Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists due to El Niño, conflict, and high food prices

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the southern and central regions, mainly due to the El Niño-induced drought. This has resulted in well below average harvests compared to last year and the five-year average, leading to high competition for limited income opportunities and ultimately resulting in food access deficits for many poor and very poor households. In conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely, while Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected in areas receiving humanitarian assistance.
In June 2024, partners of the Food Security Cluster (FSC) delivered humanitarian food assistance, covering about 40 percent of the monthly kilocalorie requirements for around 270,000 people. This assistance benefited approximately 27 percent of the targeted population as per the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP). Assistance was predominantly cash-based transfers/vouchers (55 percent) and in-kind support (45 percent). However, due to security concerns, humanitarian food assistance remains suspended in Macomia district. According to OCHA, a June 13 UN security assessment in Macomia found significant damage to social infrastructure, including limited health services, persisting school closures, and access challenges due to security conditions. The mission recommended that humanitarian activities resume when/as permitted by security conditions.
From May to June 2024, the price of maize grain fluctuated in different regions across the country. In the southern zone, prices remained stable with a 10 percent reduction in the Massinga market of Inhambane Province. In Mutarara market in the central semi-arid zone, the price increased by around 50 percent due to low supply and the effects of the El Niño-induced drought. In the northern zone, prices increased by an average of 35 percent. Overall, maize grain prices in June 2024 were 40 percent higher or more compared to last year, and 55 percent higher than the five-year average. These above-average prices, coupled with crop production failure and limited income opportunities, are progressively eroding the purchasing power of poor and very poor households, leading to food consumption deficits.
According to the Mozambique National Institute of Statistics’ (INE) June 2024 report, the annual inflation rate remained steady at 3 percent, with the most significant price increases observed in education (10.57 percent) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.15 percent). An analysis by Oxford Economics indicated that Mozambique's headline inflation has declined rapidly since mid-2022, primarily due to easing global and regional food prices. The correction in the international oil price in 2023 and the stability in the de facto Metical (MZN) peg against the USD have also assisted in the moderation of inflation. INE’s report indicates that all collecting centers (cities of Maputo, Beira, Nampula, Quelimane, Tete, Chimoio, Xai-Xai, and Inhambane/Maxixe) saw an increase in the general price level. However, the monthly change from May to June 2024 showed a 0.21 percent price decrease, with notable declines in prices of tomato (16.6 percent) and lettuce (14.3 percent) and increases in prices of butter beans (2.8 percent) and maize grain (8 percent).

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mozambique Key Message Update July 2024: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists due to El Niño, conflict, and high food prices, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.