Normal start to the 2012/13 rainy season

• Food insecurity is Minimal (IPC Phase 1) for the majority of the rural households across the country, and is expected to remain favorable through March 2013. However, due to constraints in food access, parts of Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Funhalouro, Panda and Machanga districts  will  likely be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period. 

• During the second half of October rainfall began in most of the southern region, but has yet to start in the central and northern provinces. Rainfall levels have been normal in the south, and above normal in and around Maputo, creating conditions that are beneficial for seasonal planting. 

• Due to an early on-set of the rainy season in the southern provinces of Maputo and Gaza, crops are expected to be readily available for purchase in markets in January. The early arrival of crops in some areas is not expected to change projected food security outcomes.  

The projected food security outcomes in the October Outlook remain valid for the remainder of the outlook period (November-March). The majority of rural households throughout the country are able to meet their basic food needs.

• Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes can be found in parts of the country that were affected by drought during the 2011/12 main harvest. Within Chicualacuala, Chigubo, Funhalouro, Panda and Machanga districts, very poor and poor households are currently facing difficulties in accessing food through market purchases due to low and unreliable income levels.
• At this time of the year food prices typically increase due to reduced stocks. The flow of staple food is expected to continue to follow its typical pattern, and throughout the remainder of the consumption year food prices are expected to remain above the five-year average.
• According to satellite rainfall estimates, combined with the ground information from the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), the 2012/13 rainy season has started in Mozambique. An earlier on-set of the season was observed in the southern provinces of Maputo and Gaza.
• For the majority of the country rainfall amounts are normal. As a result, farmers have started the cropping season and water sources have been replenished. Continued rainfall is crucial in order to avoid crop loss or wilting of newly planted crops.  

Most of the assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the October Outlook period have remained unchanged, with the exception of a national-level agroclimatology assumption about the 2012/13 seasonal climate outlook forecast. This original assumption included a forecast of near-normal to above-normal rainfall for the northern part of the country, including the northern portion of the central region, and normal to below-normal rains for the rest of the country between October and December.  The updated forecast indicates that the climatic situation will be similar to the previously issued forecast for October to December 2012, except that the Maputo province and the southern part of Gaza province will have increased chances of receiving normal to above-normal rains. This updated assumption is not expected to change the projected food security outcomes for the outlook period. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the October Outlook. 

• Based on assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the October Outlook period (November-March), it is found that food security has not deteriorated and is expected to remain stable and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) for most of the country except for the arid and semi-arid zones, where food security is expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until March 2013.
• The majority of the households will meet their basic food needs through the consumption of their own production and reliance on markets. The poorer households rely on a range of typical coping strategies including reduced non-food expenditures, seeking casual labor (especially for land preparation and planting), and sale of forestry products.
• As anticipated, the 2012/13 rainy season began normally. Given that the rainfall had an earlier on-set in parts of the southern region, maize and other crops will be readily available in January and will supply the markets earlier than expected.
• The expected level of rainfall will allow for an expansion of opportunities for agricultural labor, particularly weeding, during the harvest (February-March).