Supply and Market Outlook

Regional Maize Supply and Market Outlook Update

April 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
IAPRI
WFP

Key Messages

  • Poor seasonal performance due to delays in planting is expected to create harvest setbacks which will affect supplies in Market Year (MY) 2022/23. Anticipated below average cereal production will increase national maize import demand in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar and Angola in MY 2022/23.

  • In January 2022, stock levels remained at comfortable levels in maize surplus countries with ending stocks as a share of total consumption projected to be above average. Supplies in South Africa, Zambia, Tanzania and Malawi remained adequate and are expected to satisfy requirements of regional maize deficit countries through MY 2021/22. In South Africa, the projected ending stock level as of April 30, 2022, is estimated at 2.1 million tons, with a stock to usage ratio (SUR) of 24 percent, above MY 2020/21 levels 

  • The seasonal upward trend of maize grain prices in most markets will continue, at least until March as the demand for maize grain rises and peaks at the height of the lean season. Although high stock levels will continue to ease upward pressure on domestic prices for the remaining part of this marketing year, rising production costs for energy, fertilizer and labor as well as weak exchange rates and low global inventories, is amplifying seasonal price trends upward.

  • With the onset of the Ukraine crisis, there are concerns about the impact on local prices and availability as the region is a net importer of wheat and edible oil, energy, and fertilizers. Governments in the region are expected to safeguard domestic food supplies and seek sources, possibility to the detriment of regional trade.  Oil- and gas-producing Angola and Mozambique may boost international export revenues, and high maize prices may benefit exporters like Zambia, South Africa and Tanzania while increasing prices paid by regional trade partners (e.g. BLNE). Elevated and rising commodity prices will place upward pressure on domestic inflation, and slowdown economic growth.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics