Key Message Update

COVID-19, drought, and conflict perpetuate Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

July 2020

July - September 2020

(IPC Phase 1) while southern Tete is Stressed. Sofala is mostly Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Southern Mozambique is mostly in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

October 2020 - January 2021

Current food security outcomes in June 2020. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3)  in Cabo Delgado in the north, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in Niassa, Nampula, and Zambezia. Northern Tete are Minimal (IPC Phase 1) while southern Tete is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Sofala is mostly Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Southern Mozambique is mostly in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Second season production in southern and central Mozambique, which is primarily vegetables, is progressing well in lowland areas with adequate residual soil moisture. However, the second-season harvest is expected to be below average due to below-average residual soil moisture following below-average rainfall and the early cessation rains across the southern and central regions during the 2019/20 season. Second season vegetables are currently available for consumption and sale in local markets, helping to stabilize current food security outcomes; however, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist.

  • In June, the World Food Programme (WFP) provided humanitarian food assistance for approximately 193,500 people across Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Sofala, and Manica. Among these beneficiaries, ration sizes were roughly 80 percent for IDPs who are primarily located in Cabo Delgado. All other beneficiaries received roughly 60 percent of their food needs through humanitarian assistance. It is anticipated ongoing assistance is improving food security among beneficiaries; however, it is anticipated that levels of acute food insecurity, in particular in Cabo Delgado and southern Mozambique, exceed the distribution of assistance.

  • The National Directorate of Agri-Livestock Health and Biosafety (DNSAB) issued an alert for a possible outbreak of red grasshoppers and African migratory grasshoppers in Mecanhelas district in Niassa province near the Lake Chirua border region of Mozambique and Malawi. Currently, swarms of African migratory locusts are in Botswana but are likely migrating, with Mozambique at possible risk for invasion. DNSAB communicated that all provincial agricultural offices must be on High Alert and report any sightings to DNSAB so appropriate control measures can be undertaken. Although the summer harvesting season in the northern regions has been completed, the grasshoppers/locusts could pose a threat to any winter crops or livestock grazing areas.

  • As of July 30, 2020, Mozambique has 1,808 confirmed COVID-19 cases with a case-fatality rate of 0.7 percent. Although the Level 3 State of Emergency measures ended on July 29 after being extended three times as permitted by law, the government has urged all citizens to continue observing all Level 3 measures until a government announcement of new measures is issued. A phased reopening of schools by grade level will take place after schools undergo strict compliance of all prevention measures including having running water, soap or disinfectants, and a maximum of 20 students per class. After four months, the State of Emergency Level 3 measures continue to negatively impact income-earning opportunities, livelihood activities, and food access for many poor households, particularly in urban and peri-urban areas. Most have lost access to some income and are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), though worst-affected households are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

  • In June, maize grain prices showed mixed trends compared to May, with maize grain prices increasing by 15-37 percent in Chimoio, Gorongosa, and Mocuba in the central region, but decreasing in Pemba and Chókwe by 40 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Maize grain prices remained stable relative to May in Maputo and Tete, but are still 10-45 percent above the five-year average. Changes in maize grain prices are primarily being driven by the arrival of trucks to either buy or sell maize grain.

     

     

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics