Heavy rains in the north and dryness in the south may worsen post-harvest outcomes

Significantly below-average rainfall in the south, particularly in Gaza Province, and parts of central Mozambique has continued, which has already led to crop failure in some southern areas. However, this has not affected current food availability and access due to last year’s above-average harvest and relatively low staple food prices. Overall, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes persist countrywide, except for Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in parts of northwestern Sofala Province and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in other parts of Sofala, Tete, and Manica provinces.

A mid-January FEWS NET assessment to parts of Gaza Province, which had received less than 55 percent of normal rainfall since October 2017, confirmed the effects of the ongoing water stress. In Guijá District and parts of other neighboring districts, the first cropping season failed, and poor households were preparing for the second season but finding it challenging to afford and acquire needed seeds. While the updated forecast indicates normal to below-normal rainfall in much of the south, the current dryness continues to negatively affect cropping conditions. 

The tropical depression that hit northern Nampula Province on January 17, affected more than 80,000 people in Nampula, Cabo Delgado, and Niassa, causing at least 14 deaths and infrastructure and crop damages. During the next 15 days, emergency food assistance is required for nearly 37,000 people, including those in temporary accommodation centers, and sanitation and clean water are urgently needed. The provision of seeds for post-flood planting is also crucial, given the possibility for recovery as the season in the north can extend until May, with harvesting in June. 

Staple food prices, particularly of maize grain, have been atypical as they have not seasonally increased. Maize grain prices have generally remained consistently stable since July/August and are on average well below last year’s prices by 61 percent and below the five-year average by 28 percent. Given the prospects of a poor harvest from the current cropping season in the south, maize grain prices in southern markets may increase through March.