Insufficient humanitarian assistance amid growing needs

Download Report

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the areas severely impacted by El Niño-induced drought during the 2023/24 season, with conditions expected to deteriorate until the next main harvest in April 2025. Most households are increasing their reliance on sales of charcoal and forest products for income. However, income levels are expected to remain below-average given the growing number of people relying on limited income-generating activities and restrictions on transporting charcoal without proper licensing. In conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado Province, sporadic attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAG) continue to cause tension and fear, posing challenges to humanitarian assistance efforts for those in need. Most areas in conflict zones are likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, except for a few areas with sufficient access to humanitarian food assistance resulting in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes.
In July and August, WFP provided humanitarian food assistance to around 415,200 people in conflict-affected areas, reaching approximately 207,000 people in August alone and covering nearly 40 percent of daily kcal needs. Iris Global assisted 12,500 people with meals enriched with vitamins and nutrients; 2,300 people received cash assistance in Niassa through a social protection program, and 7,300 refugees received assistance in Nampula provinces. This assistance reached about 25 percent of the population targeted in the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP), mainly through in-kind support. Furthermore, an additional 14,200 people in Cabo Delgado received agriculture and livelihood interventions by organizations including FAO, ACF, CARE, Helpcode, and UNDP. However, due to security concerns, humanitarian food assistance was suspended in Macomia in August. As of mid-September, resources were available to provide humanitarian food assistance to around 350,000 people affected by the El Niño-induced drought for nearly three months starting in October/November. Additionally, around 105,000 people will receive agricultural inputs, including seeds.
From July to August 2024, maize prices were atypically stable in most markets but remained 20 percent higher than last year's prices and 35 percent higher than the five-year average. Similarly, rice and maize meal prices remained stable from July to August, but both were 25 percent higher than the five-year average. According to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), Mozambique's annual inflation rate fell to 2.75 percent in August 2024, marking the lowest rate since November 2020, which represents the fourth consecutive monthly decrease. However, it's worth noting that the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages have increased by approximately 5.3 percent compared with last year. On a month-to-month basis, inflation decreased by around 0.1 percent in August, following a similar drop in July. According to the INE, declines in the prices of onions, tomatoes, cabbage, dried fish, and maize flour were major drivers of the monthly deflation rate.
According to National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) forecasts, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected for most of the country from October to December 2024, while the northern zone may experience normal to below-normal rainfall during this period. From January to February 2025, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected for a large part of the country, except for localized areas where normal to below-normal rainfall is likely. Overall, a favorable agricultural season is anticipated during the 2024/2025 rainy season, which is likely to allow the poorest households affected by the previous year's drought to begin recovery. However, there is a moderate risk of flooding in various river basins from October to December 2024 and a moderate to high risk from January to March 2025, including flooding in urban/town centers. Localized flooding is also expected in low-lying areas, requiring close monitoring. Due to the expected below-average rainfall in the northern region, delayed and staggered sowing and maximum utilization of lowlands are expected.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mozambique Key Message Update September 2024: Insufficient humanitarian assistance amid growing needs, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.