Key Message Update

Farmers gain from improved prices as maize market competition stiffens

September 2016

September 2016

Zambia September 2016 Food Security Projections for September

October 2016 - January 2017

Zambia September 2016 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Minimal (IPC Phase 1) will largely continue in most parts of the country. However between October 2016 and January 2017 Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in districts in southeastern and southwestern Zambia, as well as Mambwe district in Eastern Province.  The majority of households in areas of concern are still largely depending on their reduced 2015/16 harvests a little longer than initially anticipated. These households are employing their normal livelihood strategies for now, but what is of concern in the next few months is the impact of the shortage of water for humans and livestock because some boreholes and streams have dried up.  Vegetable production, an off season income source for some households, will be negatively impacted and livestock conditions in major livestock rearing regions are expected to deteriorate. 

  • Maize meal and grain outflows continue into neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Malawi despite border monitoring efforts and restrictions on formal maize exports. This flow is being driven by the price differential and atypically high demand outside of Zambia. Traders are ferrying maize grain and maize meal in Malawi by using undesignated crossing points.  This marketing year, there has been an increased interaction between traders from Malawi and the DRC and Zambian farmers, resulting in lower profit margins for middlemen. 

  • The increased competition this marketing season has resulted in record maize buying prices of ZMK 2.2-2.4/kg for the Copperbelt and Eastern Provinces, respectively, during the June to early August period. These higher price have been highly beneficial to farmers.  Apart from maize, farmers are also receiving good prices for soybeans and sunflower and demand has been equally high.  Incomes that farmers are receiving through crop sales is likely to act as an incentive for farmers to increase production for the 2016/17 season, provided rainfall is good and input prices are more affordable.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics