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Most markets in the country continue to experience price decreases

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Mozambique
  • May 2014
Most markets in the country continue to experience price decreases

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  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outlook through September 2014
  • Key Messages
    • Currently, Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) are generally found across the country. Food availability and access at the household level remains adequate throughout the country as the harvest continues. In the areas affected by flooding and heavy rains earlier this year, humanitarian assistance will continue until July.
    • As the new harvested maize crops continue to supply local markets, maize prices between March and April declined moderately and are approaching the five-year average. Given that 2012/2013 food stocks are still available in markets, when the new harvest maize supplies reach markets in the upcoming months, prices are expected to continue to decrease.
    • From June to September, food security outcomes for the majority of households is expected to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and stable due to the availability of food reserves at the household level from the main and second season harvest, as well as more affordable food prices.

    Current Situation
    • As the harvests from the main 2013/14 season continue, food availability and access for most rural households across the country is favorable and Minimal acute food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) are expected to continue through September 2014. In the areas affected by mild floods and heavy rains earlier this year, humanitarian assistance will continue. Currently the World Food Program and partners are assisting about 88,000 beneficiaries in the provinces of Sofala, Zambézia, Gaza and Maputo through their food for work program. The pipeline is sufficient to assist those in need and will last until July 2014
    • Households in most regions are consuming the typical number of meals per day, with diversified food   including vegetables. Households are still able to access sufficient food without resorting to unusual coping strategies and livelihoods strategies are typical and preserved. 
    • The second season, which is of particular importance in the southern and central regions, is thus far progressing satisfactorily due to the residual moisture from the receding flood water, along with sufficient dewfall and relatively low temperatures. On average, the second cropping season makes up about 15 to 30 percent of household annual food needs, and also contributes to overall household cash income, particularly from vegetable sales. Second season harvests are normally expected between July and September, but there are indications that early vegetable planting are currently being harvested, which constitutes an immediate source of food and income. 
    • Consistent with seasonal trends, from March to April, prices went down or remained stable in most markets in response to the increasing availability of seasonal food from the main harvest. Between March and April, maize prices decreased by 29 percent in Nampula and are now approaching the five-year average. Prices are expected to continue to decrease in Nampula as the newly harvested maize crops supply local markets. Maize production from the 2013/2014 cropping season in Nampula Province is estimated to be average to above-average and this is expected to lower maize prices closer to the five-year average levels. Normal post-harvest price trends are expected in the remainder of the markets across the country. Based on historical patterns, food prices start to increase in the month of July. 
    • The weekly Agricultural Markets Information System (SIMA) bulletin released on May 14th indicates that in various markets prices are likely to drop further as the demand for commodities decreases. Households are consuming mostly their own production. In addition, the flow of maize from high production zones to the rest of the country remains strong since the onset of the harvest. The southern region markets are mainly supplied by maize originating from the central region, while the central and northern markets are mainly supplied by maize originating from their own regions. 

    Updated Assumptions

    The assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the April-September Outlook period are still valid and are unlikely to change over the scenario period. Thus, the overall projected food security outcomes for the outlook period are not expected to change. A full discussion of the scenario is available in: Mozambique Food Security Outlook for April to September 2014


    Projected Outlook through September 2014

    Given that the assumptions made for the April-September Outlook remain unchanged, and that food availability and access at this time is adequate, it is expected that the majority of households in the country will face Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) from June to September. The households in the country will be able to meet their basic food needs mostly through the consumption of their own production from both the main and second season harvests, and through purchases of affordably priced food in markets. 

    About This Update

    This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. 

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 4

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source:

    Figure 1. Nominal retail prices for maize in a representative market in the north.

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Nominal retail prices for maize in a representative market in the north.

    Source: SIMA

    Figure 2. Nominal retail prices for maize in a representative market in the south.

    Figure 3

    Figure 2. Nominal retail prices for maize in a representative market in the south.

    Source: SIMA

    Figure 4

    Source:

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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