Key Message Update

Crop conditions are poor in the extreme south due to erratic rainfall

January 2016
2015-Q4-3-3-ZM-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • While in most northern and central regions of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to continue, in the southwestern Cereal Timber livelihood zone , food security is expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes by March. Households in this area are facing very limited local agricultural labor opportunities, so they are seeking labor in Namibia instead. Livestock prices in this area are also well below average, and food prices continue to be well above average.  

  • Following a generally late start of season in most areas, rainfall amounts have been below average, erratic, and poorly distributed for the southern half of the country (Southern, Central, Western, Lusaka, Eastern Provinces) due to the ongoing El Niño. These conditions  have resulted in delayed planting, a reduction in planted area, and  reduced cropping is likely to result in a smaller green harvest. Additionally, livestock are being moved long distances to access water, increasing the risk of disease outbreak.  

  • Although the country has more than adequate maize stocks to meet the needs for the remainder of the 2015/16 marketing season, the local maize and meal prices have remained significantly above the recent five-year average due to higher regional demand and higher production costs. Higher inflation is impacting the costs of staple food and other commodities, and continues to erode the purchasing power of poor households in both urban and rural areas.  

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics