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- The 2023/24 rainy season was among the worst in 40 years for several countries in Southern Africa, driven by an El Niño-induced drought. As a result, the 2024 regional maize harvest was 9 percent below average and 19 percent lower than in 2023 (Figure 1). The region, typically self-sufficient in maize, faces a deficit. The aggregate supply for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is 8 percent below average and 16 percent lower than that of the MY 2023/24, resulting in an atypical shift to net-importer status for the region. The region is expected to register a negative net maize supply of 2 million MT, the lowest that supplies have been since MY 2016/17 when supplies were 5.9 million MT short following the severe 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought. Regional maize production cannot meet demand, so atypical supply gaps are expected.
- Most countries have a maize deficit, while South Africa and Tanzania posted minor and significant surpluses for the 2024/25 MY (Figure 2). Zambia, one of three key maize-producing countries in the region, has an atypical deficit this MY and posted a nearly 50 percent maize harvest decline from the five-year average. Malawi and Mozambique are typically self-sufficient and have a deficit supply. Tanzania registered a record maize harvest, notably not impacted by the below-average rainfall that affected much of Southern Africa.
- FEWS NET monitors trends in staple food supply and price trends in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement, and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report.
- Due to tighter-than-normal regional maize supplies, the region will need international imports to satisfy requirements among maize-deficient countries. Current projections indicate that these international imports will sufficiently fill the regional deficit, though at higher costs than usual. South Africa imported 480,748 MT of yellow maize from Argentina between May and August 2024 and Zimbabwe and Mozambique are expected to import later in the MY. Shifts in sourcing and humanitarian food assistance programming are expected.
- South Africa’s maize export volumes to Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, and Eswatini (BLNE countries) are expected to be sufficient to meet their import needs. However, exports to Zimbabwe may be constrained due to high competition among these countries for access to South African maize. Similarly, Tanzania's exports to Malawi, DRC (Haut-Katanga), and Zambia will be above average due to reduced harvests in Zambia and Malawi and supportive price differentials. However, some exports are still expected to flow to East Africa. Despite this, Tanzania's surplus is projected to be sufficient to cover the needs of both Southern and East African importers.
- Due to below-average regional supplies, maize grain prices in August were generally above the five-year average and the previous year’s levels, especially in Malawi, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. Prices are expected to remain above last year’s levels, increase atypically as the lean season approaches, and be more variable than usual throughout the MY.