Key Message Update

Farmer earnings decline as maize prices drop substantially

July 2017

July - September 2017

Zambia July 2017 Food Security Projections for July to September

October 2017 - January 2018

Zambia July 2017 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Generally, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes are expected across the country from July 2017 to January 2018 as household food supplies increase considerably with the recent harvest. Household dietary diversity has improved as access to a variety of foods has increased. Despite this situation, the 2017/18 annual Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis by the Zambia VAC assessed sixteen chronically food insecure areas and found that nine of the districts are in need of food or cash assistance from August 2017 to March 2018. Additionally, a monitoring system to track food security status has been recommended to be put in place for these areas. 

  • Maize marketing activities are slower than usual due to low local and regional demand. Therefore, maize prices range from around ZMK 40-50 per 50 kg bag in most districts, which is causing concern among farmers. In comparison to last year, current maize prices have dropped by more than 50 percent. In a few districts (e.g. Monze & Mkushi) maize prices are slightly higher at ZMK 55-65 per 50 kg bag, however this may be temporary. Soya bean prices have also dropped by as much as 65 percent in comparison to the previous season because current supply is much higher than demand. Meanwhile, the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) announced on July 25th that the buying price for the season will be pegged at ZMK 60 per 50 kg bag. This price is disappointing for farmers that were anticipating a better price from the FRA.  The FRA is likely to purchase 500,000 MT of maize for the strategic grain reserves starting in August. 

  • Formal maize exports to mostly Tanzania continue, but at a slow pace despite the removal of the export ban and 10 percent export duty. Drivers of this may include the limited regional market and the logistical challenges of exporting to Kenya. Additionally, the recent appreciation of the local currency will make Zambian maize more expensive and less competitive. In contrast, substantial levels of informal maize continue to be exported to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Tanzania. Meanwhile, the tender by the FRA to sell 100,000 MT of last season’s maize to potential exporters closed and it is in the process of awarding the successful bidders.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics