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Rainfall Forecast for the 2016/17 Agricultural Season, issue #1

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Southern Africa
  • September 29, 2016
Rainfall Forecast for the 2016/17 Agricultural Season, issue #1

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  • Key Messages
  • Partner
    SADC
    Key Messages
    • The SARCOF is predicting normal to above normal rainfall in the southern parts of the region, while normal to below normal rainfall is expected in the northern areas.

    • The latest model forecasts have reduced La Niña expectations, and suggest near-equal chances for neutral ENSO and weak La Niña conditions through end of 2016.

    • International temperature forecasts suggest normal temperatures are likely in the southern half of the region, and above normal temperature in northern SADC.

    • Although existing regional water deficits are unlikely to be eradicated this season, there is potential for a good agricultural season if farmers have timely access to inputs, climate-smart agriculture is practised, and appropriate support for drought affected farmers is provided.

    • Continual seasonal monitoring, in consultation with national meteorological agencies is required. Special attention is needed for drought affected areas that have a forecast for normal to below normal rainfall.

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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