Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in shock-affected areas likely to persist through the lean season

In November, most households in rural areas are relying on food stocks and income from agricultural labor and petty trade to access food and income and are likely facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes. Poor households recovering from past shocks are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In drought-affected areas in southern and central Mozambique, cyclone/storm-affected areas in Nampula, and conflict-affected areas in Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist where the 2022 harvest was well below average or failed. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes prevail in areas where humanitarian food assistance is regularly distributed. 

In November, sporadic attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAG) in several districts of Cabo Delgado, including Macomia, Nangade, Namuno, and Chiúre, continued to displace people. According to the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix, from November 2 to November 22, almost 38,000 people were recorded on the move, with around 4,000 people (~10 percent) intending to return to their place of origin. Most people on the move originate from Namuno, Balama, and Macomia districts. Around 80 percent of the reported people on the move live with the host communities. About 85 percent of people reported being on the move due to attacks and fear of attacks. Despite the return of some IDPs, persistent volatility in the security situation, characterized by scattered and sporadic attacks by insurgents, continues to prevent households from resettling or fully engaging in typical income-generating opportunities, keeping them dependent on humanitarian food assistance.

In mid-November, the government officially launched the 2022/2023 agricultural season and anticipates agricultural production to increase by around 5 percent compared to last year, supported by a favorable rainy season forecast and government investments. In the 2021/2022 agricultural season, Mozambique produced 18.3 million tons of food and cash crops. During the agricultural campaign launch, kits with agricultural inputs, including certified seeds, were distributed to around 200 households in the district of Mocímboa da Praia as part of the more than 25,000 small farmers planned to be covered in Cabo Delgado. By the end of November, an effective start of rainfall has been recorded in southern and central Mozambique, and farming households are engaged in land preparation and planting. However, in the northern zone, an effective onset of rainfall is yet to be recorded, with households primarily engaging in land preparation. 

In October 2022, maize grain prices have atypically remained stable or declined in most monitored markets. Prices remained stable in Maputo, Maxixe, Angónia, Mocuba, Caia, and Montepuez and decreased by 8 to 15 percent in Chókwe, Massinga, and Mutarara. The stability of maize grain prices is attributed to traders responding to market demand and increased internal market trade flows from surplus to deficit areas. Maize grain prices in October 2022 had mixed trends compared to their respective prices in 2021 and the five-year average. Overall, maize meal and rice prices remained stable in all monitored markets and had mixed trends compared to their respective prices last year and the five-year average. The rural purchasing power of maize grain, rice, and maize meal is generally stable and average.

According to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the annual inflation rate in October declined to 11.83 percent, declining for the second consecutive month. However, prices of transport, food, and non-alcoholic beverages contribute the most to the annual inflation. In October, the INE began calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) using prices from eight cities across Mozambique compared to three previously. Although inflation is declining, the high prices are impacting purchasing power, particularly for poor households in urban and peri-urban areas where households rely heavily on public transport and food purchases. Households continue to adjust their spending by buying less preferred foods and reducing expenses on non-food needs to cope with the high prices, with those worst affected households likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2).