Minimal acute food insecurity expected from January to June

• Most households across the country, including the area of concern, are experiencing Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1). Rural households are meeting their basic food requirements by accessing a variety of foods from previous cropping seasons, by expanding their typical livelihood strategies, and through market purchases.
• According to monitored markets, staple food prices, especially maize, are close to the five-year average. These stable prices are allowing most poor households to make the necessary market food purchases.
• Displaced households are facing acute food insecurity in areas affected by conflict in localized parts of Gorongosa, Chibabava, Maringue, Homoine and Funhalouro districts. Emergency humanitarian assistance is helping to minimize the needs of displaced people but it is unclear how long the assistance will be required and how the interruption of farming activities will impact main season harvests.
• Overall, household access to food stocks from the previous season, relatively affordable food prices, the early availability of green foods, and the start of the harvest from January to June will maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes throughout the country during the outlook period.

Current Situation

• Food security conditions are favorable or improving throughout most of the country. Overall, as the lean season progresses the levels of acute food insecurity are lower this year in comparison to previous years, although chronic food insecurity continues to affect poor households throughout the country.
• This is the time of the year when most poor households are relying on market purchases for food. FEWS NET’s monitored markets are adequately supplied and staple food prices, especially maize, are close to the five-year average in most markets. The exception is prices in Nampula and Tete where currently maize is 44 and 26 percent, respectively, above the average. However, their immediate substitutes namely rice, maize meal and cassava are close to the five-year average. These favorable staple food prices allow most households for easy access to food in local markets.
• In areas in the Limpopo Basin affected by floods earlier last year (including Bilene, Chibuto, Chokwe, Guija, and Xai-Xai Districts) current food security outcomes remain stable due to the late harvests from the massive post-flood planting. Also, in most of these areas, households have now started consuming green food from the 2013/2014 cropping season earlier than usual. This is particularly true for Maputo and Gaza provinces where green food is now widely available.
• Heavy rains are occurring in parts of the central region and some river levels have been rising, especially in Save, Buzi, Púnguè and Zambezi basins. The latest updated information from the National Directorate of Water (DNA) indicates that Búzi River has already exceeded the alert level though it is now decreasing. These high river levels are posing some threat to the flood prone areas along the major river basins. Other rivers have been oscillating and the Licungo River in Zambézia Province and Messalo River in Cabo Delgado Province both exceeded the alert level and are currently decreasing. Water management authorities will keep monitoring the basins and will issue warnings accordingly.
• According to the Ministry of Agriculture, until December 2013, 80 percent of planned planting for this season have already been accomplished in the south, 50 percent in the center and 30 percent in the north and crops are performing well so far. A late start occurred in Tete, Zambézia and Inhambane Provinces and crops are still emerging. In much of the southern region (Maputo and Gaza) most crops are now at maturing stage. The current heavy rains have affected nearly 600 hectares in Maputo and nearly the same area in Sofala Province, representing less than 1 percent of the total planted area. The Ministry of Agriculture is optimistic for a good 2013/14 agriculture season.
• In areas affected by conflict in localized parts of Gorongosa, Chibabava, Maringue, Homoine and Funhalouro districts among others, the displaced people are facing acute food insecurity. Assistance is helping to minimize the needs of the displaced, but it is still unclear how long this assistance will be required and where it will be needed. Currently, the exact number of households affected is unclear, but it is estimated to be much less than 20 percent of each district’s population.
• As a result of the localized conflict, government authorities are providing plots of land for households in some resettlement areas to rebuild their houses and land for farming. However, the time period for the main agriculture season has passed and households can only plant for the second season harvest, which is usually much smaller than the main season.

Assumptions

The Food Security Outlook for January to June 2014 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

Agroclimatology

• Although the SARCOF and ECMWF forecasts have been downgraded to normal to below normal rains, rainfall conditions on the ground are telling a different story. Current conditions are in concurrence with the updated seasonal forecast issued by the national Institute of Meteorology (INAM) in early January. The INAM forecast expects that from January to March most of central region of Mozambique including parts of northern Gaza and Inhambane Provinces and southern parts of Niassa and Nampula Provinces have higher probabilities of receiving above normal to normal1 rainfall. The rest of the country (including Maputo Province, southern parts of Gaza and Inhambane, Cabo Delgado and the northern parts of Niassa and Nampula Provinces) are expected to receive near normal to above normal rains.
• Although the forecast for above normal rains may cause localized flooding in major river basins of the central region, for the bulk of the country, the above normal to normal rainfall suggests favorable agroclimatic conditions that will increase the availability of income-generation opportunities from agricultural labor and will also increase the availability of water for both human and animal use.
• The availability of seasonal water during the first half of the scenario period (January-March) will enable the majority of households to continue to engage in agriculture activities of the main agriculture season of 2013/2014. During the second half of the season (April to June), the gradual cessation of rains will benefit the maturing process of seasonal crops.

Markets and Trade

• Generally most staple food prices, especially maize, have been following the seasonal trends. During the peak of the lean season in February, prices are expected to rise as a result of dwindling food stocks and increasing market food purchases. From March/April onwards, most food prices are expected to start decreasing as food stocks from the new harvested crops become available in local markets. It is assumed that rice prices will continue to remain stable based on recent trends, and all other food prices will follow a normal seasonal trend during the outlook period and generally remain near or above the five-year average.
• Between January and June, the flow of food commodities will continue to follow normal patterns. However, during the first half of the scenario period, heavy rains or flooding may interrupt some access to roads and this could cause a temporary disruption of markets. Additionally, conflict in localized are may also disrupt the normal flow of food commodities. This disruption could affect household food access by pushing up price levels.

Agricultural Labor

• Throughout the outlook period agriculture labor opportunities are expected to remain at normal levels. From January to March, weeding and the initial harvest in the south will provide much of the agriculture labor. From April to June, harvest and land preparation activities, along with planting for the second season will be much of the agriculture labor that is available.

Humanitarian Assistance

• WFP resources are allowing for the purchase of mixed commodities that will provide food assistance to 250,000 beneficiaries for 2-3 weeks. These commodities are approximately 16 percent of the minimum food requirements in the national contingency plan. The planned food ration is 400 g of maize meal, 60 g of pulses, 25 g of oil, and 50 g of CSB per day/person.
• It is possible that conflict in localized areas will continue throughout the outlook period, and that households may have to leave their villages and seek refuge in secure places.
• Distribution of seeds and other agriculture inputs is expected for the displaced households so that they can restart their agriculture activities and plant for the second season.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

Countrywide, the levels of acute food insecurity will be generally Minimal (IPC Phase 1) for the majority of the rural poor households during the outlook period. However, in localized areas in the central and southern region where conflict is occurring the number of displaced people is expected to grow and more humanitarian assistance will be required. The required emergency humanitarian assistance includes shelter, food and water, basic sanitation and health services. The ongoing humanitarian assistance, where it is provided, is only to cover a period of 15 days. These displaced people have their livelihoods disrupted including typical income and food sources. Recovery will only be possible after households manage to restore their own minimum basic livelihoods through provision of land to build their houses and farming activities. In this respect seed distribution is crucial to allow households take maximum advantage of moisture content from the current seasonal rains and focus on the second cropping season. Although the current number of displaced people in each of the above districts is still less than 20 percent of total district population, a prolonged military unrest will force more people to leave their villages to the resettlements pushing up the numbers. As the school opening is approaching, government must ensure that displaced children are integrated in the primary education system in the new resettlement areas.

In Tete, Zambezia and Inhambane Provinces the late planting will delay the availability of green food and the harvest by nearly a month. Main season crops will require an extended rainfall period (until the end of April) in order to fully complete their growing cycle.

Overall, from January to March most of the southern region (Gaza and Maputo Provinces) will maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of acute food insecurity. Generally, the poorer households will exhaust their food stocks and will start expanding their livelihood strategies to meet their food needs. Some of these strategies that poor households will start to use during this period include, intensification of brewing and the sale of traditional drinks for income, cutting and selling of poles and natural products such as grass, firewood, charcoal, and seeking casual labor (i.e. land preparation and planting). In conflict affected areas Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will persist as government authorities and partners continue to provide humanitarian assistance in affected areas. However, it is possible that inadequate assistance may force displaced households to resort in atypical coping strategies, including the depletion of their assets. From April to June the food security outlook is expected to improve greatly since the main harvest will begin in April throughout the country. These supplies will allow most rural households to replenish their granary with food stocks and improve their dietary intake.

Lower Limpopo Baixa Non Irrigation Scheme livelihood zone[1] in Gaza Province (covering parts of Chokwe, Guija, Chibuto, Bilene and Xai-Xai districts)

Current Situation

Significant rainfall occurred in late October and since this time the food security situation has remained stable. Recently, the availability of green food earlier than normal from the main agriculture season has improved the situation. Typically green food is expected in February but this year it is now available in most parts of the area. Most maize planted in October and November is now reaching the maturity. The main season harvest is expected in February. The seasonal rains have also increased the availability of water for both human and animal use.

Cropping activities like weeding and harvesting are providing normal levels of casual labor opportunities. Income generating livelihood strategies, including self-employment are also contributing to stabile food security outcomes among the poorest households.

Markets are adequately supplied and staple food prices remain below the five-year average. The reference markets in the basin (Chokwe and Xai-Xai) are being supplied mostly by local surpluses. In surrounding districts maize is also widely available in the local markets. The current maize prices in Chókwe, for instance, are below those of last year and those of the five-year average, and this improving  food access for the majority of households depending on market purchases.  Emergency food assistance is not taking place in the area, however there is ongoing safety-net programming for the chronically ill, including elders, widows, the disabled and households headed by children.

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

During the first half of the scenario period (January-March), green food availability and market purchases will gradually increase and food intake will start improving before the onset of the harvest in February/March. The seasonal increase of staple food prices will continue until reaching its peak in January/February, but because the expenditure on staple food is low and prices are expected to be close to average, households will be able to access food through market purchases. Rice is the immediate substitute and these prices have been quite stable and close to last year’s prices.

During the second half of the scenario period (April-June), the majority of households will be consuming food from own production and making less purchases from the market. Casual labor through land preparation, planting and weeding for the second season will also play an important role during this period. The seasonal decrease of staple food prices will continue until June and this will improve access to food purchases. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in this area throughout the outlook period.

Other Areas of Concern

Cyclone Prone Areas2[2] in Inhambane, Nampula, Sofala, and Zambézia Provinces

The food security situation among most rural households living along the coastal areas is generally stable, and households face Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1). Households are able to meet their basic food requirements without major changes in their food consumption, and they are able to maintain their normal livelihood strategies and preserve their assets. Households living along the coastal areas are typically food secure throughout the consumption year. Compared to the areas in the interior, these areas have more income earning opportunities, allowing for market purchases to supplement basic food needs. Other factors contributing to more stable food security conditions throughout the year include access to fisheries, and own crops (especially cassava, maize, and cashew) and improved access to markets.

Casual labor is widely available given the trade dynamic along the major corridors, including the main national road where large volumes of traded goods circulate throughout the year. The tourism industry is also concentrated along the coastal areas which provide a variety of employment related opportunities to many residents of the coastal zones. In the event of strong winds and/or category 1 cyclone between January and April, households in this areas are not expected to face income or food deficits. This is the case because households in these areas grow a combination of crops. This crop diversification also allows for income diversification, which would sufficiently allow households to meet their food needs throughout this scenario period. The majority of the households will face Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) and will be able to maintain their livelihoods through typical strategies. In the occurrence of a cyclone the poorer households could expand their typical livelihood strategies without having to resort in assets depletion in order to generate income for market purchases.

Table 1. Possible events over the next six months that could change the most-likely scenario.