Key Message Update

Delayed and erratic rains and high food prices to prolong Stressed outcomes

November 2015
2015-Q4-1-1-MZ-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • While the lean season continues, the majority of rural households are able to meet their basic food needs by expanding their typical livelihood strategies. From November to December, Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) will prevail throughout the country. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2 and Phase2!) outcomes will persist in the interior of Gaza, Inhambane, and southern Sofala provinces. Social safety-net programming and humanitarian assistance is currently ongoing in the areas of concern and is expected to continue until the next harvest in March/April 2016. From January to March 2016 Stressed (IPC Phase 2 and Phase 2!) outcomes will continue for poor households.

  • With the effective rainfall yet to be established in much of the country, erratic rains have been occurring since the beginning of the second half of November, particularly in Maputo province and the coastal areas of Gaza and Inhambane provinces. However, most drought-affected areas in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane are still facing dry conditions due to the ongoing El Nino. Rainfall amounts and distribution during November are key for the start of the season.

  • Maize grain prices between September and October continued to be above average and increasing in most markets. Mocuba had the largest increase of 33 percent, followed by a 20 percent jump in Chókwe. The increasing trend reflects a consistent dwindling of maize stocks in the surplus producing regions and increased consumer demand. When compared to the previous year, this year’s maize grain prices were higher in almost all monitored markets. 

  • The Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition’s Vulnerability Assessment Group (SETSAN/GAV) is currently carrying out a countrywide vulnerability assessment. Findings from this assessment are expected to be available in early December and will provide an updated estimate of food insecure populations and where humanitarian assistance is needed. 

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for October.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics