Slow start to the 2014/15 rainy season in northern Zambia

Acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through at least March 2015. This is due to the good 2014 harvest which is expected to result in a milder than usual December-February lean season. 

Maize and meal prices remained relatively stable but still above the five-year average despite the good market supply partially due to high marketing costs. Poor households will start to exhaust their stocks later than usual, in December. These households will then increase their market purchases of staple foods at a time when prices will are increasing seasonally during the lean season. 

Seasonal rainfall has been slow to start in northern Zambia, despite forecasts of average to above-average total seasonal rainfall by the Zambia Department of Meteorology. Land preparation is advanced, while most farmers are awaiting rains to become established before planting. The current rainfall pattern is not yet of concern as the optimal timing for planting includes December for most crops.

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October to March.