fields unworkable, resulting in soil leaching, weed infestation and the poor application of fertilizers and chemicals. In the south, improvements in water, pasture, and some crop conditions have been recorded despite poor rainfall distribution, with some of the crop experiencing water stress. Nationally, the upcoming harvests may be affected by general input access challenges, below-normal cropped areas for some areas, dry spells in the south, and excessive rainfall in some northern areas.

The macroeconomic environment has remained generally volatile and is likely to remain so during the outlook period despite some relative stability at the end of 2022. The local currency (ZWL) has continued to depreciate against the USD in formal and informal markets, where goods and services are increasingly priced in USD or ZAR. Additionally, the prices of goods and services continue to increase, even in USD, a trend that is likely to persist. A January 2023 ZIMSTAT survey report indicated that almost 80 percent of transactions for food purchases are in USD, with the rest in ZWL. Despite progressive declines in monthly and annual inflation over the last few months, the cost of living remains very high. Poor households continue to struggle to meet their food and non-food needs. According to the World Bank, Zimbabwe’s January 2023 real annual food inflation rate in ZWL was 121 percent, the highest in the world.

Households are relying on seasonal agricultural casual labor for income in many areas, especially in the north, but opportunities are expected to remain below normal due to liquidity challenges. To earn income, some households in rural and urban areas are increasing their reliance on petty trade, but incomes will likely trend below normal due to high competition and below-normal demand. Livestock sales are also likely to be impacted by below-normal demand despite improvements in livestock conditions. Additionally, domestic and foreign remittances are expected to remain below normal due to liquidity challenges and the residence and work permit difficulties faced by some Zimbabweans in South Africa.