Slow start of the 2018/19 agriculture season due to erratic and late start of rainfall

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in semiarid areas of Gaza, Inhambane, and Tete provinces. Beginning in December, the worst affected households will likely have little to no food stocks and below-average incomes for market purchases through the lean season. At the peak of the lean season in March 2019, Chemba district in Sofala province will likely start facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes likely in adjacent areas of Sofala, Gaza, Inhambane, and Tete provinces.

Current information indicates slightly over 206,000 beneficiaries received food assistance in November most of whom are the worst affected households in Tete and Gaza provinces. WFP and CHEMO (Humanitarian Consortium comprised by World Vision-Mozambique and Food for the Hungry) continue to provide food assistance as resources are available, helping to mitigate outcomes. Humanitarian food assistance is planned for some areas in Crisis (Phase 3) in Inhambane province, however funds have not been secured for assistance.

Since October, farmers across the south started land preparation and planting activities owing to close to average rainfall, although erratic. Central areas reported normal to heavy rainfall in the last ten days of November and households in these areas have started agriculture activities. However, interior areas of Gaza and Inhambane provinces are still experiencing dry conditions. Rainfall in November is key for the start of the season and a slow start of season could potentially delay the harvest.

Maize grain prices are not increasing as fast as previously anticipated, although prices continue to seasonally increase remaining above last year’s prices in most monitored markets. From September to October, maize grain prices increased in Beira market by 11 percent, while prices in Nampula decreased 21 percent. Since August, in Nampula, maze grain prices decreased and are now below last year and the 5-year average. Prices in this market are volatile as prices depend on the demand of households and regional millers.