Key Message Update

Multiple shocks result in an atypically early start of the lean season across the country

September 2019

September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As the result of ongoing humanitarian assistance and above average second season harvest, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist in areas of Sofala and Manica provinces. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) also persist in southern semiarid areas where households faced the second consecutive year of a poor harvest due to drought as well as part of Cabo Delgado where conflict continues, and tropical cyclone Kenneth disrupted the 2019 agriculture season. The rest of the country is in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

  • From July to August, maize grain prices increased rapidly in Tete, Chimoio, Nampula markets by 40 percent on average. These price increases in typical surplus markets in the central and northern regions reflect below average maize grain availability due to below average supply. August maize grain prices in all monitored markets are 39 percent above last year’s prices on average, and 28 percent above the five-year average. As parts of the country are experiencing atypically early lean season conditions rapid maize grain price increases are expected through February 2020.

  • According to the international and national forecasts, the start of the 2019/20 rainy season will most likely be below average with a potential for a late and erratic onset in central and southern areas. Delays in the start of season will likely result in reduced area planted. Cumulative rainfall for the 2019/20 season is most likely to be average to above average in northern Mozambique; however, southern areas will most likely have below average rainfall. Between December 2019 and March 2020, there is an increased likelihood of a near average number of cyclone strikes.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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