Severe floods will delay seasonal harvests in affected areas of the northern and central region

• Households directly impacted by the flooding are likely to face Stressed acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 2) in the central and northern areas of the country that received extremely heavy rainfall. Households that have been displaced by the flooding along the lower Licungo and Zambezi river basins are living in temporary accommodation centers and are only able to meet their minimal food requirements through humanitarian assistance. 

• While a comprehensive needs assessment is forthcoming by the joint Government and Humanitarian Country Team (HTC), the severity and high risk of further flooding in the central and northern river basins, suggests that food and non-food interventions will be required to avert worsening food security outcomes and to ensure the recovery of livelihoods among households in these areas.

• As the lean season progresses the food security conditions throughout parts of the country not impacted by flooding are stable. For this time of the year more households than usual are still consuming food stocks from their 2013/14 above-average production. 

• From January to June most of the households across the country will face Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) while poor households displaced by flooding within the Licungo and Zambezi river basins are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the typically grain deficit areas of the semi-arid and interior zone, the majority of households are expected to continue consuming their food reserves from the previous season, so acute food insecurity will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1). 

Current Situation

• Since the start of severe flooding due to abnormally heavy rains in early January 2015, thousands of people have been displaced and have had their livelihoods disrupted in areas along the lower Licungo, Zambezi, Messalo river basins. Some of these households that lost their houses are now living in accommodation centers and being provided assistance while others have found refuge in the homes of their relatives.
• As of January 26th, the National Center of Emergency Operations (CENOE) from the National Institute of Disaster Management (INGC) was estimating that a total of 157,172 people have been impacted by this season’s floods. According to INGC/CENOE the estimated death toll is 120, a total of 12,799 houses have been destroyed, and 950 classrooms are estimated to be damaged. Additional information on the impacts of the flooding is still forthcoming. 
• Given the recent floods in the central and northern provinces and the fact that the peak of the rainfall and cyclone season continues through February, the Council of Ministers through INGC has increased the institutional alert level from Orange to Red, which fully activates operations by CENOE and the National Civil Protection Unit (UNAPROC).
• Outside the flooded areas, acute food insecurity outcomes are stable throughout most of the country. As the lean season continues more households than usual are still consuming food stocks from their 2013/14 above-average production, and are also using typical livelihood strategies for this time of the year.
• Local markets have adequate food supplies. Food prices of most staple foods such as maize, rice, and cowpeas are close to the five-year average and generally affordable, allowing households that are mostly market-dependent during this time of the year to access food from local markets. Normally food prices are expected to peak in February. However, this year due to the late start of the season in most of the country, the peak period may extend until March.
• During the current rainfall season (2014/15), the rain started in late December instead of October/November in parts of the southern zone, particularly in the remote interior livelihood zones of Gaza and Inhambane. In the central and northern regions the rains were delayed by one to two months. An exception is Maputo province where rains started on time.
• According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MASA), despite the floods, to date the prospects for the 2014/15 agricultural season are good. Crops appear in various states of development and are progressing well. In the southern and central zone the level of planting was estimated to be 90 percent of planned area, while in the north by early January widespread rains had covered the whole region and the planting level was estimated to be 80 percent of planned.

Assumptions

The Food Security Outlook for January to June 2015 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

Agroclimatology

• Although rainfall this season started late and had a poor start, deficits observed in the first half of the season were largely neutralized by the rains that occurred in December and January. The CPC/IRI Consensus Probabilistic ENSO forecast suggests a gradual weakening of El Niño conditions while neutral conditions start setting in during the January to April period. Based on the current climate mode, the updated forecast by the National Institute of Meteorology indicates that between January and March the southern region has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to below-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country (including the productive areas in the central and northern zones) has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to above-normal rainfall.
• There is still the risk of flooding and cyclones since the peak of the season is in February. Until April, cyclone events or heavy winds are possible along the coastal areas, mainly between Nampula and Inhambane Provinces. While moderate to severe localized flooding are already occurring there is the possibility of more flooding in the central and northern river basins. The central river basins, including the Zambezi and Licungo and some northern rivers like the Messalo and Lugenda, have already exceeded the alert level. Additional flooding may delay the recovering process of the affected people.

Markets and Trade

• Maize supplies in most markets and at the household level are expected to remain adequate for this time of the year through March. Supply levels will improve when harvests are available during the second half of the outlook period (April-June). In the majority of areas that experienced a delayed start of season, most households will continue to consume their own crop production from last season and will likely be minimally dependent on markets.
• Technical analysis suggests that between January and March the actual maize price trends will continue to be 25-30 percent lower than the five-year average and will decrease after April when the harvest of new crops arrives. Overall, maize grain prices will remain closer to the five-year average and similar to last year’s prices in most markets throughout the outlook period.
• Maize prices across the country are expected to continue to follow seasonal trends. Between January and June, the flow of food commodities will continue to follow normal patterns. However, between January and March, further flooding and continued heavy rains may interrupt some access roads and this could cause a temporary disruption of some markets. This disruption could affect household food access by pushing up price levels.
• Normal and stable rice and cowpea prices patterns are expected throughout the outlook period.

Main Season Production

• Crops were planted late due to the late start of season in the southern and central zones which will delay the availability of the green harvest and will prolong market dependency for the majority of poor households.
• Recent crop losses due to flooding was localized and the seasonal harvest in these areas is expected to be delayed by 1-2 months (May/June), depending on how successful replanting will be after the floods. In areas of the country that are likely to experience rainfall deficits, reduced yields are possible. Seasonal prospects are still favorable in the areas situated away from shocks.
• Based on weather forecasts for the January to March period, conditions should allow for the replanting of crops. Reduced rainfall is expected from April to June and will benefit the maturing of seasonal crops.

Agricultural Labor

• Because of the current level of farming activities (including replanting and weeding), the agriculture labor opportunities are at near normal levels for this time of the year and are expected to continue to behave like this between January and March in areas not affected by flooding. From April to June, agriculture labor opportunities will be linked to harvest activities throughout the country.
• Replanting activities in the flood affected areas should spur agricultural labor opportunities between May and June.

Humanitarian Assistance

• Emergency food assistance needs are expected throughout the outlook period in the flood affected districts of Licungo, Zambezi, and other flooded basin areas. These needs will likely be covered by the Government of Mozambique and the HTC. Input and seeds distribution will also be provided timely to enable replanting where conditions permit.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Countrywide, the levels of acute food insecurity will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) for the majority of the rural poor households between January and February. This will be possible due to ongoing satisfactory cropping season in the bulk of the country, which will provide green foods and the main season harvest during the outlook period. In the southern region, particularly in Maputo and the coastal areas of Gaza and Inhambane Provinces, the green harvest is expected to occur in February. In the interior of Gaza and Inhambane, the green harvest is expected to take place a little after March. In much of the central and northern zones the harvest is expected in April and May, respectively. The above-average carry-over stocks from the previous agriculture season, purchases from local markets, and relatively average prices will enable food access for the majority of households before green foods become available. Additionally, the poor and very poor households in these areas will continue relying on a range of typical livelihood and coping strategies. Thus, households will face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity between January and March. From April to June, as the green foods and crops from the main harvest start to gradually become available, access to food for the majority of poor households will improve and the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity is expected.

Some households in the districts impacted by flooding will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes from January to June. Since the preliminary estimates of the people affected is less than 20 percent of each total district population the acute food insecurity for area classification is Minimal (Phase 1). Please refer to the areas of concern section for more details about the flood affected areas.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE ANALYSES FOR THE AREAS OF CONCERN PLEASE DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT.

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes those assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios estimating food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET reports the most likely scenario. Click here for more information.