Weather shocks and conflict drive acute food insecurity in Mozambique

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Flood- and drought-affected areas of southern and central Mozambique are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes between March and May 2026, driven by reduced household food stocks, below-average income-earning opportunities, and high food prices. While the harvest starting in April-May is expected to provide modest, short-lived improvements in food access, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist, with poor households continuing to rely on consumption-based coping strategies such as reducing meal size and frequency. In conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue due to ongoing insecurity, displacement, and resulting limited engagement in agriculture.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist from June to September 2026 among poor households in conflict-affected areas and in areas impacted by repeated flooding and drought. In the most severely affected districts, continued insecurity, limited access to agricultural inputs, and persistently high food prices will constrain recovery and drive inadequate food access. Many households will most likely remain reliant on markets and face difficulty meeting their basic food needs. In other areas, improved food availability from the main harvest starting in April, combined with vegetable production and sales starting from June, is expected to support Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.
Recovery in flood-affected areas since January has been slower than anticipated. Severe flooding in January 2026 was followed by a prolonged 40-day dry spell with intense heat, with renewed heavy rains in March that triggered localized flooding in southern and central areas. The succession of shocks caused extensive crop and livestock losses across much of the south and parts of the central regions. With limited food stocks and poor prospects for the main harvest, many affected households are increasingly reliant on markets for their food. Income-earning opportunities remain constrained, as crop sales are low and alternative activities, such as charcoal production and sales, generate limited returns due to high competition and reduced production linked to excess humidity in forest areas. Consequently, weak purchasing power, combined with above-average staple food prices, continues to restrict food access. Limited availability of seeds and degraded soil conditions further hinder replanting efforts, delaying recovery.
As the 2025/26 agricultural season concludes, the main harvest is expected to be average compared to the five-year average; however, the harvest quantities will vary at the subnational level. Crop production is most likely to be well below average in the south, mixed in the center, and above average in the north. Successive shocks during the 2025/26 rainy season—including floods, dry spells, and cyclones—have caused widespread crop losses, particularly in the southern region and parts of the central region. Preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Environment and Fisheries (MAAP) indicate that by February, about 449,000 hectares (4.5 percent of the planted area) and over 530,000 animals were affected, impacting around 335,000 smallholder farmers. Maize, rice, beans, and vegetables were the most affected crops, with Gaza (87 percent), Maputo (21 percent), and Sofala (13 percent) provinces recording the highest shares of affected planted area, and additional flooding in March is expected to further increase losses.
Overall, staple food prices in the south remain above average despite recent declines and coupled with below-average household incomes, continue to constrain market access for poor households already affected by floods and dry conditions. In the southern region, maize prices declined by about 13 percent from January to February, following peaks in January driven by severe flooding. Following a similar trend, February prices remained about 26 percent below last year’s level but were still roughly 25 percent above the five-year average. Rice prices were broadly stable in the southern part of the country, month-on-month, yet remain approximately 40 percent above the five-year average, with little change compared to last year. In contrast, in the central and northern regions, maize and rice prices are closer to average levels and remain below those observed last year.
The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is expected to place modest, delayed pressure on food security in Mozambique between March and September 2026. Current conditions remain largely unaffected, supported by stable domestic fuel prices and exchange rates, which are slowing the immediate transmission of global shocks to the consumer. However, if elevated global fuel prices persist, then higher transport and distribution costs are expected to gradually place upward pressure on staple food prices as the year progresses; government analysis suggests local fuel price increases may occur from late April onward. Risks to agricultural production are a concern later in the projection period, as higher global fuel and fertilizer prices would constrain access to agricultural inputs ahead of the next planting cycle, which begins in November. The extent of these impacts will depend on the duration and severity of the conflict and associated global price volatility.
In February 2026, Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners reached about 156,000 people with food assistance — 25 percent of the target — primarily in Cabo Delgado and Nampula. By the end of March 2026, flooding response efforts had supported around 163,000 people, most of them were sheltering in the 100 accommodation centers, with one-month food rations and return kits upon departure. Humanitarian operations remain constrained by damaged infrastructure, insecurity in the north, and limited funding. In the coming weeks, at least 137,000 people are expected to receive agricultural assistance — primarily vegetable seeds for the second season — across Cabo Delgado, Gaza, Sofala, Maputo, and Niassa. However, WFP still requires 98 million USD to sustain operations over the next six months; without additional funding, beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado could drop from 420,000 to 265,000 by March 2026.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mozambique Key Message Update March - September 2026: Weather shocks and conflict drive acute food insecurity in Mozambique, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.