Supply and Market Outlook

Southern Africa Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook

July 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
WFP
IAPRI

Key Messages

  • The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with the start of regional harvests in Southern Africa. Moving into the 2020/21 marketing year, opening stocks were 20 percent below average. Below average opening stocks were offset by the region’s above-average 2020 maize harvest despite dryness experienced in many areas earlier in the year.

  • Southern Africa, which is typically self-sufficient in maize, is expected to register well above average net maize supply —over four million MT. This supply will be above the previous 2019/20 marketing year and similar to 2018/19. Structurally deficit countries are expected to maintain typical import dependence, while the import gap in Zimbabwe will be well above average. South Africa, the region’s largest maize exporter will have an above-average surplus while Zambia will maintain its surplus at below-average levels. Malawi will also have an above-average surplus.

  • In terms of intra-regional trade, South Africa’s maize export volumes to Zimbabwe are expected to remain above average while Zambia’s exports are expected to remain below average. Given anticipated imports by Kenya from international markets, export demand from Tanzania destined for East Africa are expected to be limited. Some international trade (via South Africa) is also expected.

  • After reaching elevated levels in late 2019 and early 2020, regional maize prices declined rapidly between March and May 2020. Nonetheless prices are expected to be well above average in Zimbabwe, DRC, Madagascar, and Malawi for the remainder of the 2020/21 marketing year and near average for the rest of the countries

  • Although food availability within the region is expected to be adequate and only localized price anomalies are expected, food access among market-dependent households is expected to remain constrained due to COVID-19 lockdown measures. Export restrictions designed to secure domestic food availability in addition to existing COVID-19 related movement restrictions and intensified border screenings may compound food access constraints in deficit countries.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics