Humanitarian needs rising amid intensifying attacks in northern Mozambique

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In northern regions, particularly conflict-affected Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through May 2026. In November, the increase in violence by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) in Memba and Eráti districts in Nampula Province led to population displacement, destruction of homes, looting, and civilian casualties. Many households have fled to nearby forests or relocated to other districts due to fear of further attacks, preventing engagement in livelihood activities. Additionally, a cholera outbreak in Memba, coinciding with the onset of the rainy season and the typical lean season, is further worsening acute food insecurity. Food stocks are depleted, and households are facing rising staple food prices, reducing their purchasing power. In Cabo Delgado, where humanitarian assistance reaches at least 20 percent of the population and covers at least 25 percent of monthly kilocalorie needs, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected through March 2026.
In the southern and central semi-arid regions, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist until at least March 2026. This situation is worsened by the onset of the typical lean season from October through March. Staple food prices are above average and continue to rise, diminishing the purchasing power of poor households. Income-earning opportunities are limited, although agricultural labor opportunities may increase with the onset of the seasonal rains, as is typical. Apart from agricultural labor, many families will continue to resort to producing and selling charcoal; however, this strategy is viable only for communities located near large markets. In many remote areas, poor households have few income options other than agricultural labor when available, and are forced to rely on negative coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency, prioritizing feeding children, relying on family support, and increasing consumption of wild foods to survive.
In November 2025, moderate to heavy rainfall marked the start of the 2025/26 rainy and main agricultural season. Most regions received sufficient moisture for newly planted crops, except for parts of Cabo Delgado and Nampula in the north. The updated October-December seasonal climate forecast indicates above-average rainfall for most of the country, except for the south, where below-average precipitation is expected. From January to April, average to above-average rainfall is expected throughout the county. The likelihood of excessive flooding in southern Mozambique is expected to increase with the onset of the tropical cyclone season in November and December amid already elevated surface water levels. Additionally, above-average temperatures are forecasted, particularly in northern Mozambique.
Maize grain prices in southern Mozambique remain a concern, exceeding the five-year average by over 50 percent in October 2025, though relatively stable compared to last year. The price increase is mainly due to below-average market supplies following two consecutive years of poor harvests, limiting poor households’ access to food from markets. In central and northern regions, maize prices were 10-30 percent below the five-year average and 30-40 percent below last year's average, supported by average to above-average harvests, increasing food access for poor households. However, maize grain prices have risen by 6–20 percent between September and October across the country, following the seasonal trends. Moreover, rice prices were 30-70 percent above the five-year average and 10-40 percent above last year in the south and central regions, while remaining stable in the north. Maize meal prices were 5-25 percent above the five-year average, though similar to last year's levels.
As of October, the Mozambique Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners reported that food assistance has reached around 325,000 people, with 92 percent impacted by conflict and 8 percent affected by cyclones in Nampula. Humanitarian food assistance met nearly 40 percent of monthly caloric needs for conflict-affected beneficiaries and up to 80 percent for beneficiaries impacted by Cyclone Jude. In November, WFP is providing emergency assistance to newly displaced people in Nampula, though the number of beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado has decreased from 550,000 to 425,000 due to funding constraints. Assistance is expected to continue in districts such as Macomia, Muidumbe, Nangade, and Quissanga. WFP requires nearly 80 million USD over the next six months (November 2025-April 2026) to support 500,000 people with full rations; without this additional funding, further reductions in assistance are likely.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mozambique Key Message Update November 2025: Humanitarian needs rising amid intensifying attacks in northern Mozambique, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.