Key Message Update

Humanitarian food assistance pipeline reductions expected in Cabo Delgado

July 2021

July - September 2021

October 2021 - January 2022

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • According to the IOM, around 24,000 IDPs were on the move between June 30 to July 20, with 59 percent of IDPs displaced at least twice and 66 percent reported living with host communities. Around  31 percent of the IDP movements originated from Palma. The largest arrivals of IDPs were recorded in Montepuez, Mueda, Pemba city, and Nangade. In late June, the IOM surveyed approximately 250 displaced households on Ibo Island, with 57 percent of households reporting not having an income source, 71 percent not having access to land, and 88 percent reporting a lack of food as a main concern. The continued displacement of IDPs is challenging the response capacity of local authorities and humanitarian partners. Due to limited resources, WFP is expected to provide the equivalent of half rations in food and vouchers to beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado for July and August. Overall, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue across conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado.  

  • The seven-day rolling average of daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases has increased from around 30 daily cases on June 1 to 1,685 daily cases by July 29. On July 15, 2021, in response to the rapid rise in daily confirmed cases and deaths, the government extended the 30-day mitigation measures, including a 9 pm-4 am curfew in the greater Maputo area, provincial capitals, and large towns. Additional restrictions expected to impact poor urban household income-earning opportunities include commercial business operating hours of 9 am-4 pm Monday-Saturday, and reduced hours on Sundays and holidays; and limiting restaurant operating hours and take-aways and home delivery services from 6 am to 6 pm. The sale of alcoholic beverages from stalls remains prohibited, along with visiting beaches for leisure purposes. Poor urban households are likely using coping strategies indicative of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3), such as relying on less preferred and less expensive foods, limiting meal portion sizes, and reducing the number of meals eaten in a day to minimize food consumption gaps.  

  • As expected, staple food prices in June have continued to decline or remain stable. Maize grain prices decreased between 6 and 38 percent, except in Quelimane, where maize grain prices increased by 13 percent, driven by local supply and demand dynamics. Compared to last year and the five-year average, maize prices in June had a mixed trend. As typical, rice and maize meal prices were stable or decreased from May and had mixed trends compared to last year and the five-year average driven by local supply and demand dynamics. The recent unrest in South Africa had short-term impacts on the supply chain in markets with strong trade links to South Africa due to slowdowns along the main trade routes. The stricter COVID-19 control measures are likely to constrain poor urban household purchasing power further, increasing the number of urban households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

  • Across Mozambique, households are engaged in the second agricultural season (April-September), which typically relies on residual soil moisture to grow vegetables. However, residual soil moisture is expected to be below average due to cumulatively below-average rainfall since March 2021. The most affected area is the Limpopo basin's lowland areas, where households are dependent on the second season to stabilize food stocks. Other areas with below-average residual soil moisture include the eastern range of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Zambézia provinces; however, the second season is less practiced. Despite the below-average residual moisture, the main harvest and second season vegetables are available for consumption and sale in local markets, helping to stabilize Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across much of the country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics