Mozambique
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- In late 2024, FEWS NET projected several districts would face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by March 2025: in southern and central Mozambique (primarily due to 2023/24 El Niño-induced drought), and in Cabo Delgado in the north (primarily due to ongoing conflict). Areas of highest concern were semi-arid areas in central and southern regions (remote areas with limited market access), and the conflict-affected areas in the southeast of Cabo Delgado. In areas less affected by shocks, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes were projected, particularly in surplus-producing areas such as Niassa, western Nampula, Zambézia, northern Tete, and Sofala and Manica provinces. In April/May, the 2025 harvest was expected to drive improvements in food access in much of the country to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, in conflict-affected areas of the north, food security conditions were expected to remain a concern.
- The anticipated seasonal improvement from the 2024/25 agricultural season is expected to be short-lived due to irregular rainfall and above-average temperatures, which negatively impacted crop yields. Additionally, three tropical cyclones affected the northern region (Cyclone Chido in mid-December 2024; Cyclone Dikeledi in mid-January 2025; and Cyclone Jude in early March 2025). Overall, these consecutive shocks resulted in a below-average harvest, human and livestock deaths, and damage to infrastructure. Vegetable production through September is expected to temporarily increase localized access to food in areas suitable for a second growing season. As a result, the population in need is likely to be above average and steadily increase through late 2025, as many poor households in the south are likely to start to rely on markets at least two months earlier than normal.
- Conflict-induced displacement continues in northern Mozambique. According to an assessment by the International Organization for Migration, between February and March 2025, over 609,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) and approximately 701,500 returnees were present across 400 locations countrywide. Cabo Delgado Province accounts for 70 percent of IDPs, with 48 percent residing in host communities and 52 percent in displacement sites. Recently, insurgents backed by the Islamic State have intensified their activities in western Macomia district and are expanding into southern Cabo Delgado, increasing insecurity. Reports indicate that the groups are setting up blockades and demanding ransoms, forcing nearby communities to flee in search of safety and to abandon their farms and typical livelihood activities. The IDPs primarily rely on food assistance, though some also engage in casual or agricultural labor, firewood sales, or small-scale farming to supplement their livelihoods.
- According to Deutsche Welle, countrywide protests erupted from late October to December 2024 over alleged fraud in the October 9 elections, primarily affecting urban areas like Maputo and Matola. The demonstrations led to vandalism, business closures, and disruptions to the supply chain. The Confederation of Economic Associations of Mozambique reported that 40 percent of the industrial infrastructure was damaged, affecting around 500 companies and 12,000 workers. The unrest caused widespread job losses, increasing informal employment, crime, and begging. Over 7,000 people who had fled post-election violence in Morrumbala (Zambézia Province) and Mutarara and Doa (Tete Province) to southern Malawi returned to their places of origin by early March 2025. To support their integration, Mozambique's National Institute for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management mobilized food and non-food assistance. Previously displaced populations have now resumed typical livelihood activities.
- According to the Mozambique Food Security Cluster, as of June, food assistance was delivered to approximately 56,300 conflict-affected and 62,000 cyclone-affected people in Cabo Delgado Province, as well as 165,000 people in drought-affected areas in the south and central regions. The food assistance covered about 40 percent of beneficiaries' monthly kilocalorie needs in conflict-affected areas. The General Food Distribution kit, meant for Cyclone Chido response, adequately supports beneficiaries for a month, covering nearly 80 percent of daily kilocalorie requirements. Agricultural support was provided to 700 conflict-affected beneficiaries, over 41,000 individuals impacted by cyclones, and support for income-generation was provided to around 4,720 individuals affected by conflict/drought. The emergency food assistance is likely to continue through October, but is likely to decrease by approximately 20 percent in Cabo Delgado due to limited resources. Further declines by about 25 percent are likely to begin in November.
- The national agricultural production estimate for the 2024/25 season is still pending official release. However, data from the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) (Figure 1) shows seasonal improvement in the northern and central regions, with minimal change in the south compared to last year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts maize availability for the 2025/26 consumption year at about 1.8 million tons, an increase from 1.4 million tons the previous year, near the five-year average, but 22 percent below the annual requirement; the shortfall is expected to be covered by imports mostly from South Africa and global markets. The shortfall is attributed to adverse weather conditions and pest infestations. The Ministry of Agriculture reports that over 550,000 hectares of crops were damaged, about 10 percent of the total area planted and affecting over 660,000 farmers.
Figure 1
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
- In June, maize prices in Maputo remained above average: 27 and 65 percent higher than last year and the five-year average, respectively, as market stocks remain atypically low. Rice and maize flour prices also increased 55 and 70 percent and 10 and 13 percent, respectively, compared to last year and the five-year average. In Montepuez, Cabo Delgado, maize prices declined 47 percent compared to last year due to increased production; however, prices for processed products like maize meal and rice remain high. In the central region, maize prices are lower than last year and near the five-year average, but maize meal and rice prices are 13 to 25 percent higher than last year and 15 to 35 percent above the five-year average, respectively. The price increases are particularly affecting market-dependent households by reducing their purchasing power.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mozambique Key Message Update July 2025: Seasonal improvements likely short-lived following below-average 2025 harvest, 2025.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.