Key Message Update

Average maize harvest attained despite a poor and erratic start to the season

May 2016

May 2016

Zambia May 2016 Food Security Projections for May

June - September 2016

Zambia May 2016 Food Security Projections for June to September

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The harvest for the main cropping season is ongoing, and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes will continue from May to September  in most parts of the country due to increased household food supplies. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected during this period in parts of the extreme southwest and southeast, where local production was adversely affected by prolonged dry spells.

  • Despite the late start of the 2015/16 season and erratic rainfall experienced during the first half, recent crop forecast survey estimates indicate that Zambia’s maize production this season will be at the national average of 2.87 million MT. This year’s maize production, combined with the estimated maize carryover stock of approximately 667,500 MT, is expected to substantially exceed national requirements this consumption year.  Average production is also estimated for sorghum, millet, and groundnuts, while cassava, rice, and beans are estimated to be at levels that are below average. Sweet potatoes are expected to increase significantly this year because these crops were planted when seasonal rainfall improved during the late January/February period. Commercially planted soybean production is also expected to increase this season.

  • In order to protect consumers from the high maize meal prices, the government has been implementing price interventions since April. This intervention has resulted in some price reductions in some areas, however prices for non-food items continue to be high as well, reducing household purchasing power. Although local currently has appreciated by 14 percent since April, this has not translated into commodity price reductions. Between May and July, maize prices are likely to reduce or stabilize but will still remain above the recent five-year average. Maize prices are also expected to rise earlier than usual during the outlook period because of very high regional demand. Livestock prices are expected to remain within average levels given the average crop harvest. 

  • Given the estimated moderate maize surplus, the high export parity price, and the anticipated regional deficit, demand for Zambian maize will be very high. Strong export demand is expected from the DRC, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. This high regional demand is likely to keep local maize prices high. The DRC has already requested  30,000 MT formal exports from Zambia and this will be met by the private sector. The government has announced that they will purchase 1 million MT of maize for the same price as the previous season from the FRA.  To safeguard the country’s food security, new maize exports will begin after September 2016. However, exports already contracted from the previous season will be allowed. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics