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Rainfall forecast for 2021/22 season, Issue #3

  • Seasonal Monitor
  • Southern Africa
  • February 1, 2022
Rainfall forecast for 2021/22 season, Issue #3

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  • Key Messages
  • Partner
    SADC
    Key Messages
    • Rainfall improved significantly in January in many parts of the region, decreasing rainfall deficits; however, rainfall deficits remain.

    • Janary rainfall continued to be low in southern Madagascar, south-western Angola and north-western Namibia, thus worsening conditions in those areas. Crops are unlikely to recover given these rainfall patterns, and livestock are also likely to be severely affected.

    • A dry spell started in central parts of the region including Botswana and Zimbabwe in early February. These dry conditions are forecast to continue into early March, which is expected to result in crops wilting and reduction in production prospects in many areas. Permanent wilting and crop moisture stress have already been noted in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

    • After a quiet start to the cyclone season from November to late January, the region was hit by a series of tropical storms and cyclones, affecting Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The cyclones brought many adverse impacts, but in contrast also provided much-needed rainfall in some areas that had been extremely dry earlier in the season.

    • The rainfall season in the main maize-growing areas of South Africa has started well, with consistently good rains to date.

    FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.

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