Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in Cabo Delgado as displacements increase

Download Report

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in northern Mozambique as attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) intensify in Cabo Delgado. Between August 25 and September 15, the International Organization for Migration reported the displacement of about 5,800 people, mainly from Mocímboa da Praia (3,300), Muidumbe (2,230), and Montepuez (270). On September 15, an NSAG attack in Balama district targeted infrastructure, disrupted mining and agriculture, and displaced roughly 3,000 people (including women, children, and persons with disabilities). Most displaced households are being hosted in Mavala-Sede Administrative Post, while others are in temporary shelters. Priority needs include food, shelter, health, psychosocial support, and protection.
In several southern and central districts, particularly semi-arid areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist as poor households struggle to recover from the impacts of consecutive droughts over the past two years. Many households have exhausted their food stocks, are struggling to find income-earning opportunities, and are beginning to employ crisis coping strategies. Households located near major trading corridors are increasingly turning to forest exploitation, such as cutting trees for charcoal production. They benefit from their proximity to markets and the ability to sell their products. In comparison, remote households face limited access to markets and alternative income-earning opportunities. As a result, households are experiencing food consumption gaps and are employing coping strategies such as reducing meal sizes and prioritizing feeding children. The situation in these remote areas is compounded by the area’s reliance on a single annual crop production season, limiting recovery prospects.
In August, the National Institute of Statistics reported a year-on-year headline inflation rate increase of 4.8 percent, with food prices rising by approximately 12 percent. Tete had the highest price increase at 8.7 percent, and Maputo had the lowest at 3.7 percent. Monthly inflation has increased from July to August by 0.7 percent, with food prices up by 2.3 percent. Price increases were noted for dried fish, maize grain, garlic, potatoes, dried shrimp, and okra, while some products like butter beans and cooking oil remained stable. Quelimane city (in the eastern part of the central zone) recorded the highest monthly inflation at 3.8 percent, while other cities remained relatively stable. In some remote regions, high food prices are severely straining the purchasing power of poor households. Following poor harvests, many of these households have become atypically dependent on markets for food access much earlier than normal.
From July to August 2025, maize grain prices remained stable in the south, while prices rose by 11 percent in the central zone and 17 percent in the north. In August, maize prices in the south were 42 percent higher than last year and 68 percent above the five-year average. In contrast, prices in the central and northern zones were about 40 percent lower than last year and 20-40 percent below the five-year average due to increased production in the 2024/25 season. Meanwhile, maize meal and rice prices remained stable from July to August. Rice prices are 27 percent higher than last year and 47 percent above the five-year average, while maize meal prices are up 6 percent from last year and 22 percent above the five-year average. High food prices continue to limit access in the south, whereas lower prices in the central and northern regions are improving household food access.
As of August, the Mozambique Food Security Cluster reported that food assistance has reached approximately 201,300 people, with 65 percent affected by conflict and 35 percent by cyclones in Nampula. Additionally, over 20,000 individuals in Cabo Delgado, Tete, and Nampula received support for agriculture and income-generating activities. In conflict-affected areas, the food assistance has covered around 40 percent of beneficiaries' monthly caloric needs, while the General Food Distribution kit for Cyclone Jude met nearly 80 percent of daily caloric requirements for one month. However, humanitarian access has been further restricted by checkpoints along the major routes, delaying responses for over 85,000 people in Macomia and Muidumbe, and requiring the use of armed escorts to ensure delivery. Concerns persist over resource shortfalls due to international funding cuts, as WFP Mozambique faces a critical shortage for emergency responses in the north and risks a potential pipeline break by March 2026.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mozambique Key Message Update September 2025: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in Cabo Delgado as displacements increase, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.