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Increased needs expected through March 2017

  • Key Message Update
  • Mozambique
  • September 2016
Increased needs expected through March 2017

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • From October to December, approximately 1.8 million people will need emergency humanitarian assistance based on estimates by FEWS NET. This number is expected to reach approximately 2.3 million people in the first quarter of 2017, which is in line with projections from the Technical Secretariat of Food Security and Nutrition’s (SETSAN) August IPC. Significant below-average 2016 production is limiting household food availability and access, with many poor households already experiencing difficulty meeting their basic food needs in September 2016. 

    • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes are expected to persist in the South and Central areas, especially as staple food prices continue to be extremely high and are only likely to peak in February 2017. From July to August, maize grain prices rose by 12 percent on average and were above the five-year average and last year’s prices by 142 and 189 percent, respectively. August prices for substitutes, maize meal and rice, were, respectively, 86 and 78 percent higher than the five-year average.

    • USAID/Food for Peace has provided funding for emergency food assistance to be delivered from approximately November through March in the drought-affected provinces, which will be carried out by WFP and World Vision. COSACA, a Consortium of NGOs composed of Concern, Oxfam, Save the Children, and CARE, has confirmation of funding from DFID, SIDA, and ECHO to provide food assistance through vouchers in the six affected provinces through March/April 2017. Currently about 102,500 people are receiving the COSACA assistance and beginning in November an additional 127,500 will benefit. USAID/OFDA is also providing support to COSACA, largely focused on seed distribution.

    • While NOAA is no longer forecasting a La Niña, there are still expectations for La Niña-like impacts. From October 2016 to March 2017, forecasts indicate that the majority of the country has a high likelihood of receiving normal to above-normal rainfall, which will be favorable for the 2016/17 agricultural season. Normal to below-normal rainfall is expected in the North in December, but the implications are minor given that the cropping season in this region will not start until mid-December. In March, the southern-most parts of Mozambique are likely to receive normal to below-normal rainfall, but this may fall after the harvest has already begun. 

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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