Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely to emerge due to drought in the southern region

January 2020

January 2020

Most of the southern and central regions are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Northern areas of Cabo Delgado and Nampula are in Stressed with some areas in Cabo Delgado in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Nangade and Mocimboa de Praia in Cabo Delgado and Moatize in Tete are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

February - May 2020

Most of the southern and central regions are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Northern areas of Cabo Delgado and Nampula are in Stressed with some areas in Cabo Delgado in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Nangade and Mocimboa de Praia in Cabo Delgado and Moatize in Tete are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist in most southern and central areas as ongoing humanitarian food assistance is preventing worse outcomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in parts of Tete, due to low levels of food assistance, and in conflict affected areas of Cabo Delgado. These outcomes are anticipated to persist through the end of the lean season in March.

  • As most poor households begin accessing food from the main harvest in April, much of the country will improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist in conflict affected parts of Cabo Delgado, where agricultural activities were disrupted and production is expected to be below average. In southern Mozambique, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will begin to emerge in late April as planned humanitarian assistance comes to an end and households face a third consecutive poor season.

  • In some areas affected by last year’s cyclones (Kenneth and Idai), the recovery process may be slower than expected due to severe weather including heavy rains and associated flooding, lightning strikes, hailstorms and strong winds. This may result in prolonged lean season effects in these areas until they manage to harvest from post-flood planting later than usual. As of January 28, nearly 68,000 people have been affected, with the death of 45 people, and the destruction of infrastructures including over 3,000 houses, and damages to bridges, schools, health centers and electric networks. The floods have also submerged cropped areas, particularly in the lowland areas, which may require water recession planting for the second season.

  • In contrast, southern Mozambique and southern parts of Tete, Manica, and Sofala provinces are facing drought combined with abnormally high temperatures. Insufficient and erratic rainfall resulted in multiple rounds of planting by households due to successive crop loss. The latest planted crops are still between germination and emergence stages and are unlikely to reach maturity even with improved rainfall. Production is expected to be well below average in southern areas for the third consecutive season, with some areas facing total crop loss.

  • Poor households are heavily relying on market purchases for food, however abnormally high maize grain prices are lowering their purchasing power. Prices of maize grain increased seasonally by 5 to 30 percent from November to December; however, overall prices remain well above average due to below average market supply. Maize grain prices are approximately 65 to 120 percent above their respective 2018 levels and 40 to 95 percent above the five-year average.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics