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El Niño-related drought drives atypically high needs in 2016/17

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Mozambique
  • June 2016 - January 2017
El Niño-related drought drives atypically high needs in 2016/17

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  • Key Messages
  • NATIONAL OVERVIEW
  • Key Messages
    • In the El Niño drought-affected areas in the South and parts of the central region, poor households are currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity as they face significant difficulty meeting their basic food needs. However, much of the rest of the population are able to meet their basic food needs due to the ongoing harvest in other areas of the central region and the North. The majority of households remain in None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. 

    • Currently maize grain prices are 125 percent above the five-year average. They seasonally decreased with the start of the harvest, but are expected to rise from June 2016 to January 2017. The demand for substitute commodities, such as maize meal and rice, will also lead to price hikes. These prices will further limit purchasing power as households face limited earning opportunities. 

    • Due to the significantly below-average harvest, the lean season will begin in August, about two months earlier than normal. Food stocks will continue to fall as second season crop production yields will be lower. In October, agricultural labor opportunities will increase with the start of the rainy season, which is expected to be average to above-average due to an anticipated La Niña. However, this could lead to moderate to severe flooding in January 2017. 

    • In the most affected areas, from October to January 2017, poor households will expand their livelihood and coping strategies to meet their food needs. They are expected to intensify self-employment opportunities, consume wild foods, and will still require emergency food assistance because of their food consumption gaps. The poor and very poor will continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes in January 2017, with needs likely to increase until the harvest in March 2017.


    NATIONAL OVERVIEW

    Current Situation

    • The 2015/16 El Niño drought in Mozambique will continue affecting people’s livelihoods until the next harvest in March 2017. The drought in the southern region has caused massive crop loss particularly in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza, and the interior of Inhambane. In the central region, poor crop production and crop losses have also occurred in the provinces of Sofala, Manica, Tete, and southern parts of Zambézia. The dryness has caused shortage of water, pasture, and low food supply. In the north of the country, above-normal rainfall resulted in localized flooding from January to March, but overall the situation was well managed by local disaster management authorities and currently no major concerns exist in the region. Also, crop production in the North was favorable with near-average to above average estimated production.

    Production

    • According to a Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MASA) report published in May, preliminary total cereal production estimates for maize, rice, sorghum, millet, and wheat is 2.39 million MT, of which 1.79 million MT is maize grain, 333,000 MT is rice, 240,000 MT is sorghum, 34,000 MT is millet, and 17,000 MT is wheat. The total estimated production of cereals represents 84 percent of the initially planned volume while for maize grain it represents 85 percent of the initially planned volume. However, based on estimates from the satellite-derived Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) extended to the end of the season, maize grain production from the current season is expected to be close to average in the northern region, 10 to 20 percent below the average in the central region, and nearly 35 percent below the average in the southern region of the country. El Niño-related drought remains as the major cause for the reduced crop production in the south and central regions.
    • While the harvest is still ongoing, mostly in the North and parts of the central region, and newly harvested crops are slowly becoming available at the household-level and local markets, second season activities are ongoing in lowland areas in the central and southern regions where residual moisture is available. While there were some heavy rains in early April in parts of the central and northern regions and moderate to weak rains in parts of the South, there has not been any significant rainfall from mid-April until mid-June. This has further hindered second season crop production of legumes and horticulture crops, such as lettuce, cabbage, tomatoes, onions, cucumbers, and carrots. However, any food production from this season, will temporarily mitigate the food deficits of the households who experienced crop failure in the South and poor crop production in the central region.

    Food Stocks

    • Current food reserves at the household level are much lower when compared to average. In much of the South, the poorest households have completely exhausted their food reserves while most did not even harvest at all. The majority of households in drought-affected areas continue to rely on market purchases. The level of supply in local markets is relatively below the average for this time of the year, particularly for staple foods from households’ farming, such as maize grain, cowpeas and beans. Other staple foods that are usually imported or processed, such as maize meal and rice, are adequately available. In the central region, while food availability is relatively better as compared to the southern region, it is also below the average and some poor households are already relying on markets to access their food. In the North, food availability at both the household and market levels is adequate.

    Prices

    • The average staple food price from all monitored markets shows that May maize grain prices were currently 125 percent above the five-year average and 118 percent above prices from last year (see Figure 4). From April to May, across the country, maize grain prices have decreased on average by 17 percent due to the harvest. However, a regional analysis reveals that in the southern region maize grain prices were mixed, with marginal variations of less than five percent, which generally reflects stable prices. In the central and northern regions, maize grain prices have continued to trend downward as a result of the increasing availability of food from the ongoing harvest. With the low availability of maize grain, the majority of households are turning to maize meal as a substitute, resulting in atypical maize meal price increases. Rice prices have remained stable in most markets except in Chokwe, Gorongosa, and Tete, where rice prices from April to May have increased by 33, 33, and 12 percent, respectively. Maize meal and rice prices remain above the five-year average by 84 and 45 percent, respectively.

    Income Sources

    • With the market continuing to be the major source of food for the majority of households in the southern and central regions, in order to obtain cash, poor households continue to do whatever is possible to earn income to allow them to make purchases. These households are occasionally selling chickens or other small animals in their possession, which is atypical for this time of the year. Apart from the sale of poultry, households manage to get cash through the sale of casual labor, which includes construction activities, fetching water and self-employment activities, including the collection and sale of natural products, such as grass, the cutting and sale of building poles, cane/reeds; the production and sale of charcoal; the gathering and sale of firewood; brewing; thatching; and handcrafting. However, some of the products, such as grass and reeds, are also affected by the drought, which has led to reduced availability and quality of these products for collection and sale. The production of traditional drinks is also affected by a lack of availability of the small grains required in the process. Also, with more and more people engaged in self-employment activities, opportunities to sell are reduced, limiting incomes.
    • Some members of poor households, particularly men from the southern region, are migrating to South Africa in search of job opportunities, often illegally. Due to difficulties in finding stable work in South Africa, most of these migrants are unable to send remittances to their relatives. Most end up working in poor conditions as street vendors, while others are frequently deported back to Mozambique by the South African authorities. Internally, entire households or household members are migrating from one place to another in search of places with better food security conditions. An unspecified number of people, particularly young people, are moving to areas with mining opportunities, particularly in Tete, Manica, and Zambézia provinces, so they can do subsistence or artisanal mining. Many households, who are unable to engage in these coping mechanisms due to limited availability of laborers, are relying more heavily on the consumption of wild foods. However, the ongoing drought, which has continued for a second consecutive year in many of these areas, has also reduced the availability of typical wild foods.

    Conflict

    • Due to the ongoing political-military conflict, an unspecified number of people in central areas of the country have been displaced as they are trying to flee the conflict and find more secure areas. According to UNHCR, up to 12,000 Mozambicans have been registered as asylum seekers in Malawi. The movement of people and goods is constrained, which is particularly affecting the flow of surplus food from the North to the deficit areas.

    Humanitarian Assistance

    • Humanitarian assistance for those most affected by the drought is still well below the needs. Combined efforts by the GoM humanitarian partners, including the World Food Program (WFP), the COSACA Consortium of NGOs composed of Concern, Oxfam, Save the Children, and CARE; World Vision International (WVI), the German Agrarian Action (AAA), and the Joint Aid Management (JAM) in May covered less than 20 percent of the needs.

    Assumptions

    National Assumptions

    The Food Security Outlook for June 2016 to January 2017 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

    Hydrology

    • Hydrometric levels below average in major basins in south and center. The river levels are currently below the levels indicated in the February Outlook report and are well below the average. While updated information is not yet available, it is expected that all rivers in the South will have significantly reduced levels as compared to average due to the drought. Similarly, the flow water volumes will be reduced and well below the average. However, beginning in November through January 2017, the expected above-average rainfall will likely begin to replenish these basins.
    • Surface water shortages. The Regional Administration of Water for Southern Mozambique recently concluded its first pilot survey of available surface water resources within Maputo Province and concluded that the districts of Moamba and Magude are critically short of water. Hydrogeological surveys of other drought-impacted provinces are incomplete or lacking and needed. According to the National Director of Water Supply and Sanitation, river levels and water flow in southern Mozambique remain low and did not benefit from recent rains. While the rains have improved pasture conditions for cattle, two of the three hydroelectric dams in southern Mozambique, Massingir and Corruma dams, remain closed due to lack of water while the third, Pequenos Libombos dam, has sufficient water for at least three additional months. Due to the critical lack of water in Massingir dam, water use for agricultural irrigation has also been suspended. However, beginning in November through January 2017, the expected above-average rainfall will likely begin to improve surface water conditions.

    La Niña Impact 

    • Global forecast calls for above-normal rainfall during La Niña. Early June CPC/IRI forecasts indicate that there is a 75 percent chance that a La Niña event is likely to develop by late 2016. In the southern Africa region a La Niña event tends to be associated with above-average rainfall, particularly from December onwards (see Figures 5a and 5b). However, ENSO and sea surface temperatures are not the only factor affecting southern Africa rainfall. The Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) influences ENSO’s impact on rainfall in southern Africa. A positive SIOD would enhance La Niña’s influence on rainfall in Mozambique, while a negative SIOD would mitigate the influence. Therefore, the state and impact of SIOD on 2016/17 rainfall will only be estimable with more confidence later in the year, but a normal start of season is expected. However, La Niña is historically linked to normal to above-normal rainfall in southern and central Mozambique and moderate temperatures as opposed to abnormally higher temperatures linked to El Niño.
    • Historical evidence for south and central areas of potential flooding. According to the database by the Dartmouth Flood Observatory on the relationship between La Niña and flooding in Mozambique, based on ENSO events from 1990 to date, there is a correlation between La Niña events and the occurrence of floods. In ten La Niña events or negative Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) greater than 0.5 (absolute value), seven were characterized by moderate to severe flooding. All floods were observed between January and March. As a result of this evidence and La Niña forecast, there are increased chances for the occurrence of floods in some river basins in the south and central regions (including Incomati, Limpopo, Inhanombe, Save, Pungoe, Buzi, Zambezi and Licungo) from January to March 2017. However, other factors such as the SIOD can disrupt the La Niña expected effects either by enhancing or reducing the typically expected impacts.
    • Possible flooding outcomes. From January to March 2017, moderate to severe flooding may disrupt the typical livelihoods of households living in the flood prone areas. In an event of floods, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure may be partially or totally impassable and/or destroyed. Flood water will endanger human and animal life and some displaced households will require emergency evacuation to secure places. Displaced households, particularly the poor and very poor, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes and may need urgent humanitarian assistance, including shelter, food aid, health and sanitation care, because of the anticipated impact of floods on infrastructure, market access, and food prices. However, the effects are expected to be localized, and the number of affected households is expected to be relatively low due to the previous resettlement of at-risk populations.

    Markets and Trade

    • Regional maize deficit in 2016/17 marketing year. A larger than normal maize deficit is expected during the 2016/17 marketing season due to the poor harvests. Mozambique normally imports maize grain from South Africa, which is on average about 110,000 MT for milling and shoring up supplies in the southern region. These imports account for only about five percent of the needs.  
    • Similar, low cross-border trade with Zimbabwe, but drop expected with Malawi. Cross border trade with Zimbabwe is not expected to have any significant change given the weak exchange of staple foods between the two countries. The main traded commodities between the two countries are mostly manufactured items, such as batteries, bicycles, radios, clothes, shoes, soap; and processed foods, such as cooking oil, maize meal, but trade is essentially concentrated near the border villages. On the other hand, the typically significant trade with Malawi, particularly for maize, will have reduced volumes due to competing demand for the maize from the northern region of the country. The direction of the flow will be determined by the price differences between the different areas and/or any government policy to encourage the flow of maize grain from north to south.
    • Internal flow of commodities/North surplus flows. Within the northern region, the flow of staple foods is taking place as normal given the near-average crop production. In the southern and central regions, the flow of food commodities is relatively slower this year as compared with average. This results from the below-average availability and the change of traditional major sources of food. This year, the northern region has become the major source, but the number of traders willing to risk and be involved in transporting maize grain to the southern region is limited due to higher transaction costs and now the insecurity along the major routes. While there is some flow from north to center, there is practically no flow from north to south. This will basically be the pattern throughout the entire consumption period unless some measures from the GoM are put in place to encourage this flow. For the crops that are traditionally originating from the northern region, such as common beans and groundnuts, the flow will remain closer to average, except due to constraints by the conflict in localized areas along the routes.
    • Carry-over stocks from 2015 likely to be negligible, below average and lower than previous year’s of 252,000 MT. Last year’s harvest was below average in most areas of the country, and the national total production was below average by 25 percent, which affected the carry-over stocks to the current year. Maize supply for the 2016/17 marketing year is expected to be 30 percent below average, with the most affected areas in the central and southern region.  
    • Maize grain prices will remain above average. With a deficit of around 300,000 MT in the 2015/16 marketing season, prices of maize doubled. Since the deficit will be larger than last year’s and capacity to increase imports is limited due to some macroeconomic challenges, prices of maize are expected to be sustained at well above average levels and last year’s, rising more rapidly than usual during the lean season, especially in the southern region. Due to the poor harvest from the central and southern regions, the demand from households will be relatively higher than average during the scenario period as most households were affected by the long dryness. If the GoM diverts informal maize exports from the northern region to the southern region, instead of to southern Malawi, pressure on maize prices may ease between June and September, which marks the peak of informal maize trade. However, from June 2016 to January 2017, maize grain prices are expected to continue to rise and be up 140 percent above the five-year average and above last year’s prices by 110 percent on average. Prices are expected to peak in February and March 2017.
    • Maize meal prices expected to remain high. Maize meal prices will remain generally stable from now to August but will start increasing in September, remaining above average until January. Even with the availability of newly harvested crops from the main 2015/16 harvest, prices will not seasonally decrease. On average, from June 2016 to January 2017, maize meal prices will be 103 percent higher than the five-year average and 92 percent higher than the prices from last year.
    • Rice prices will rise as it is an alternative to maize. Rice prices will remain stable from now until August due to the availability of newly harvested crops from the main 2015/16 harvest. However, given the reduced volumes of maize grain to be harvested, many households will turn to rice as an alternative. As a result, this will cause an atypical rise in demand for rice, pushing prices higher in August, and they will remain elevated but stable, with marginal increases of less than 10 percent throughout the remaining period from September 2016 to January 2017. Overall, from June to January, rice prices will be 14 percent higher than the five-year average and 13 percent higher than the prices from last year.
    • Rangeland resources depleted. Rangeland resources are at below-average levels due to the drought and are expected to remain depleted through the end of September and trekking distances will increase. However, with the beginning of the rainy season in November, rangeland resources are likely to regenerate and remain favorable through the end of the scenario period. 

    Livestock Body Conditions, Prices, and Movement

    • Though currently livestock body conditions have slightly improved due to better pasture and water conditions, during the scenario period, these conditions will worsen. From August to September the livestock herd body conditions may deteriorate again due to reduced or unavailable pasture and water. This adversity will force some households to oversell their animals to avoid deaths, which would reduce the herd size.
    • Throughout the scenario period, the prices of livestock are expected to be below average by 20 to 30 percent due to poor body conditions and increased supply.
    • To avoid animal deaths, some households, beginning in July, will start moving their livestock longer distances in search of pasture and water and will remain further from their homesteads through January 2017.

    2015/16 Crop Production Estimates

    • Harvest prospects for 2015/16 below average. Based on estimates from the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) extended to July, maize grain production from the current season is expected to be close to average in the northern region, 10 to 20 percent below the average in the central region, and nearly 35 percent below the average in southern Mozambique. The El Niño-related drought is the primary cause for the reduced crop production in the south and central regions.
    • April-September second season production poor. The second season contributes to approximately 10 to 30 percent of the annual total production of Mozambique, the degree varying by region. Generally in the South, it can reach up to 30 percent of the annual total production, while in the central region it ranges from 10 to 20 percent. Since the 2015/16 main rainy season was characterized by below-average rainfall, prospects for the second season are poor. The level of production is expected to range from 25 to 45 percent of the five-year average.

    Agricultural Labor Demand and Wages

    • Below-average agricultural labor opportunities in south and central regions. From June to August, agricultural labor activities are typically at their lowest levels as most agriculture-related activities are restricted to second season production only, which is limited to particular areas where growing conditions exist. This year, these activities will be even lower than the typical level due to the reduced residual moisture from the main rainfall season. However, from September 2016 to January 2017, with the prospect of La Niña, which is typically related to normal to above-normal rainfall, agricultural labor opportunities are expected to be close to normal, provided households have sufficient seeds for the season. However, given the low income earned by the wealthiest households during the 2015/16 harvest, wages are expected to be 25 percent lower than average, though the wealthiest households will promise to pay the full amount of the wages after the harvest. In the North, the level of the agricultural labor will remain close to the five-year average.

    Self-employment opportunities and income

    • With an increasing number of people engaging in self-employment activities to supplement their incomes, opportunities to sell services and/or goods and earn income will be reduced. Typical self-employment activities include handcrafts where some household members will be engaged in the production of mats, sieves, baskets, wooden spoons; and the brewing of traditional drinks, such as the locally known kabanga, a beer-type drink, which will also be reduced due to the low availability of small grains needed for its production. Other traditional drinks, such as utchema and aguardente, a brandy-type drink, will contribute to people’s income, but it is usually practiced by a small number of households.
    • The production of bricks will be negatively affected by the lack of water and low demand by households, who previously would have been in a financial position to purchase these bricks.
    • Poor and very poor households cut and sell grass poles for construction, but these activities will be limited because of the dryness and lower demand.
    • All wealth groups will produce and sell charcoal, a practice which has been expanded in recent years. In some communities in the semi-arid zones of Gaza Province, the production and sale of charcoal is becoming the major self-employment activity. Nevertheless, the lack of control over increasing charcoal production poses a serious risk of desertification.
    • Non-coastal water fishing is also expected to be reduced due to the dryness.

    Nutrition

    • The national prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) in Mozambique is less than ten percent; however, geographical disparities exist with recent assessments indicating higher levels of acute malnutrition in drought-affected provinces in the south and central areas. Though not statistically representative and a low confidence level in the data exists, a March 2016 rapid Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) assessment identified more than 15 percent of assessed children as acutely malnourished (MUAC<12.5 cm) in both Sofala and Tete provinces, while less than 10 percent of children were acutely malnourished in other provinces (Gaza, Manica, and Maputo). The high level of acute malnutrition is linked to inadequate diet and poor dietary diversity. It is anticipated that the national levels of acute malnutrition will remain below 10 percent during the scenario period (June 2016 to January 2017) because of the increased access to food following the harvest until July, before the start of the lean season in August. However, in the drought-affected areas, levels of acute malnutrition will likely be above 10 percent because of the reduced access to quantity and diversified food, which coincides with the poor harvests and an anticipated continued rise in food prices.

    Emergency Humanitarian Assistance

    • According to WFP, the current available resources will allow WFP to assist 261,000 people from June only through September with direct food distribution and its food assistance for assets program. COSACA will be providing assistance for 125,000 people through voucher for food programs in Gaza and Inhambane provinces. Both organizations are in the process of mobilizing additional funding to increase the number of beneficiaries and the coverage areas. The GoM has been providing food assistance according to availability of funding and by prioritization of areas with the highest severity of needs.
    • The Food Security Cluster (FSC) from the Humanitarian Country Team (HCT) is preparing a coordinated international appeal within the regional initiative (SADC). However, to date, the planned and funded humanitarian assistance through January 2017 covers less than 20 percent of the needs.

    Food Availability/Access

    • Throughout the scenario period, food availability at the household level will be well below average due to the poor harvest and/or total crop failure during the 2015/16 main agricultural season.
    • Food access by households will be constrained by the abnormally high food prices and will reduce food supply in the south and central region markets throughout the scenario period.

    Migration of population due to political tensions

    • In localized areas in the central region, specifically in parts of Sofala, Manica, Tete, and Zambézia provinces, an unspecified number of people are expected to continue to migrate to more secure areas due to the ongoing political tensions. This trend is expected to continue through January 2017 unless mitigating measures are taken by both conflicting sides. The numbers of internally displaced people and refugees is expected to rise as the conflict keeps spreading to more areas.

    Political-military tensions impact on food security

    • The conflict in localized areas in the central region will exacerbate the level of acute food insecurity. In affected areas, the people are focused on their own security rather than concentrating and fully investing in livelihood-related activities to help sustain a normal life. An unspecified number of people have abandoned their villages in search of more secure areas, which has forced them to adjust or abandon their traditional livelihood activities. Also, the conflict along the major roads is constraining the normal flow of commodities and people, including the flow of food from the surplus areas in the North to the deficit areas in the central and southern regions.

    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    From June to September, throughout the country, the majority of households will be able to satisfy their basic food needs by consuming food from the recently harvested crops from the main 2015/16 season complemented by food purchases from the markets. These households will face None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes. However, in the drought-affected areas of the South and parts of the central region, poor and very poor households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or will move into this phase later in August and September and are facing food consumption gaps that require immediate humanitarian assistance. Other households are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes and require humanitarian assistance to protect their livelihoods. In a typical year, staple prices are seasonally low during the months of June and July, during which time most households consume food from their own production. However, this year, most households in the South and parts of the central region will experience below-average food reserves due to poor harvests or total crop failure. Staple food prices, such as that for maize grain, will remain above average during the post-harvest period and will start rising in July and August, two to three months earlier than usual. In August and September, the harvest from second season production typically becomes available. However, it is expected that due to this year’s El Niño-related dryness, conditions for second season crop production will be poor, with very limited harvests. Competition for labor opportunities, both agriculture-related and self-employment, is expected to increase during this period, and poor and very poor households will have limited access to income for market purchases. The lean season is expected to start earlier than usual in August, when it typically begins in October or November.

    From October to January 2017, the country will continue experiencing the typical effects of the lean season when most households will have exhausted their own produced food stocks, local food supplies are low, and prices for commodities are high. During this period, households will start expanding their livelihood and coping strategies to meet their food needs. Some of the strategies that poor households will start employing during this period include reducing expenditures on non-food items in order to be able to purchase staple foods. Also they will intensify brewing activities, sell traditional drinks for income, cut and sell poles; sell natural products, such as firewood and charcoal; and seek casual farm labor preparing the land and planting. Agricultural labor opportunities are expected to increase as the next agricultural season approaches and are expected to be close to average given the normal to above-normal La Niña-influenced rainfall forecast. Also, the onset of the November rains will provide a variety of wild and seasonal foods that will gradually improve food consumption among poor households until the green food becomes available in February and March 2017. Seasonal fruits, including mangoes and cashew-nuts, will be available in January. In the areas affected by drought and dry conditions during the previous season, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue as poor and very poor households will still be facing food consumption gaps even as they will be expanding their livelihood and coping strategies to help cover these gaps. FEWS NET recently ran Household Economy Approach (HEA) Outcome Analysis, and this corroborates these expectations. For many poor households the seasonal wild foods will be their only major source of food. It is possible there could also be smaller, worst-affected populations, who will experience larger gaps in their basic food needs and who will be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). In addition, the possible occurrence of moderate to severe flooding in late January may disrupt the livelihoods of the affected households. Based on estimates from previous severe floods, more than 200,000 people, particularly the poor and very poor households, could temporarily face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes if floods devastate homes and markets. Outside the flooded areas, green foods and early harvested crops, combined with seasonal wild foods, will support food availability. In non-affected drought areas of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes are expected to continue during this period. 

    For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.

    Figures SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Figure 1

    SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 4. Maize prices in May 2016 vs the 5-year average

    Figure 2

    Figure 4. Maize prices in May 2016 vs the 5-year average

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 5a. September to October La Niña 9-year average as percentage of rainfall average

    Figure 3

    Figure 5a. September to October La Niña 9-year average as percentage of rainfall average

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    Figure 5b. December to March  La  Niña 9-year average as percentage of rainfall average

    Figure 4

    Figure 5b. December to March La Niña 9-year average as percentage of rainfall average

    Source: USGS/FEWS NET

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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