Food assistance needs likely to increase during upcoming lean season

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in areas of southern and central Mozambique due to below-average harvests following the negative impacts of El Niño-induced drought and Tropical Storm Filipo during the 2023/2024 agricultural and rainy season. In these areas, poor and very poor households’ food stocks have been exhausted much earlier than usual, and access to income sources is below average due to increased competition for labor opportunities. In conflict-affected parts of Cabo Delgado province, efforts to restore peace, return displaced people, and improve access for government and humanitarian organizations have improved food security outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in some areas. However, in areas where instability persists, households are unable to produce their own food, and irregular humanitarian assistance is expected to result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
In July 2024, Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners provided humanitarian general food assistance covering approximately 40 percent of the monthly kilocalorie requirements for around 343,000 people. This assistance reached about 38 percent of the population targeted in the 2024 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP). The assistance mainly consisted of in-kind support (70 percent) and cash/vouchers (30 percent). In addition, nearly 194,000 people in Cabo Delgado received agriculture and livelihood interventions, including provision of seeds and tools, livestock support, and income-generating activities. However, due to security concerns, humanitarian food assistance remains suspended in the Macomia district. Ongoing humanitarian food assistance efforts are primarily concentrated in the northern region, where conflict has led to food shortages.
The Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) in Mozambique, in coordination with the government of Mozambique, has launched the Mozambique Drought Flash Appeal to mobilize around 222 million USD. This initiative, running from August 2024 to July 2025, aims to provide a multisectoral and integrated response to the drought crisis and address people’s most urgent humanitarian needs. The appeal identifies 1.8 million people in need, with 1.4 million people targeted for humanitarian assistance in the most severely drought-affected districts. The Flash Appeal complements the government’s efforts to assist those affected by El Niño-induced drought. It includes activities carried out by humanitarian partners under the 2024 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) and prioritizes the most vulnerable people in the 37 worst-affected districts from October 2024 to March 2025.
In July 2024, maize grain prices were 25 percent higher compared to last year and around 40 percent higher than the five-year average. Rice and maize meal prices remained nearly 10 percent and 20 percent higher than last year and 20 percent and 13 percent above the five-year average, respectively. According to data from the National Institute of Statistics, the year-on-year inflation rate was around 3 percent in July 2024, with food prices alone rising by around 6 percent. On a monthly basis, prices were generally stable in July 2024, with the price of most vegetables decreasing by 7 to 10 percent. However, maize and fresh fish countered the downward trend, increasing by 16 and 3 percent, respectively.
NOAA forecasts a higher likelihood of the La Niña phenomenon (66 percent) occurring from September 2024, potentially lasting through early 2025. During La Niña years, the main rainy season between October and March is expected to start on time, with normal to above-normal rainfall in the southern and central regions. In contrast, the northern region can expect normal to below-normal rainfall and a delayed start to the rainy season. The emerging La Niña and expected normal to above-normal rainfall could offer relief by improving crop production and creating job opportunities in areas affected by El Niño-induced drought in the 2023/2024 season. However, the positive impacts of La Niña will only materialize in April 2025 with the start of the main harvest. It will be essential to monitor rainfall patterns closely for the upcoming season, particularly given the risk of flooding in low-lying areas near rivers.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mozambique Key Message Update August 2024: Food assistance needs likely to increase during upcoming lean season, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.