Poor harvest in southern Mozambique expected to result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

• Most households across the country face None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, relying on their own food production and market purchases, and are expected to remain food secure through September 2022. However, below-average rainfall in southern Mozambique is expected to result in a poor to failed harvest, likely resulting in area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane, and southern Manica and Sofala from June 2022. In the southern Tete, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist due to irregular rainfall, which has resulted in multiple failed plantings. Households impacted by tropical storms Ana and Dumako are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, with affected households likely to recover through post-flood production if they have enough seeds to replant. In Cabo Delgado and parts of Niassa, conflict-affected areas are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), with areas receiving regular humanitarian food assistance likely to remain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).

• In northern Mozambique, rainfall since January has been regular and well-distributed, supporting crop growth following a 10 to over 40-day delay to the start of rainfall. However, in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane provinces, and southern Manica and Sofala provinces, a delayed start to effective rainfall at the start of the season and significantly below-average rainfall since late January is resulting in the wilting of crops, with crop failure likely as cumulative forecast rainfall is not expected to reach minimum crop requirements. National production is expected to be near the five-year average as crop growth in high production areas in central and northern Mozambique is in good condition despite a delayed start to the season. However, some uncertainty remains whether there is sufficient time for crops to reach maturity.

• From December 2021 to January 2022, maize grain prices had a mixed trend, with most prices remaining stable, atypical for the lean season. However, maize grain prices are likely being stabilized from the above-average maize grain harvest from the 2021/2022 marketing year, along with prices self-adjusting following the high prices in 2019 and 2020 following successive shocks. In most monitored markets, maize grain prices in January 2022 were 20-55 percent below last year's prices and 5-44 percent below the five-year average. However, in Montepuez, maize grain prices are 44 percent above the five-year average, driven by the negative impacts of the conflict in Cabo Delgado on the supply chain. As typical, maize meal and rice prices were stable from December 2021 to January 2022 in most monitored markets, with mixed trends compared to last year and the five-year average.

• In response to the conflict in Cabo Delgado and damage from Tropical Storms, Ana and Dumako, and flooding, the government and humanitarian partners are providing targeted humanitarian assistance to impacted households. In January 2022, WFP resumed the distribution of rations sufficient to meet up to 24 days of monthly kilocalorie needs to around 818,000 beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado and Nampula. These rations are expected to continue till the end of March, with a potential pipeline break in May unless further funding is secured. Other humanitarian organizations are focused on livelihood assistance. Although some IDPs have returned to their areas of origin, the conflict's volatility is keeping humanitarian assistance needs high as new locations within and around Cabo Delgado are attacked. 

Current Situation

Most poor households in rural areas continue to earn an average income through typical means, including the sale of crops, livestock, charcoal and firewood, and forest products. Poor households also sell cashew nuts and other seasonal products such as watermelon. However, in southern Mozambique, the anticipated below-average harvest is limiting poor households' access to income from agricultural labor and in-kind payments, as middle and better-off households are abandoning agricultural activities. The loss of agricultural labor opportunities- weeding and pre-harvesting typically occur in February- results in below-average income for poor households. To a lesser extent, there are also reports in southern Tete province that poor households have gone through successive failed planting attempts due to delayed rainfall; however, an average harvest is likely in the more productive parts of norther Tete province. Poor households are expanding self-employment activities to earn income, including collecting and selling natural products such as grass and firewood, building poles and reeds, producing and selling traditional beverages, and producing and marketing charcoal. However, income from charcoal production is below-average due to increased competition. When necessary, households are selling available livestock and poultry at average market prices. Although borders have re-opened with South Africa, remittances remain below average due to the reduction of employment opportunities in South Africa.

Market and Trade: From December 2021 to January 2022, maize grain prices have a mixed trend, with stable prices in the monitored markets in Maputo, Chókwe, Mutarara, Montepuez, and Lichinga, while maize grain prices increased 15-26 percent in the monitored markets of Maxixe, Massinga and Mocuba, and a 6 percent decrease in prices in Manica market. Typically, maize grain prices increase through the rainy season as market supplies decline due to an increase in market demand. However, the stable and decreasing trends are likely the result of the above five-year average availability of maize grain from the 2021/2022 season, along with prices self-adjusting to compensate for the high prices reached in 2019 and 2020 following successive shocks. Maize grain prices in January 2022 in most monitored markets were 20-55 percent below prices last year and 5-44 percent below the five-year average, except in Montepuez, where the price of maize grain was 44 percent above the five-year. The higher-than-average prices in Montepuez are likely driven by the conflict in Cabo Delgado that is affecting normal supply chains. As typical, maize meal and rice prices were stable in most monitored markets from December 2021 to January 2022, with some fluctuations due to localized supply and demand dynamics. Both maize meal and rice prices in January 2022 had a mixed trend compared to last year and the five-year average.

According to data from Index Mundi, Mozambique imported around 800,000 MT of wheat in 2021, with Ukraine and Russia a key source of wheat imports. Given the recent conflict in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on Russia, there is the potential for disruption to global cereal and fertilizer exports from both Ukraine and Russia. The likely magnitude of these disruptions is still being analyzed as events in Ukraine unfold. The potential impacts are further detailed in the Events that Could Change the Scenario.

Humanitarian Assistance: In January 2022, WFP resumed rations sufficient to meet up to 24 days of monthly kilocalorie needs to around 818,000 beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado and Nampula. These rations are expected to continue through March, with a potential pipeline break in May unless funding is secured. However, the distribution plan is subject to changes due to the availability of resources and the redirection of priorities. Other humanitarian organizations are focused on livelihood assistance, treatment of malnutrition, WASH activities, and educating communities on COVID-19 safety and treatment. Targeted humanitarian assistance is also taking place in areas affected by Tropical Storm Ana and floods caused by the dissipation of tropical Storm Dumako. Humanitarian needs are expected to remain high in conflict, cyclone, and drought-affected areas, even following the start of the harvest in April.

The February to September 2022 most likely scenario is based on the following national-level assumptions:

• The January to March 2022 rainfall is forecast to be below average in southern and central Mozambique. Based on current rainfall anomalies and forecasts, rainfall in southern Mozambique is expected to be 30 to 60 percent of average. There is an increased probability of above-average temperatures in southern Mozambique through March 2022, potentially negatively impacting cropping and pasture. The high temperatures are associated with below-average rainfall that has been received and is expected during this period. Cumulative rainfall is also expected to be below average in parts of northern Mozambique. An average number of cyclones strikes is most likely, with at least one more tropical cyclone strike likely in February or March.
• The national water supply is expected to be average to above average, as dam capacity levels are supported by average to above-average rainfall last year and average cumulative rainfall from October 2021 to January 2022 in central and southern Mozambique. Watersheds with moderate to high risk of flooding in February and March include Maputo, Umbelúzi, Incomáti, Limpopo, Búzi, Púnguè, Savane, and Licungo, particularly following heavy rainfall upstream.
• Favorable cropping conditions are expected in the 2021/2022 agricultural season in the central highland areas and Maputo province, except for areas affected by localized floods. A post-flood harvest is possible, but the harvest will be delayed. Significantly below-average to crop failure is expected in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane and the coastal area of Inhambane due to dryness and multiple failed planting attempts. Below-average crop production is also expected in southern Tete province due to a late start of effective rainfall and dryness. Despite the delay in the onset of rains in the north, regular and well-distributed rain is likely to provide around 800 mm of cumulative rainfall since the start of the rains in January, reaching the 600-800 mm minimum moisture requirement for maize production. In conflict-affected areas in Cabo Delgado, agricultural production will be well below average due to limited engagement from a lack of access to land and inputs for displaced households. As typical, damage from pests and diseases, including fall armyworm (FAW), grasshoppers, and rodents, is likely, particularly in areas affected by below-average rainfall.
• Driven by residual soil moisture, second-season production is expected to be average to above-average in Maputo province, close to average in the central region, and below-average in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane, and the southern and coastal areas of the northern region. In flood-affected areas, households with available seeds will replant following the recession of floodwaters.
• For the marketing year starting in April 2022, the expected national near-average harvest will result in near-average food availability for poor households. However, the harvest is likely to be delayed in parts of the country where households planted late. Exceptions include areas affected by shocks such as conflict, drought, cyclones, and floods, where food availability may be below average. However, this may be minimized by the inflow of products from surplus areas. It is anticipated that maize and rice imports will be similar to last year. Almost all national wheat and more than 50 percent of national rice needs will likely be imported.
• Trade flows of staple foods are expected to occur normally at typical volumes along major routes in central and southern regions due to average crop production in the 2021/2022 agriculture season. The central and northern markets will be primarily supplied by maize grain from local or nearby districts, while central zone markets will predominantly supply southern zone markets. In parts of Cabo Delgado, the flow of food commodities will be constrained due to the ongoing conflict. While prices for imported and processed commodities such as rice and maize meal are expected to remain more stable than bulk grain prices, short-term variations will be based on localized supply and demand dynamics.
• Cross-border trade with South Africa is expected to be close to average, in part due to the re-opening of all borders and the facilitation of trade for essential goods. Formal and informal cross-border trade with Zimbabwe is expected to be average to above-average, driven by demand for cheaper basic commodities from Mozambique (rice, spaghetti, flour, cooking oil), secondhand clothing, and other processed commodities. Maize exports to Malawi, both informal and formal, are expected to be average, as southern Malawi is typically a maize deficit area.

• Based on FEWS NET price projections, maize grain prices in the national reference market of Manica are expected to follow seasonal trends and gradually decline from February to July with the 2021/2022 harvest. Prices will then increase as market supply decreases and market demand increases gradually. Prices are likely to remain above the five-year average but are lower than last year. As typical, maize meal and rice prices are expected to remain more stable than bulk grain prices; but short-term variations will be driven by localized supply and demand dynamics.
• Rangeland resources are expected to remain close to average following rainfall in January and February. As typical, livestock body conditions will gradually improve with pasture availability during the rainy season. From May, pasture and livestock body conditions will deteriorate seasonally but remain at an average level throughout the scenario period. However, in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane and coastal areas of Inhambane, rangeland resources are expected to be below average.
• Wild food availability will remain near normal levels through September. The availability of green foods is expected to be timely and close to normal throughout the country, with a slight reduction in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane and the coastal area of Inhambane.
• The State of Public Calamity will continue indefinitely at the red alert level as long as there is a risk of spreading COVID-19 in Mozambique. The relaxation of many COVID-19 control measures is expected to increase economic activity in the country's private, informal, and public sectors. Greater economic activity is expected to increase income-generating opportunities for poor households, particularly in urban and peri-urban areas. The government is expected to continue the COVID-19 vaccination campaign during the scenario period.
• Agricultural labor opportunities are expected to be close to normal in rural areas. Poor households are expected to earn income through in-kind, cash, and other payment modalities, with payment in some cases occurring after the harvest, particularly in areas affected by shocks. Apart from the agricultural labor, households will continue to engage in self-employment activities to generate income for market purchases. Following the main annual harvest, rural households will gradually rely more on their own produce for food and income. However, in areas affected by shocks (floods, drought, and cyclones), income is likely to be below average due to crop losses, increased competition, and low demand from urban centers due to the economic impacts of COVID-19.
• Due to increasingly tight border control measures in South Africa, cross-border migration is likely to be below average. However, migration to urban areas in Mozambique will remain high.
• In Cabo Delgado, while insurgents will continue to occasionally evade capture and launch attacks on poorly secured villages, the likelihood of high impact, high casualty attacks in urban centers will remain low amid the continued presence of counter-insurgency security forces. Although some IDPs have started to return to their homes to prepare for the next agricultural season, most IDPs are unlikely to return due to continued insecurity. With basic livelihoods disrupted, IDPs are expected to remain dependent on emergency humanitarian assistance to fill gaps in food consumption.

From February to May 2022, most poor households in Mozambique are expected to face None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity, with access to green food in February and March, followed by the harvest of the main staple crops. As the harvest progresses, households will gradually reduce their dependence on market purchases. However, in most of the interior of Gaza and Inhambane provinces, poor households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as they will be atypically dependent on market food purchases due to the late and likely significantly below-average to failed crop harvest. In these areas, below-average income due to increased competition is expected to limit the purchasing power of poor households. In southern Tete Province, poor households with surviving late crops from multiple planting attempts will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, as most will not yet be able to access their own harvest and will continue to rely on food purchases from local markets. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will also prevail in areas affected by Tropical Storms Ana and Dumako due to the damage to infrastructure and the disruption of typical livelihood activities. Households are unlikely to afford non-food items, with the worst-affected households likely in need of food assistance until the post-flood harvests. However, some households are unlikely to recover until the main harvest in 2023. In conflict-affected areas in Cabo Delgado and parts of Niassa, the impact of the conflict is expected to limit income-earning opportunities from agricultural or casual labor opportunities. Areas more directly impacted by conflict are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) except in areas where humanitarian assistance is Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) through September 2022.

From June to September, most poor households will be accessing food from their own production and will continue facing None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, in the interior areas of Gaza and Inhambane provinces and southern Manica and Sofala provinces, the expected crop failure from the main season will force most poor households to intensify their typical livelihood strategies such as selling livestock, selling firewood and charcoal, and consuming wild foods. The poorest, who do not own or have few animals and lack the capacity to produce charcoal, will be forced to reduce spending on non-food items and adopt consumption-based coping strategies such as skipping meals, reducing meal sizes, consuming less preferred food varieties, and increasing the consumption of wild foods to minimize food consumption gaps. However, in July, the poorest households will likely begin engaging in more severe coping strategies as access to income and food stocks decline, such as withdrawing children from school unless meals are provided at school or sending households members to eat elsewhere. Poor households are expected to require food assistance to avoid depleting essential livelihood assets, driving the emergence of area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes long before the start of the lean season in October/November. In southern Tete, the likely late and well-below harvest will minimize the impacts of food shortages, maintaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In areas affected by Tropical Storms Ana and Dumako, post-flood harvests from June onwards will help to minimize food gaps, but most poor households who have lost all or most of their livelihoods (tools, homes, household goods, livestock), will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the scenario period. 

Table 1. Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario. 

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