Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to persist in conflict and weather-shocked areas

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In April, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes were prevalent in parts of the southern and central zones, particularly in the semi-arid areas, where the 2024 main season harvest had a slow start due to multiple shocks that affected the agricultural season. These shocks included Tropical Storm Filipo, El Niño-induced drought in the southern and central areas, and more recently, heavy rains and floods in the southern region. Less-affected areas faced Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. The worst-affected households, which lost their homes, food reserves, field crops, and access to their typical livelihoods and income sources, require emergency humanitarian assistance to meet their minimum food needs and to recover. In areas affected by the conflict in Cabo Delgado Province, the persistent presence of Non-State Armed Groups (NSAG) and sporadic attacks are leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Households are unable to concentrate on subsistence activities as they are constantly forced to seek safer areas with no-to-limited sources of income.
According to the latest official data from the government of Mozambique, the current rain and cyclonic season that began in October 2023 has caused extreme weather events that have affected around 230,000 people, resulting in 115 deaths and around 200 injuries. The impact on infrastructure has been significant, with over 42,000 homes, 500 schools, and 89 health centers affected. Agriculture has also been severely affected, with around 690,000 hectares (approximately 15 percent of the total planted area) of diverse crops damaged by various factors including El Niño-induced drought, excessive rainfall and floods (some associated with Tropical Storm Filipo), and pests/diseases. These events affected mostly the southern and central regions. The drought alone affected approximately 13 percent of the total planted area, while the remaining 2 percent was affected by a combination of floods, diseases, and pests, such as fall armyworm, peanut worm, and elegant grasshopper.
There is an urgent need for seeds as the secondary agricultural season starts, especially among poor and very poor households who were left without resources due to the impacts of climatic shocks during the rainy season. The seeds needed are mostly for vegetables, beans, sweet potatoes, and short-cycle cereals. The production of the second season, although mainly comprised of vegetables that are for immediate consumption, could help to stabilize levels of food insecurity until September. The significant rainfall in March and early April in the southern zone provided considerable residual moisture needed for the post-flood period and the second agricultural season. From a humanitarian perspective, emergency food assistance is crucial to prevent the deterioration of the population's nutritional status. In March, FSC partners assisted around 288,000 people with humanitarian food assistance, reaching 32 percent of targeted people. However, as of March, only 12 percent of the minimum resources needed for the humanitarian response had been secured by FSC partners.
From February to March 2024, the average prices of maize grain dropped by around 8 percent, partly reflecting the beginning of harvests, with the largest drop of 25 percent in Mocuba. However, in most markets, the prices remained stable due to the slow start of harvests. Maize grain prices in March 2024 were mixed compared to last year, and were 6 to 37 percent higher than the five-year average. The above-average prices reflect the cumulative effect of the negative impacts from multiple shocks that have affected the country in the last five years. Both rice and maize meal prices stayed relatively stable from February to March 2024. In March, the prices were above average and at levels similar to last year. The annual inflation rate in Mozambique decreased for the fifth straight month to 3 percent in March 2024, the lowest since September 2020. According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), the divisions of education, restaurants, hotels, cafés, food, and non-alcoholic beverages had the highest price increases ranging from 5 to 10 percent. On a monthly basis, the CPI was flat, rising by less than 0.1 percent, compared to a 0.5 percent increase recorded in February. The prices of onions, restaurant meals, fresh fish, and rice were the biggest positive contributors to the monthly inflation rate.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Mozambique Key Message Update April 2024: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to persist in conflict and weather-shocked areas, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.