Key Message Update

Slow start to the 2014/15 rainy season in northern Zambia

November 2014
2014-Q4-1-2-ZM-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through at least March 2015. This is due to the good 2014 harvest which is expected to result in a milder than usual December-February lean season. 

  • Maize and meal prices remained relatively stable but still above the five-year average despite the good market supply partially due to high marketing costs. Poor households will start to exhaust their stocks later than usual, in December. These households will then increase their market purchases of staple foods at a time when prices will are increasing seasonally during the lean season. 

  • Seasonal rainfall has been slow to start in northern Zambia, despite forecasts of average to above-average total seasonal rainfall by the Zambia Department of Meteorology. Land preparation is advanced, while most farmers are awaiting rains to become established before planting. The current rainfall pattern is not yet of concern as the optimal timing for planting includes December for most crops.

     

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October to March.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics