Seasonal Monitor

Rainfall forecast for 2021/22 season, Issue #3

February 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners. FEWS NET only maps the Eastern half of DRC.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
SADC

Key Messages

  • Rainfall improved significantly in January in many parts of the region, decreasing rainfall deficits; however, rainfall deficits remain.

  • Janary rainfall continued to be low in southern Madagascar, south-western Angola and north-western Namibia, thus worsening conditions in those areas. Crops are unlikely to recover given these rainfall patterns, and livestock are also likely to be severely affected.

  • A dry spell started in central parts of the region including Botswana and Zimbabwe in early February. These dry conditions are forecast to continue into early March, which is expected to result in crops wilting and reduction in production prospects in many areas. Permanent wilting and crop moisture stress have already been noted in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

  • After a quiet start to the cyclone season from November to late January, the region was hit by a series of tropical storms and cyclones, affecting Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The cyclones brought many adverse impacts, but in contrast also provided much-needed rainfall in some areas that had been extremely dry earlier in the season.

  • The rainfall season in the main maize-growing areas of South Africa has started well, with consistently good rains to date.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics