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Rainfall forecast for 2021/22 season, Issue #2

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Southern Africa
  • January 31, 2022
Rainfall forecast for 2021/22 season, Issue #2

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  • Key Messages
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    Key Messages
    • Below-average rainfall affected many northern, central, and eastern areas of the region during October to December 2021. Although rainfall improved in these areas in early January, uncertainty remains whether there is sufficient time for crops to reach maturity.
    • In many areas, the onset of the rainfall was over 30 days late, delaying planting. Extensive delays in planting reduce area planted and limit the crop-growing window, which could negatively impact 2022 harvest potential.
    • Tropical Storm Ana brought strong winds and heavy rains in late January, resulting in flooding in Madagascar Mozambique, Malawi, and Zambia.
    • Parts of Angola and Madagascar that received poor rainfall during the 2020/21 season also are experiencing low rainfall for the ongoing 2021/22 season. This is delaying the recovery of vegetation, including pastures for livestock. Southern Madagascar is currently experiencing a severe drought that has stretched for several seasons.
    • The rainfall season in the main maize-growing areas of South Africa has started well, with consistently good rains to date.

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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