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An increasing number of IDPs are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Cabo Delgado

  • Key Message Update
  • Mozambique
  • May 2021
An increasing number of IDPs are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Cabo Delgado

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • The ongoing harvest is gradually improving food security, with much of the country facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado is continuing to disrupt household livelihoods and has displaced close to 700,000 people, driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in affected areas. Of concern are reports of people in inaccessible areas hiding in the bush or fleeing to safer areas and likely facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes during this time

    • The humanitarian situation in Cabo Delgado is worsening, particularly in areas that are still inaccessible to humanitarian organizations. In safer areas, the continued arrival of IDPs is increasingly burdening host families and straining the current capacity of the humanitarian response. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), around 58,000 people have been displaced following the attacks in Palma. Currently, WFP has the resources to provide food assistance until July 2021. An anticipated pipeline break in food assistance in August 2021 may reduce rations and food security outcomes without additional resources.

    • As of May 27, 2021, Mozambique has a seven-day rolling average of 21 daily positive COVID-19 cases, with 393,105 people receiving at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose (around 1 percent of the population). Most measures to contain the spread of COVID-19 remain in place and continue to impact income-earning opportunities for most poor urban households negatively, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with the worst affected households likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Border control measures to control the spread of COVID-19, such as proof of a recent negative COVID-19 test, continue to restrict informal cross-border trade and limit labor migrants from entering South Africa.  

    • Although official estimates of agricultural production are currently unavailable, qualitative estimates based on the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) suggest near-average to above-average maize grain production across much of Mozambique. However, maize grain production is likely to be below average in the eastern provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula due to irregular rainfall and pest damage, and parts of the southern region affected by extended dry periods and flooding during the 2020/2021 season. However, according to key informants, the production of maize grain is expected to be above average in the southern interior semi-arid areas due to cumulatively above average rainfall through the season.

    • In April 2021, with the start of the harvest, maize grain prices decreased between 6 and 45 percent compared to March and had mixed trends compared to 2020 prices and the five-year average. Maize meal and rice prices remained stable from March to April 2021 and had mixed trends compared to the five-year average and respective 2020 prices. The price of maize grain is expected to continue to decline seasonally, driven by increased availability in local markets until July, and will then begin to increase gradually. The appreciation of the MZN against the USD may contribute to more stabilization in maize meal and rice prices, with prices unlikely to reduce in the short term.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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