Key Message Update

An increasing number of IDPs are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Cabo Delgado

May 2021

May 2021

June - September 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The ongoing harvest is gradually improving food security, with much of the country facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado is continuing to disrupt household livelihoods and has displaced close to 700,000 people, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in affected areas. Of concern are reports of people in inaccessible areas hiding in the bush or fleeing to safer areas and likely facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes during this time

  • The humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado is worsening, particularly in areas that are still inaccessible to humanitarian organizations. In safer areas, the continued arrival of IDPs is increasingly burdening host families and straining the current capacity of the humanitarian response. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), around 58,000 people have been displaced following the attacks in Palma. Currently, WFP has the resources to provide food assistance until July 2021. An anticipated pipeline break in food assistance in August 2021 may reduce rations and food security outcomes without additional resources.

  • As of May 27, 2021, Mozambique has a seven-day rolling average of 21 daily positive COVID-19 cases, with 393,105 people receiving at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose (around 1 percent of the population). Most measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 remain in place and continue to impact income-earning opportunities for most poor urban households negatively, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with the worst affected households likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Border control measures to control the spread of COVID-19, such as proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test, continue to restrict informal cross-border trade and limit labor migrants from entering South Africa. ¬†

  • Although official estimates of agricultural production are currently unavailable, qualitative estimates based on the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) suggest near-average to above-average maize grain production across much of Mozambique. However, maize grain production is likely to be below average in the eastern provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula due to irregular rainfall and pest damage, and parts of the southern region affected by extended dry periods and flooding during the 2020/2021 season. However, according to key informants, the production of maize grain is expected to be above average in the southern interior semi-arid areas due to cumulatively above average rainfall through the season.

  • In April 2021, with the start of the harvest, maize grain prices decreased between 6 and 45 percent compared to March and had mixed trends compared to 2020 prices and the five-year average. Maize meal and rice prices remained stable from March to April 2021 and had mixed trends compared to the five-year average and respective 2020 prices. The price of maize grain is expected to continue to decline seasonally, driven by increased availability in local markets until July, and will then begin to increase gradually. The appreciation of the MZN against the USD may contribute to more stabilization in maize meal and rice prices, with prices unlikely to reduce in the short term.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics